Author Topic: Yes or No?  (Read 7364 times)

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Online Taman Tun

Yes or No?
« on: September 04, 2014, 09:54:30 AM »
The Scottish Independence referendum is fast approaching and all the politicos in Westminster are getting extremely worried that the Scottish people are likely to ignore all their sensible advice to vote No.  The No campaign was going extremely well until popular former Prime Minister Gordon Brown started campaigning on their behalf.  So the other day I went into downtown Korat (well, George & Dragon actually) to gauge the opinions of the expat Scottish community.  As a result of my survey I can confidently predict we will have a Yes result.  (Survey size 1, but that voter has already sent off his postal vote, giving 100 per cent confidence in my findings)
Personally I am very much hoping for a Yes vote as it will mean the demise of the terrible HMRC office in Glasgow from where I receive constant demands for money.
“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” - H L Mencken

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? ♦ Pound slumps to 10-month low £
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2014, 04:03:05 PM »
Pound slumps to 10-month low after Scottish yes campaign takes poll lead

Sterling falls sharply to lowest level since November 2013 as surge in support for independence rattles markets

Yes campaigners in Berwick upon Tweed at the weekend. Sunday’s YouGov poll showed the yes side leading for the first time. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

The pound has slumped to a 10-month low after the yes campaign took the lead in the opinion polls just 10 days before the Scottish independence vote.

Westminster leaders will on Monday scramble to agree an offer of more powers to Scotland if it remains within the union in an effort to prevent a yes vote in next week's referendum.

But what the chancellor, George Osborne,'described as "a credible timetable and process" to develop further devolved powers did not prevent a wave of early selling on the foreign exchanges on Monday morning.

Sterling fell sharply, losing almost one and a half cents against the US dollar to reach $1.618, the lowest level since November 2013.

The surge of support for independence also sent jitters through the stock market, as shares in companies with large Scottish interest suffered sharp falls in early trading.

Royal Bank of Scotland was the biggest faller in the FTSE 100, down more than 3% in early trading. Energy group SSE (Scottish & Southern Electricity) fell 2.5%, Lloyds Banking Group dropped 2.2%, Standard Life was down 2% and Aberdeen Asset Management fell 1.5%.

The FTSE 100, which last week reached a 14 year high, was down 18 points, at 6837.

The surge in support for the pro-independence campaign in recent days has rattled the financial markets, wiping 3.5% off the value of the pound in the last month. Until recently, many analysts were confident that the no side would win the vote on 18 September, but Sunday's YouGov poll – showing the yes side leading for the first time – has shifted perceptions.

Uncertainty over what currency an independent Scotland would use, the future of its financial sector, and what share of the UK national debt it would take on are all pushing down the value of the pound.

Rob Wood, UK chief economist at Berenberg, fears that a yes vote would cause "some serious short-term pain".

"Some financial firms may move headquarters and parts of their business south. More importantly, uncertainty about currency arrangements and the status of Scotland in the EU would spike immediately," Wood said.

The pound could slide further on markets if Scotland does vote for independence, Michael Hewson of CMC Markets warned.

"One thing is certain, if we get this sort of volatility on the prospect of a yes vote, can you imagine the reaction if we do get a yes vote? It's not likely to be pretty.

The rush to make a new offer on devolution, promised within hours of publication of the shock poll result on Sunday, triggered accusations of panic and bogus bribes.

Osborne said the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats would agree to discuss proposals involving "much greater" fiscal autonomy for Scotland. The details could be announced as soon as Tuesday.

Offering Scotland more power over tax rates, spending and welfare, the proposals would be ready for implementation in the first Westminster parliamentary session after the 2015 general election, the chancellor added.

No campaign sources said the move to set out this process just 11 days before the vote had long been planned, though it emerged the morning after a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times showed a two-point lead for yes, once undecided voters were eliminated.

Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign, said he always expected the polls to narrow close to the referendum, saying: "We are in the position now when every voters could potentially tip the balance."

He refused to go into any detail of what the British party leaders would offer, saying: "The additional powers coming to the Scottish parliament was announced by the party leader north and south of the border some time ago. People have said they want to know the process and timetable and that is something that is going to be announced this week."

He acknowledged that the no campaign needed to appeal to the heart as well as the head but argued the big question is what impact separation would have on family finances and whether Scottish people would be able to afford the NHS and pensions.

