Author Topic: Baht strengtening/weakening  (Read 29724 times)

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$
« Reply #150 on: July 26, 2015, 01:43:16 PM »
Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$

ECONOMISTS believe the country's status as net creditor and the current account surplus will strengthen the baht after it had hit a six-year low to the US dollar on Thursday, however the global price of gold is expected to continue to drop due to the strengthening of the US dollar.

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the baht that is currently weakening because of overseas factors and the drop in the gold price, to strengthen after the short-term psychological effect dies down due to its strong backup.

"It is like trying to kick a football up the hill; it will eventually roll down since you are kicking it up the slope without anything to provide upward momentum," she said.

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) expects the baht to be at 34.5 by the end of the third quarter.

The baht has slid from Bt32.835 to the greenback on April 29 (the day of the second consecutive cut of the policy interest rate this year) to trade at Bt34.936 as of 4pm yesterday. The global gold price has also continued to drop to $1,084 per ounce at the same time yesterday compared with $1,160 per ounce on July 12 (the day that the value of the precious metal started to decline amid the strengthening of the US dollar).

She explained that the reason why the baht had outperformed other currencies before the consecutive cuts in the policy interest rate in March and April was because Thailand was a net creditor: The country's current lending in US dollars is around $190 billion while its foreign debts stand at around $140 billion, which means the Kingdom is a net lender of around US$50 billion.

Somchai Amornthum, executive vice president at Krung Thai Asset Management (KTAM) said the baht was unlikely to slide that much further than Bt35 to the US dollar, as the country's current account surplus is expected to continue to expand. Imports normally increased in July and August every year but oil price has dropped 50 per cent. "Although exports have continued to contract since the beginning of the year, in the overall scenario the surplus in the current account will be even bigger," he said.

"The global oil price is also expected to be in the region of $50 per barrel for quite some time due to the increase in supply and that is another support for surplus in the current account, as Thailand is a net importer of oil," he added.

Thailand currently carries a current account surplus of $2.127 billion as of May 2015.

Kamolthun Pornphaisarnvichit, director of the Gold Research Centre, said the global gold price is expected to drop by about $30 to around $1,050 per ounce during the period of expectation of an expected Fed rate hike around September this year. If the US interest rate is hiked in September, then gold is expected to trade around $1,050-$1,150 per ounce in September and October.

"The gold price in Thailand has dropped less than the global gold price because of the weakening baht. The price in Thailand has dropped by 3.2 per cent to around Bt18,000 per gold bar since the beginning of the month until now while the global gold price has dropped by 4.5 per cent in the same period of time," he said.

The nation
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht has biggest monthly drop since 2001
« Reply #151 on: August 01, 2015, 12:17:02 PM »
Baht has biggest monthly drop since 2001

The baht dropped this month by the most in more than 14 years after the government cut forecasts for growth and exports, spurring outflows from Thai equities as the US prepares to raise interest rates.

The currency fell 4.2% to 35.245 baht a dollar as of 4.15pm, the sharpest monthly loss since March 2001, Bloomberg-compiled data show. It declined 0.5% on Friday and earlier reached 35.280, the lowest level since May 2009.

The economy is slowing as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha fails to spur a revival and as planned investment in infrastructure falls short of target. While overseas investors sold a net US$856 million of stocks this month as of Wednesday, the most since May 2014, an index of sovereign bonds rose, suggesting demand for the relative safety of debt.

“The baht has fallen in line with a strong dollar,” said Tsutomu Soma, department manager of the fixed-income business unit at Rakuten Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “Thai political uncertainties are also weighing on investor confidence.”

The government is under increasing pressure to overhaul the cabinet and bolster the economy as waning consumer confidence and a slump in manufacturing portend one of the region’s slowest expansions, according to analysts.

The economy may grow 3 in 2015, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday, down from an April estimate of 3.7%. Exports have contracted for six straight months and a central bank report Friday showed they fell 8.9% last month from a year earlier.

Overseas shipments may drop in 2015 by more than the Bank of Thailand’s 1.5% forecast, senior director Roong Mallikamas said on Friday.

A Bloomberg index of Thai sovereign bonds gained 0.9% in July, halting a two-month drop. The three-year yield declined 17 basis points from June 30 to 1.6% and the 10-year yield fell 13 basis points to 2.83%.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Thai baht could drop further this week
« Reply #152 on: August 03, 2015, 02:31:04 PM »
Thai baht could drop further this week

-Thai stocks are likely to fluctuate this week due to domestic and external factors. Meanwhile the Thai baht is expected to weaken further after it plunged to its lowest level in six years last week.

Kasikorn Bank has forecast resistance and support levels for the Thai stock market this week at approximately 1,460 and 1,420 points.

However, the fluctuations are subject to several factors which include monetary policy, the US economic figures, the purchasing managers index (PMI) and the Eurozone financial disruption in Greece.

The Thai baht will likely fluctuate at a maximum of 35 baht against the US dollar. The Thai currency is also susceptible to commodity demands, employment rates and trade figures.

