Author Topic: Pound strengtening/weakening  (Read 3821 times)

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Offline thaiga

Pound strengtening/weakening
« on: July 12, 2016, 07:10:28 PM »
Sterling bounces back on PM appointment

Sterling rose along with UK government bond yields on Tuesday as the early anointing of interior minister Theresa May as prime minister fed into a generally improved global mood among financial investors.

The 1.5% rise to $1.3186 put the pound on track for its biggest daily gain since Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union drove it to 31-year lows.

It also strengthened 1% to 84.22 pence per euro , a one-week high, extending gains made on Monday after the withdrawal of leading Brexit campaigner Andrea Leadsom cleared the way for May's formal appointment this week.

"Clarity on the UK's leadership was another factor boosting investors' appetite," said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist with retail brokerage FXTM.

"However, the big question remains as to when Article 50 is going to be triggered, and how investors are going to react to the UK's official departure from the EU. Meaning that investors shouldn't get overexcited."

This week's main economic event is a Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday which many analysts and investors expect will yield a cut in interest rates to shield the economy from the immediate shock of the Brexit vote.

While 10-year British government bond yields rose four basis points to 0.80%, two-year yields rose by just over one basis point, held down by the expectations of lower official rates.

The pound extended its gains as BoE governor Mark Carney, two days before the rate decision, told a parliamentary committee that he wanted to make it as clear as possible to households and firms that credit was available.

"We expect the BoE to deliver at least a 0.25-percentage-point reduction in their key policy rate at this week's meeting and to signal that more ...

full article Bangkokpost
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: pound hits three year low against the euro
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 08:43:05 PM »
Pound falls to three-year low against euro over Brexit timing

The pound reached 87.46 pence against the euro -- its weakest level since August 2013 -- at around 0740 GMT before stabilising at 87.20 pence, after a new index showed manufacturing had benefited from a lower pound.


Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - lowest level since 1985
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2016, 06:34:24 PM »
Pound drops to lowest level since 1985

The pound has dropped to a 31-year low as investors fret over the British government’s suggestion it will focus on controlling immigration in its talks to leave the European Union, ahead of retaining access to the bloc’s single market.

Investors have been selling the currency since a speech on Sunday by Prime Minister Theresa May, who said her government plans to start the process of leaving the EU by the end of March 2017.

The pound fell another 0.5 percent on Tuesday to $1.2760, its lowest point since 1985.

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Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - FTSE 100 soars as pound slides
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 02:08:28 PM »
FTSE 100 soars as pound slides

The FTSE 100 share index came close to an all-time high after rising above 7,000 points as the pound plunged to a new 31-year low against the dollar.

London's leading share index closed up 1.3% at 7,074.34 - just short of its record high of 7,103.98.
However, the pound fell to $1.2737 at one point - its lowest level against the US dollar since 1985.

Sterling has fallen for the past two days as traders study the Conservative Party conference for Brexit details.
Against the euro, the pound was down 0.7% at €1.13840.

The FTSE 250 share index, which features more UK-focused companies, closed at a record high, surging 0.9% to 18,342.07.
Stock markets in Frankfurt and Paris also closed higher on Tuesday.

Sterling 'wounds'

On Sunday, Prime Minister Theresa May said she would trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017.

Analysts say the pound has been hit by the prospect of the UK leaving the EU single market as part of the Brexit process.

Esther Reichelt, currency strategist at Commerzbank, said the government's apparent insistence on limiting freedom of movement was causing particular uncertainty among investors.

"This increases fears of a 'hard' Brexit because so far nobody sees a possibility of achieving this without May having to accept notable restrictions when it comes to accessing the single market," she said.

Connor Campbell, analyst at traders Spreadex, said: "It seems that it is going to be hard to provide a tourniquet for sterling's recent wounds given the solidity of the newly announced Brexit timeline."