Earlier the former Labour first minister Henry McLeish criticised the tone of the pro-union campaign.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I am voting no … [but] I have been a critic of the campaign so far and that has really been for two reasons; one is tone, the campaign so far has been narrow, it's been negative.

"It's also been patronising. It's really lacked emotion, lacked passion and lacked soul."

The referendum was likely to have been the dominating topic as David Cameron spent the weekend at Balmoral, though Buckingham Palace reiterated the Queen remained neutral on the subject. She will be in Scotland on the day of the vote but the palace said that was part of her normal schedule.

The Osborne initiative had a shaky start when the Scottish secretary, Alistair Carmichael, was forced to counter the impression left by the chancellor that the package itself would include greater devolution of powers than already agreed by the parties in a joint statement in June.

Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories have differing devolution packages, and this week's initiative is designed to remind voters of the commitment to so-called devo max, as well as the process that guarantees it is delivered.

"The aim is to make sure the Scottish people believe this package is credible, has a timetable and will be delivered on," said one Scottish government source. Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond accused Osborne of "a panicky last-minute measure because the yes campaign is winning on the ground". He added: "The evidence for that is overwhelming."

He said: "We're expected to believe that secretly, behind the scenes, after hundreds of thousands of people have already voted, there is a radical new deal on the constitution that is agreed by the Westminster parties. Well, there is a radical new deal on the constitution – it's called independence."

Cameron knows his own future as prime minister may lie in the hands of Scottish voters. Although he has insisted his own career is not on the ballot paper, he knows he will be blamed by some of his own party for pressing ahead with the high-risk referendum.

For Labour, the prospect of the permanent loss of as many as 40 Labour MPs representing Scottish seats would be "a disaster", the former Labour cabinet minister David Blunkett openly admitted on Sunday.

Labour politicians fear the vote for separation is in part driven by a disillusionment with politics among core Labour voters, as a well as pessimism about Labour's chances of being elected in 2015. Gordon Brown claimed Labour had for some weeks been pressing for a more definitive statement about the timetable for the delivery of extra powers.

He said: "I think when people see the full scale of the powers the Scottish parliament will have, and our ability to do things while retaining the benefits of the UK, including the currency, I think they are going to decide on the extended powers of the Scottish parliament within the UK."

Brown added: "I hope the other parties will support what is a Labour proposal, a Labour initiative, so that these powers are guaranteed, and so a no vote doesn't mean nothing happens, a no vote means we move quickly to the delivery of extra powers."

He is due to launch a six-day, 30-destination tour of Scotland's heartlands aimed at convincing undecided voters of the case for a patriotic no vote.

If Scots vote yes …

• Alex Salmond will confirm his "Team Scotland" of negotiators – expected to include his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, along with senior cross-party figures – within a week or so. David Cameron, if he has ridden out calls for his resignation, will set up a similar negotiating team for the remainder of the UK.

• To minimise market instability and avoid a run on the pound, Cameron must confirm quickly the UK's stance on the status of sterling and the splitting of debt with Scotland. Other subjects for immediate discussion would include dividing up oil and gas reserves.

• All 28 EU states are expected to meet by the end of 2014 to give the European commission a mandate to investigate Scotland's EU membership. Salmond must also begin talks with Nato. Both situations are without precedent and the negotiations are likely to be complex and protracted.

• Before the general election campaign begins in earnest, the UK parties will have to decide what role Scotland's 59 MPs at Westminster will have after May 2015. They will technically remain in the House of Commons, but only until independence day.

• Salmond has set midnight on 23 March as the target date to declare Scotland an independent country. Holyrood will then be dissolved for the first elections to an independent parliament.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Online Taman Tun

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2014, 10:41:40 AM »
The Westminster politicos are getting even more desperate.  Their latest ploy is to fly the Saltire on 10 Downing Street for the rest of the referendum campaign.  It will be embarrassing taking it down on 19th September.

I do not care about the exchange rate.  All I want to see is the HMRC office in Glasgow being torn apart brick by brick.   
“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” - H L Mencken

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? ♦ Five reasons why sterling will fall further £
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2014, 01:35:10 PM »
Five reasons why sterling will fall further between now and the Scottish referendum

The pound has taken a battering as worries about the Scottish vote increase. It could be just the start

The pound is under pressure ahead of the Scottish independence referendum later this month

Opinion polls over the weekend, which showed the Yes vote in the Scottish referendum creeping into the lead for the first time since the start of 2014, have spooked the markets and in particular sterling, which has fallen against both the dollar (against which it has reached a 10-month low) and the euro. But things could easily get worse for the pound before the vote on September 18. Here’s why.

1. Markets are reacting to growing uncertainty about the outcome to the referendum. And the closer we get to the vote, the greater the uncertainty. This can clearly be seen in one-month implied volatility for sterling/dollar, which is essentially the cost of buying insurance on currency swings over the next few weeks. It is sky-rocketing.

Getting worried: one-month implied volatility for sterling/dollar

2. The closer we get to the vote, the more focus there will also be on which sectors may or may not be affected by a Yes vote and the broader economic ramifications for the UK. The reams of data now being pored over by the analysts in the City suggest the pain of a break up will be both broad and deep. Credit Suisse has predicted that end of the Union would likely throw a newly independent Scotland "into a deep recession", Deutsche Bank has said “it could easily derail the UK economic recovery”, and Societe Generale has said investors are already pulling money out of UK equity funds.

3. The potential impact of Yes vote (or even a narrow No vote) on the UK economy may well stay the hands of the hawks on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. This could push potential interest rate rises further out into the future. Generally speaking imminent interest rate rises will help boost a currency (as is happening to the US dollar at the moment); cutting rates or keeping them low for longer could further weaken the pound.

4. Investors have started betting against the pound, with BlackRock, the world’s largest investment manager, recently saying it was shorting sterling by buying various derivatives. For investors this is a binary bet – it’s a yes or no vote. If enough believe that the potential risk is too great, then the weight of money betting against sterling could build up to the point that it effectively becomes self-fulfilling prophecy.

The pound versus the dollar over the last three days

5. Even if there’s a No vote come September 18, next year’s General Election and then a potential referendum on membership of the European Union will mean that political risk remains firmly on the radar for investors. This would suggest that any relief rally in sterling would potentially be short lived.

This is not all bad news. UK plc derives almost 75pc of total sales/revenues/profits from overseas, according to Citigroup, so a weaker pound might be a net benefit. But, as the same bank says, the history of the union has been kind to UK equity investors. Since the Acts of Union were passed by the Parliament of England and Parliament of Scotland in 1706 and 1707 respectively, UK equities have returned around 12,700,000,000pc.

It seems a bit of a shame to end such a spectacular run.

Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Roger

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2014, 02:24:13 PM »
Well look on the bright side Guys !
For anyone thinking of bailing out of this paradise - you'll be getting more GBP on funds repatriated .............
However, last time I brought GBP into Thailand I got Baht 54 ! Looks more like 49 next time.
Sobering to recall I bought my own house at Baht 46 !!
Mai pen lai

Offline coolkorat

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Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2014, 04:07:06 PM »
This is an entirely polically-generated situation: a weak pound favours exports.

The 'No' vote is much firmer than the press will let on: it suits UK business to be trading down when the Eurozone is in crisis. In different news : Why the Baht is strong is a total mystery - and why they want to keep it strong even more of a mystery.

My prediction: Scotland votes No. A brief hiatus whilst this news digests. Then Sterling begins a bull run.

Online Taman Tun

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2014, 05:14:32 PM »
Guido has just pointed out a significant difference in the English and Scottish editions of the Daily Mail. 

These words of wisdom by Simon Heffer did not appear in the Scottish edition:-

“The English, especially, will wonder why our leaders feel the need to suck up to a nation that sponged off our largesse consistently over the past 307 years, yet is still not satisfied… If [the Scots] really do feel the English are so toxic for them, there is nothing left to say except: clear off, good riddance and tell us where to send the bill for more than 300 years of subsidy.”

Wonder why?
“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” - H L Mencken

Offline audi

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2014, 11:18:08 PM »
The U K betting is today at 9/4 ON  a no vote---so much for the polls !

Offline Roger

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2014, 07:06:42 AM »
Audi - I thought it was just the ONE poll - 'YouGov' - that showed a 'Yes' lead. All the others were still 'No'.
But 'YouGov' and the narrowing of the lead in other polls triggered alarm bells everywhere !
TT - Simon Heffer in cynical stance, but I wonder how the subsidy measures against decades of North Sea oil revenues ?
Coolkorat - I agree that the GBP will soon rise back against the Baht - before December hopefully when I need to bring out some dosh !

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2014, 08:33:14 PM »
The 'No' voters just in front, says poll

Scottish independence: £17 bn reportedly drained from UK economy as secession fears grow

Almost £17 billion has been pulled out of the UK economy in the last month amid concern over the Scottish independence referendum.