Kathleen Brooks, research director at and City Index, said the Tory party conference was turning into a sell for the pound given Mrs May's "apparent sanguine attitude to leaving the single market, preferring to focus on immigration and UK sovereignty rather than the economic fallout of Brexit".

She said comments by the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, in which he warned that the UK economy was heading for a "rollercoaster" ride over the coming years, had not helped.

more here from the
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - Pound sees further volatile trading
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2016, 03:03:24 PM »
Pound sees further volatile trading

The pound is higher in early Asian trading, regaining some of the ground lost from a sharp drop late on Tuesday.

The currency was trading at $1.2259, up 0.8% from its fall the previous day.

On Tuesday, it had fallen more than 2%, dropping below $1.21, while against the euro it fell below €1.10.

The pound has now fallen about 18% against the dollar since the referendum, to levels not seen since 1985.

"Unfortunately this volatility in the pound is unlikely to end until there is greater clarity around Brexit," said market analyst Angus Nicholson of IG in Melbourne.

He added that the rise in Asian trading may be driven by Prime Minister Theresa May making a late amendment to the terms of a debate on Wednesday, seen by traders as effectively giving Parliament a vote on the terms of Brexit.

Neil Wilson from ETX Capital said the mood around the pound had been extremely negative in recent days and that it was "now trading like an emerging market currency."

He also said comments by a senior Bank of England official had not helped.

Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank's interest rate-setting committee, said earlier that the pound could still "fall further", but that the recent sharp drop was not an immediate cause for concern.

Bank threat

The comments were interpreted as a signal that the Bank could keep interest rates lower for longer.

Some traders also said sterling came under pressure from reports that US banks Citi and Morgan Stanley could move staff out of London, adding to worries about foreign investment leaving the UK.

"It really isn't terribly complicated. If we are outside the EU and we don't have what would be a stable and long-term commitment to access the single market then a lot of the things we do today in London, we'd have to do inside the EU 27," said Rob Rooney, chief executive of Morgan Stanley International.

Traders also pointed to leaked documents, warning that a withdrawal from the EU single market could cost the Treasury more than £66bn a year, as a reason for the drop.

Why does the fall of the pound matter?

On the upside, it matters for exporters which are boosted as their goods are far cheaper on foreign markets.

It matters for multinational companies like pharmaceutical firms which earn much of their income in dollars. It matters for the tourism industry in the UK, as foreign visitors flock here for bargains and good value holidays.

On the downside, it matters for tourists travelling abroad who will find everything they buy much more expensive.

It matters for the food and fuel this country imports as it becomes more expensive. It matters for inflation, as the rise in import costs feeds through to businesses and the High Street.

And remember, it does not need much of a rise in inflation to wipe out real income growth which at present is running at around 2%. If real incomes start falling, that is when the fall in sterling becomes a truly political issue.

Because the pound in your pocket will actually be worth less.

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Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - Could sterling fall lower still?
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 12:18:52 PM »
The pound is still trying it's best and struggling to keep the right side of 42. Here's an article from with a few suggestions as to how it got in all this mess from the start

Yes we know, no one knew what Brexit really meant for the UK economy, so they assumed that it was bad. Let's get out everyone jeered. Why has it dropped so much all of a sudden, they suggest it was because of Theresa May, in her speech at the Conservative party conference, dispelled any idea that the UK was going to backtrack on Brexit and revealed a deadline for setting the divorce process in motion.

Ten key questions as the pound plunges

Who are the winners and losers?

Foreign tourists are big winners. They flooded the UK in the summer after the big post-Brexit sterling drop, and if they can brave Britain’s weather, they will do so again the next time they have a break.

So UK tourist attractions, and other parts of the leisure industry such as restaurants and hotels, also benefit.

Other winners are anyone in a hurry to sell a UK asset, such as a house or a company. Foreign buyers may never get a better opportunity. Exporters now have more competitive goods to sell. And hedge funds always like a bear market.

The losers? Brits going abroad. Summer holidays in Europe and elsewhere were painfully expensive and will be more so now, making the idea of staycation holidays more tempting.