A report, by London-based consultancy CrossBorder Capital, claimed it was the biggest drain of financial assets since the Lehman crisis in 2008.

The news comes as the economic future of an independent Scotland takes centre stage in the increasingly bitter independence debate.

With just six days left until Thursday’s vote, nationalists have accused David Cameron of orchestrating a scare campaign with business leaders to frighten voters into keeping the union.

But No campaigners insist there are serious flaws in Alex Salmond’s economic plan for an independent Scotland and separation brings financial uncertainty.

Yes campaigners are pushing back against firms saying they may move operations out of Scotland if it secedes by threatening nationalisation.

Jim Sillars, the former deputy leader of Salmond’s Scottish National Party (SNP), warned of a “day of reckoning” for oil giant BP and finance companies.

“This referendum is about power, and when we get a 'Yes' majority we will use that power for a day of reckoning with BP and the banks,” he was quoted by Scottish media as saying.

“BP, in an independent Scotland, will need to learn the meaning of nationalisation, in part or in whole, as it has in other countries who have not been as soft as we have been forced to be.”

In BBC radio interview on Saturday, he afterwards said that nationalisation was not officially on the table.

The chief executive of BP, Bob Dudley, had said Scottish independence would cause his company “uncertainties” over its North Sea industry.

“As a major investor in Scotland – now and into the future – BP believes that the future prospects for the North Sea are best served by maintaining the existing capacity and integrity of the United Kingdom,” he added.

Mr Sillars claimed the heads of BP and similar companies were “rich men in cahoots with a rich English Tory Prime Minister to keep Scotland’s poor poorer through lies and distortion."

He also said banks such as Standard Life would face tougher employment laws after a vote for independence.

Major banks, oil companies and supermarkets have been among the companies voicing concern about secession, especially as uncertainty about keeping the pound and a central bank continues.

Deutsche Bank compared a vote for independence to Winston Churchill's decision to return the pound to the Gold Standard, which helped bring on the Great Depression.

"These decisions - well-intentioned as they were - contributed to years of depression and suffering and could have been avoided had alternative decisions been taken," David Folkerts-Landau, its chief economist, said in a note to clients.

"Foreign investors come to Scotland because they rely on a predictable investment environment. All of this comes from a united Great Britain."
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? ♦ Kim Jong-un feeling positive about a Yes vote
« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2014, 03:12:47 PM »
North Korea is feeling 'positive' about Scottish independence

Alex Salmond's campaign has attracted Pyongyang's attention 

Kim Jong-un is feeling positive about a Yes vote in Scotland and is looking to trade with Scotland if it gains independence, Pyongyang representatives have reportedly said.

Choe Kwan-il, managing editor of the Choson Sinbo newspaper told The Telegraph he believes independence "would be a very positive thing for Scotland".

"I believe that every person has the right to be a member of an independent nation, to have sovereignty, to live in peace and to enjoy equality," he said. "And I believe that a majority of Scots feel the same and will vote for independence."

Choson Sinbo is a Tokyo-based publication printed in both Korean and Japanese. It is published by the General Association of Korean Residents (GAKR), a pro-North Korea representative body for Koreans living in Japan. The GAKR has close ties to North Korea and is often described as the country's de-facto embassy in Japan.

Choe told the paper it has not yet reported on the referendum, but will do so when it finishes.

"North Korea is rich in natural resources and we like the taste of Scotch whisky, so we can be beneficial to each other," he added.

So Chung-on, director of the International Affairs Bureau of GAKR of Japan, said he did not know if the referendum had been reported in North Korea, but that if Scotland does become independent it "almost certainly" will.

"The result will be very important and if the Scots do vote to become independent, then North Korea will be prepared to respond to that," he said.

The people of Scotland are voting on independence on 18 September.

On Thursday, David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband arrived in Scotland to campaign against succession after poll results showed the gap between yes and no supporters was narrowing.

Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Online Taman Tun

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2014, 01:29:14 PM »
So today is the big day.  I am hoping for a Yes result so that the Glasgow HMRC office gets closed.  Attached is Alex cartoon from the Daily Telegraph which has a similar tax angle.  The pubs are open all day today in Scotland so no doubt that will lead to a good rammy or two.  So if you are reading this in Scotland please go and vote Yes right away.  Remember:- Vote early, vote often.
“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” - H L Mencken

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2014, 03:57:57 PM »
The changes if yes - just a few

Shropshire Village Will Become Centre of UK if Scotland Became independent

Could independent Scotland become a backdoor into England

Britain may have to re-think the Union Jack

Britain has 191 embassies and high commissions across the world.
It would costs millions for an independent Scotland to try and establish even a tenth of this representation.