Car drivers face higher forecourt prices because the UK is a net oil importer and the price of a barrel of oil is going up. And banks find their sterling assets are now depreciating.

Lots of people think all of us are losers because the UK economy is now in trouble.

Could sterling fall lower still?

Most certainly. Let’s face it: the government doesn’t know how Brexit will turn out, the Bank of England doesn’t know, the market doesn’t know, companies, shareholders, the man in the street don’t know. Many things determine a currency’s rise and fall, but in the pound’s case Brexit is way ahead of other causes.

In crude terms, Brexit could be good or bad for the UK. Right now, Brexit is in the tray marked “Uncertain”. And since the market hates uncertainty, the chances are that traders’ instincts will lean towards selling the pound. Currencies are probably the best proxy for the market’s opinion of a country’s economy, and when the pound fell sharply in the days after Brexit, the market had effectively downgraded the UK. That much was expected by most economists.

What matters to governments and central banks is the size and pace of currency moves. And after a summer lull, when the economy seemed to be doing better than expected, forcing economists to update their sterling forecasts, the pound is again being heavily sold relatively quickly. A pound was worth nearly $1.30 at the start of October. Barely a week later, it is worth closer to $1.24. That’s quite a decline.

Currencies move in strange ways. There is never a smooth path up or down (or sideways). Here’s Richard Bibbey of HSBC: “We’ll likely see a short period of consolidation before a further period lower. However, if ...

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Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - Pound fall a 'shock absorber'
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2016, 06:12:19 PM »
I wonder, some say you can talk the pound down, i wish they could talk it back up. This guy thinks it's like a shock absorber, shame it's not a spring it would bounce back. If this is the good news then there ain't none, The fall in the value of sterling has acted as an important "shock absorber" having a flexible currency was "extremely important" to cope with shocks.
Well SHOCKED we all was @ 42 just to the pound.

Pound fall a 'shock absorber', says BoE's Ben Broadbent

Mr Broadbent, one of three deputy governors at the Bank, said: "Having a flexible currency is an extremely important thing especially in an environment when your economy faces a shock that is different to your trading partners".
Allowing the pound to react "is a very important shock absorber".

Bank governor Mark Carney said on Friday that sterling's weakness would lead to higher prices

Tesco's dispute with Unilever last week over the rising price of Marmite illustrates how a weak pound could push up inflation, he said.

Mr Broadbent, a Marmite fan who said he "loves" the stuff, said the rising cost of foreign holidays would also contribute to inflation.

full article
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - Pound spikes above $1.24
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 06:32:37 PM »
They say, it's not over till the fat lady sings, Pound spikes above $1.24 and FTSE 100 slumps to one-month low after Brexit ruling goes against government. Buying Rates @ bangkokbank rose a little today to 42.27    

Sterling gains after Brexit ruling goes against government

Sterling jumped briefly past $1.24 for the first time in more than three weeks on Thursday after a UK court ruled the government must seek parliamentary approval to begin the formal process of leaving the European Union.

The pound rose by just under a full cent to $1.2450 before retreating on signs that, as many in markets had expected, the government could appeal the ruling at a hearing in early December.

"Sterling has rallied again on the government loss in the High Court over Article 50, but the upside will likely be limited given appeal," said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund FX sales at Mizuho in London.

British gilt futures slipped to a session low before recovering and were last down 15 ticks on the day at 125.75 - only a little below their level before the ruling.

The yield on Germany's 10-year government bond, the euro zone's benchmark, rose to a day's high of 0.17 percent, up 4 basis points on the day.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index extended gains and was last up 0.4 percent, boosted by the banking sector, which also gained further to trade 1.5 percent higher.

By 1024 GMT, sterling was up 0.8 percent on the day at $1.2410. It rose 0.9 percent to 89.40 pence per euro.

(Reporting by Jemima Kelly, Patrick Graham, Abhinav Ramnarayan, Andy Bruce and Atul Prakash)
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 09:07:48 AM »
Normally, when courts tell government how to do its job, that nation's currency decreases in value. In Britain it seems  to go vice versa now. Yesterday the pound soared to 43.08 by the currency calculator at the bottom of this forum. Time for new elections to sort out the mess created by the current British politicians?
No matter how tall the mountain is, it cannot block the sun. - Chinese Proverb

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 11:56:39 AM »
Yesterday the pound soared to 43.08 by the currency calculator at the bottom of this forum. Time for new elections to sort out the mess created by the current British politicians?
and rising today 43.76 according to our currency calculator, as for the British politicians they seem to make a mess and then do a paul daniels.

The strong rise in the British Pound comes courtesy of three factors on Thursday 3rd November:

1) Services PMI easily beating expectations
2) Article 50 ruling in favour of those wanting Parliament to have a say on triggering of Article 50
3) The Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged at November meeting while hiking growth rates.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2016, 09:34:12 PM »
And it went down to 43.59 again, while the Euro jumped quite a bit, "thanks" to the US election result. On which side will Theresa May play now: Europe or US, or will she still dream of Greater" Britain?
No matter how tall the mountain is, it cannot block the sun. - Chinese Proverb

Offline thaiga

After a grim year, the British pound has quietly rallied back in the last month. Sterling’s trade weighted index, compiled by the Bank of England, has risen by more than 5% in the last 30 days. If it holds its rise for another week, November will be the most positive month for sterling since January 2009. Don't get too exited some forecasters are betting on a resumption of the pound’s downward trend.

British Pound on Course for Strongest Month in Over Seven Years

The pound is roughly flat against the greenback since President-elect Donald Trump’s victory on Nov. 8, in contrast to practically every other major world currency.

The euro is down by more than 4% over the same period, the yen is down by 7.5%. Some emerging market currencies have been even harder hit: the Mexican peso has dropped by more than 10% since the election.

The comparatively strong performance of the pound is something of a mystery. Little has changed with regards to the U.K’s approach to Brexit since Nov. 3, when the High Court of England and Wales ruled that the government required a parliamentary vote to begin the process of leaving the EU.

But since then, sterling’s strength has continued.

One explanation is that the higher inflation driven by the pound’s sharp drop could force the Bank of England to hold back from cutting interest rates again. Sterling’s weakness could also offer some stimulus to export sectors.

full article
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Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - British Pound’s Santa Rally Forecast
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2016, 10:43:48 PM »
British Pound’s Santa Rally Forecast to Extend Beyond Christmas

Pound Sterling is forecast to retain a positive bias over the near-term writes City Index's Kathleen Brooks.

So much for the Pound’s rally having run its course in November, GBPUSD has taken another leap higher on Friday, December 1.

Technical traders may be getting excited by GBPUSD, which popped above the top of its daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.2643, it has cleared this hurdle this afternoon and GBPUSD is currently trading just below 1.27.

So, is this move justified?

This is a difficult question to answer.

The UK-US 10-year yield spread is falling deeper into negative territory, as US yields rise at a faster pace than UK yields. Thus, GBPUSD does not have a yield advantage that is driving this pair higher.

Instead, we think that the rally in the Pound is down to the market reducing its stretched short position in GBPUSD, which could give this rally legs, potentially back to the 1.30 level.

CFTC data, which measures speculative interest in the pound vs. the USD, has shown that short positions in GBPUSD have reduced for 6 out of the last 7 weeks, and it appears that this trend could continue.