Royal Mail currently delivers anywhere in Britain for a single price, under what is called the ‘universal service obligation’ But an independent Scotland would be forced by EU law to establish its own postal service.

Will every single Scottish car be fitted with a new licence plate.

                                                                   Where is Scotland again

Where is Scotland again? In search of that border... | Channel 4 News
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Online Taman Tun

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2014, 05:45:17 PM »
Thanks Thaiga for posting the Channel 4 News piece.  It clearly demonstrates the negative approach adopted by the UK press and media. I do not think that many Yes voters will be deterred by the thought of having to change their number plates!
“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” - H L Mencken

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? ♦ is there a secret oilfield near Shetland
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2014, 09:22:35 PM »
Could Scotland Have An Untapped Oil Field In The Shetlands?

David Cameron last July made a short and subtle visit to Shetland to announce a new household energy deal. But, rumours state that he was in fact inspecting a new oilfield at Clair Ridge.
The worth of this new oilfield is claimed to be so valuable that independent Scotland would be booming. Nationalist were aware of this theory making it viral, saying it was being covered up not to sway the referendum.
Being such a bold claim and having little evidence to suggest its truth, voting yes on the whim because of hearing this would be outright stupid. Its like moving to Mars because you heard there might be oxygen there.
You’re f**ked if it were wrong.

More here:
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Online Taman Tun

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2014, 08:13:25 AM »
Results no looking good.
“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” - H L Mencken

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2014, 11:20:06 AM »
the "No" camp has 56 percent of the vote although the biggest areas have yet to declare.

Also sterling has rose sharply ;D
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? ♦ English tourists don't want to go to Scotland
« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2014, 11:35:47 AM »
English tourists don't want to go to Scotland "whatever the result of the vote"

LONDON, England - English tourists are cancelling holidays to Scotland because they fear "ill feeling" towards them after the referendum, it emerged today.

Travel firms north of the border say holiday-makers have contacted them saying they don't want to go to Scotland whatever the result of the vote.

It was also claimed other English travellers have also cancelled planned breaks because they say they no longer want to support Scotland if it becomes independent.

Amber Swinton, property manager at Unique Cottages, said: "We have had numerous phone calls from customers stating that if we do become independent then they will no longer we willing to support Scotland and won’t be returning for a holiday.

"But of more concern is that people are cancelling holidays they had booked for next year irrelevant of the outcome of the vote."

She said her company usually had a number of repeat customers from England who booked their Scottish summer holidays immediately after returning from their last one, who had not done so this year.

"A large proportion of our market is from England, as is the case for many other tourism companies like us," she said. "We have a lot of clients who are passionate about Scotland, who holiday here every year, who have not come back yet this year, which is unusual. It is very worrying."

Ms Swinton told The Scotsman her company had been deluged with emails from concerned tourists from England.

"Reluctantly we are going to cancel our holiday in Scotland due to all the unrest there," said one English holidaymaker.

"As the split for Independence is so close which ever way it goes tomorrow, there will be a lot of unhappy people there and do not wish to be taking our holidays where there may be any ill feeling towards the English."

David Smythe, chairman of the Association of Scotland’s Self-Caterers, said: “People will always want to visit Scotland, no matter which way it goes," he said. “We are a must-visit country and we always will be.

"However, it is very divisive in Scotland at the moment and the rest of the UK has only just woken up to what has been going on here for two years, which has panicked everybody."

A spokesman said VisitScotland hoped the five million trips made by English visitors to Scotland each year would "continue to increase".

Meanwhile, a survey of 4,000 Europeans by GoEuro has found regions that seek independence have become drawn to Scotland as a tourist destination.

The study found Belgium has the highest number of citizens, 68 per cent, who now view Scotland as a more appealing holiday destination in light of the independence debate, followed by Spain with 18 per cent.

Significantly, both countries have long histories of internal separatist movements.

However, researchers said those secure in their national identity and borders have proved either unimpressed or indifferent.

Opposed to this, residents of the Netherlands have been dissuaded from visiting Scotland due to the independence debate.