Due to this, we may see further upside for the Pound in the coming weeks, due to the following factors:

Momentum: the reduction in GBP shorts is important to the future of the GBP rally. If we continue to see short positions getting scaled back, then the GBP may continue to rise on a broad basis. Momentum is particularly strong against the yen and its recent performance has been staggering, GBPJPY is up more than 14% since the start of November!
Political risks around Brexit are receding, as political risks elsewhere start to bite. The cost to insure UK sovereign debt has fallen sharply since spiking back in June.
Upside risks to growth after a positive Black Friday shopping season, and the potential for an increase in inflation in the coming months.
The technical indicators are also positive, we have already mentioned GBPUSD’s pop above the Ichimoku cloud earlier today, the next key resistance level for this pair is 1.2811 – the 100-day sma – and then 1.3055 – the 38.2% retracement of the June – October decline in GBPUSD, which is a major level of resistance

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Offline thaiga

FX outlook 2017: What does next year have in store for the pound and will we see euro/dollar parity?

The pound slumped and dollar spiked over 2016, so what can we expect from forex markets over the next 12 months?

The pound plunged, the euro struggled and the dollar rallied. The one coming to an end was as eventful a year as traders could have wished for in the currency markets and, as 2017 approaches, there are more questions than answers on the horizon.

Sterling kicked off 2016 by closing the first session of the year at $1.4716, slightly down from the closing high of $1.5018 it recorded just a week before Christmas 2015. Thereafter, the UK currency enjoyed a relatively calm first half of the year, interrupted only by a brief foray below the $1.40 barrier in February.

As Britain's historic European Union referendum approached, sterling defied forecasts of impending economic gloom, climbing steadily, before suffering a dip below $1.42 at the beginning of June.

With Britons heading to the polls on 23 June, the UK currency reached the highest level in the year, climbing 0.9% against the US dollar, to rise to a year-high of $1.4877, just 24 hours after it hit its highest level against the greenback since 4 January.

That, however, was as good as it got for the pound, which suffered the third-biggest one-day decline of any currency in the world over the past 40 years the day following the EU vote.

The UK currency tumbled to its lowest level since 1975 after the Leave campaign secured a 52% to 48% win in the EU referendum, tumbling to $1.3228.

The slump was second only to the that caused by the Swiss central bank's unexpected decision to lift Switzerland's currency peg in January 2015 and by the turmoil that hit the Japanese yen during the 1973 oil crisis.

The pound closed the first post-referendum session at $1.3679, but the vote triggered a downturn that would see sterling slump approximately 19% in the three months following the referendum, with the UK currency hitting a 31-year low of $1.2123 on 11 October.

Two months earlier, the pound had fallen sharply after the Bank of England cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25% and unveiled a series of economic measures aimed at reviving the UK economy.

Sterling has since recouped some of the losses and looks poised to end 2016 between the $1.24 and $1.25 range, after hitting $1.2775 on 6 December, its highest level since 4 October. However, at the time of writing, it remains 12% and 15% lower than it was at the start of the year against the euro and the dollar respectively.

Sterling has also claimed the unwanted accolade of being the year's second-worst performer among major currencies, beaten only by the Mexican peso. The uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process has soured sentiment this year and could drag the currency even lower in 2017.

"The ongoing battle of words between financial heavyweights on the Brexit topic has added to the anxiety, while hard Brexit concerns continue to encourage sellers to incessantly offload the pound," said FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga.

"With the lack of direction in the UK government's Brexit stance compounding to the uncertainty, sterling could be poised for steeper declines moving forward."

However, BlackRock's deputy chief investment officer of global fundamental fixed income, Scott Thiel was more optimistic.

"So long as we don't go down the road of a hard Brexit, the pound will continue to react relatively favorably," he said.

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Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound strengtening/weakening - Pound hits high
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2017, 08:45:13 PM »
Sterling £ breaks 45฿.

pic@ thomas major

Pound hits highest since Brexit vote on rate rise speech

The pound has hit its highest level against the dollar since the Brexit vote after a senior Bank of England official fuelled speculation it could raise rates in the coming months.

Gertjan Vlieghe, who has previously argued against a rate rise, said the "moment is approaching" when interest rates might need to go up.

The Bank kept rates at 0.25% this week, but hinted at a rise in the future.

Sterling rose more than 1% against the dollar to hit $1.3610.

That was its highest level since 24 June, the day after the Brexit vote.

full article
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.