Fifty-two per cent of Dutch respondents considering that the independence debate had made Scotland less appealing as a holiday destination than before.

According to a 2013 report from Deloitte, tourism is a key contributor to Scotland’s economy – it was worth £11.6 billion in 2013, and supports over 292,000 jobs.

The report also states that the sector could be worth £23.1 billion to the Scottish economy by 2025.

Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? - Scotland votes 'No' to independence ♦ video
« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2014, 01:37:04 PM »
Scottish referendum: Scotland votes 'No' to independence

Scotland has voted to stay in the United Kingdom after voters decisively rejected independence.

With 31 out of the country's 32 council areas having declared after Thursday's vote, the 'No' side has an unassailable lead of 1,914,187 votes to 1,539,920.

Scotland votes 'no' to independence in historic referendum
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? ♦ Scots have spoken, now Britons must act
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2014, 01:25:16 PM »
From now on, London's dealings with Great Britain's northern partner must stem from the heart In the end, the "bond" held, just barely.

Democracy can be beautiful and ironic at the same time. The Scots, who have voted in a historic referendum to reject independence from England, can testify to that. So who says freedom is everything and democracy is everything about freedom? Scotland has chosen to be, well, not so free, but the process of coming to that conclusion is quite remarkable and respectable.

Some say it’s just like a child in the family trying to leave home and becoming independent from the parents. The Scottish independence issue doesn't carry with it a scary international scenario and has been monitored with more curiosity than genuine concern. It’s not an earth-shattering event that would send superpowers’ war rooms buzzing with anxiety. If the Ukraine and Middle East situations are thrillers, Thursday's decision by the Scots is a family drama at best.

While the Eastern Europe and Palestinian affairs feature ideological, religious and political conflicts, the Scottish issue is mostly economic. There is national pride involved, but, by and large, if England and Scotland have not had deep disagreements over financial aspects of their relationship, it might not have come to the vote on Thursday. Nationalism came seriously into play only in the home stretch of the referendum.

The Scotland case should serve as a lesson to all the powers that be. Ideological differences can redefine borders, but so can economic inequality. The "Better Together" campaign, for all its feel-good, comforting elements, failed to give pro-independence voters a guarantee that the status quo will help them economically. The pro-independence voters weren’t sure about a non-England economic future of Scotland either, but they were willing to make a leap of faith. If you think you have been exploited, you are likely to sever the ties and give it a try on your own, and it doesn’t matter if things might actually get worse.

Both camps’ campaigns were basically attempts to describe each side of the coin in their own ways. The "England Loves Scotland" camp presented the status quo as a brotherly, caring (albeit misunderstood) relationship. The other side called what England had done habitual "exploitation" committed under the guise of parental concern. Warnings that Scotland could be worse off economically were dubbed a scare tactic by the pro-independence campaign.

A lot of things will change now, but the relationship is unlikely to turn volatile or violent. Both countries have come a long way from the days when armoured soldiers beat down doors and dragged off "rebels" for public execution. Yet the divisive power of the economic issue can never be underestimated. When two people agree on just about everything else, what they have in the bank can dictate their relationship.

England and Scotland can call the latest independence push a close call. But it won't be the last. The pro-independence camp has come close to winning and must have learned some lessons. It will be better prepared next time, no matter how long it has to wait. As for England, the one and only lesson is that your friend, or your neighbour, or your family member must be treated well. Allegiance, of all things, can never be taken for granted.

The urge to be free is always there, even there’s nothing quite wrong in a relationship. England has promised better treatment of the Scots, but the trick is that future action must come from the heart and not the head. In other words, equality must stem from mutual respect, not necessity. Only then can "Better Together" be a genuine foundation of relationship, not some words used in a desperate campaign.

The nation
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Online Taman Tun

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2014, 04:41:03 PM »
So we lost. Maybe California will be more successful?
“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” - H L Mencken

Offline thaiga

Re: Yes or No? ♦ Banks fail to give guarantees on retaining offices
« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2014, 01:37:31 PM »
Scottish referendum results: Banks fail to give guarantees on retaining offices

Banks and financial giants refused to give concrete guarantees to retain their headquarters in Scotland despite the No vote – amid ongoing uncertainty around the deals that will be struck between Westminster and Holyrood over more powers for the Scottish Parliament.

Of the major Scotland-based banks, all of whom said they would be moving their registration office south of the border in the event of a Yes vote, only RBS pledged categorically that it would not now be doing so.

The refusal of other financial institutions to unequivocally commit to Scotland illustrated that the No vote – far from restoring stability and continuing the status quo for investors and big business – had generated substantial uncertainty.

Bank sources said there was no way they could give any guarantees when they do not know how much tax-raising power and regulatory influence devo max could give the Scottish parliament. “What if a future Scottish parliament under a new leadership decides it wants to raise corporation tax? We just can’t commit until we know whether or not they will be given such powers,” one executive told The Independent.

Another bank source expressed surprise that RBS had made its pledge, saying: “I think they’ve really jumped the gun. We do not know what is coming down the line here with devo max, the resignation of Alex Salmond, it’s all still very uncertain. We are going to adopt a wait-and-see approach.”

One insurance industry insider said his firm would have to wait and see what impact the devolution deal would have on customers’ personal taxes before making a clear pledge not to move business south.

Lloyds, RBS and Clydesdale Bank all made statements that did not go as far as pledging not to move their bases, although Clydesdale is believed to take the view that such a move was now highly unlikely.

Meanwhile, markets staged a small rally yesterday following the No vote. After a strong start, the FTSE 100 index ended the day up 18.63 points, at 6837.92, with shares in RBS ending the session up nearly 3% at 368p.

The pound, which surged overnight as it became clear a No vote was likely, lost much of its gains by the evening as investors turned their attention back to the global economic uncertainty. It had peaked above $1.65 at one stage in the night, but fell back to $1.63.

One analyst said: “We can now turn our attention back to the old fundamentals, which are that inflation here is low, so interests are likely to stay down for a long time. That’s taking the pound down to more realistic levels.”

Brenda Kelly, chief market strategist at IG Index, said: “Scotland’s referendum has upended the UK’s constitutional order, but it is clear that equity markets are not particularly bothered about the political implications of further devolution for Scotland and the other UK nations. Although the FTSE has not been able to sustain gains in the direction of 6900, it is still enjoying something of a bounce, as investors in companies with heavy Scottish exposure heave a sigh of relief that currency and contract wrangles are off the agenda.”

However, the uncertainty among banks around devo max was also being felt in other businesses.

David Glen, head of tax in Scotland at accountants PwC, said: “Don’t underestimate how much Scottish taxes are going to change, regardless of today’s no vote. New rates of income tax and a completely different tax on land and property will have most impact.

“Businesses will need to have resources in place to ensure their payroll systems are equipped to deal with both Scottish and other UK taxpayers by April 2016. And administration for the self-employed will be equally onerous.”

Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Yes or No?
« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2014, 10:26:04 AM »
David Cameron says Queen ‘purred down line’ after Scotland no vote

Sky News catches prime minister on camera appearing to breach convention of never revealing conversations with monarch

David Cameron has been caught on camera talking about how the Queen “purred down the line” after he phoned her to say Scotland had voted no to independence.

The prime minister’s remarks suggesting the Queen was pleased with the result are a rare, albeit accidental, breach of the convention that the prime minister never speaks about his conversations with the monarch. It also jeopardises her traditional neutrality, which she maintained throughout the referendum campaign except when she was overheard telling a member of the public that she hoped people in Scotland would think carefully about the future.

Cameron’s exchange with Michael Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, was accidentally picked up by Sky News as they walked through an office in the businessman’s media empire.

“The definition of relief is being the prime minister of the United Kingdom and ringing the Queen and saying: ‘It’s alright, it’s OK’. That was something. She purred down the line.”

Part of the conversation is inaudible, but he was then recorded saying: “But it should never have been that close. It wasn’t in the end, but there was a time in the middle of the campaign when it felt …”

Cameron also joked about taking legal action against pollsters who suggested the two campaigns were neck and neck, when the final result saw 55% vote no to independence and 45% yes.

“I’ve said I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through. It was very nervous moments,” he said.

It is the first time Cameron has been heard talking of how worried he was that the Better Together campaign might lose. Although it could have given the Conservatives an electoral advantage, backbenchers would have probably forced the prime minister to resign in the event of a yes vote.

In the final two weeks of the campaign, the Westminster leaders offered a faster package of devolution to Scotland and Cameron made an emotional plea for the union to stay together.

Downing Street declined to comment on the embarrassing gaffe, which is unlikely to have gone down well with Buckingham Palace.

The Guardian

What a! :o

What would happen in a case like that in Thailand?
Fun is the one thing that money can't buy