NNT
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Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #153 on: August 12, 2015, 09:09:49 PM »
Looks like it took a considerable dive today, after the Chinese devalued the Yuan for 4.46 5 since yesterday. Hopefully the Thai government follows that move to some degree and devalues the baht as well.
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Offline Roger

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Re: Baht weakest in 2 months
« Reply #154 on: August 13, 2015, 06:55:40 AM »
Johnnie sorry but correct me if I am wrong.
The Baht is currently as WEAK as it has been recently.
UK Forex shows Baht 55 to £1 yesterday.
When the Baht is weak you get or give more Baht for each £/$ etc.
When the Baht is strong you get or give less for each £/$ ....
6 years ago when I moved to Thailand at Baht 46 to £1 the Baht - the Baht was stronger then ?
Confusing ain't it ?
ATB
 

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #155 on: August 13, 2015, 08:28:43 AM »
You're right, Roger, the baht is weak and should be even weaker, because it is still too strong, i. e. it is overvalued. Until 6 years ago it was a lot weaker. If it doesn't get corrected soon, i. e. devalued, Thai exports will feel it like the Chinese had to realize that a Yuan too strong isn't good for their economy. We foreign pensioners do feel it the other way round: If the baht is too strong we'll get less baht for our pennies. But expensive exports do find less buyers, and that hurts big money. So politicians got to make the move and devalue.
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Offline Roger

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Re: Baht weakest in 2 months
« Reply #156 on: August 13, 2015, 09:15:35 AM »
Yes Johnnie the Baht is weak and IMHO, likely to weaken still further in coming months.
Chinese moves devaluing the Yuan may motivate Thailand to follow suit.
Continuing unresolved problems inside the Eurozone are relevant. 
Interest rates may increase sooner rather than later in the USA and the UK too.
My income arises in the UK so it's good for me.
Baht 65 to the £1 would be nice !
ATB
 

Offline Not A Buffalo

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #157 on: August 13, 2015, 09:52:47 AM »
Hope this website may be of interest to everyone else.

It's where I go 1st to know what really is going on - not the PC governments views!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-12/china-devalues-yuan-3rd-day-4-year-lows-argentina-suffers-losses-japan-escalates-cur

I personally am of the belief we are only just starting the ride...... down, down and even further down :(
 

Offline Roger

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Re: Baht weakening ?
« Reply #158 on: August 13, 2015, 10:49:18 AM »
Thanks Buffy and Johnnie can we change the misleading heading on this thread ? ATB
 

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #159 on: August 13, 2015, 12:13:37 PM »
Thanks Buffy and Johnnie can we change the misleading heading on this thread ? ATB

as simple as that!  :salute
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #160 on: August 13, 2015, 12:32:43 PM »
Baht fluctuations, we've suffered some time now lets hope we've seen the worst

China's currency devaluation: Thailand's economic nightmare?

Yesterday, the People's Bank of China cut the value of its currency for the second day in a row. Analysts now estimate that the yuan has depreciated more than 3 per cent against the US dollar, having already dropped 1.8 per cent when China "threw a curveball" the day before. Most media called it a surprise move, but observant economists had seen it coming for quite some time.

full article: The nation

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #161 on: August 18, 2015, 12:08:15 PM »
Baht at six-year low, tourism shares fall after bombing

Thailand's baht currency slumped to a more than six-year low on Tuesday and shares fell in Bangkok over concerns an unprecedented attack in the capital could hit the vital tourism sector.

full article: Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #162 on: September 08, 2015, 02:04:50 PM »
Baht hits new low on charter woes, US data

US ECONOMIC data released last week and developments on the domestic political front sent the baht to a six-and-a-half year low at more than 36 per US dollar yesterday.

"The market now believes that the United States' central bank might have a greater probability of increasing its interest rate this month following the US' announcement that its unemployment rate has declined to 5.1 per cent while average income per hour has also increased more than expected," Chirathep Senivongs Na Ayudhya, spokesman for the Bank of Thailand, said yesterday.

full article: The nation
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht halts slide
« Reply #163 on: September 18, 2015, 03:47:30 PM »
Baht halts slide as rate decisions maintain yield allure

The baht halted a 10-week loss as investors returned to the nation’s assets following decisions by the Thai and US central banks to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the yield advantage of local bonds.

full article: Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: The baht had weakened to 36.55 against the US dollar by 5pm yesterday
« Reply #164 on: September 30, 2015, 03:33:27 PM »
Weak baht may be little help to exports

THE WEAKENING of the baht will not help Thailand's export sector much, as other countries have seen their currencies depreciate as well, private-sector representatives said.

The baht had weakened to 36.55 against the US dollar by 5pm yesterday, from 36.29 on Monday evening.

The nation
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht rises to 2-month high
« Reply #165 on: January 29, 2016, 05:08:26 PM »
Baht rises to 2-month high as stock rout draws funds to bonds

The baht rose to a two-month high on Friday and is poised to halt a run of monthly losses as global funds returned to the nation’s bonds.

Overseas investors pumped almost $1 billion into Thai debt in January following two straight months of outflows, as a rout across world stock markets boosted demand for the relative safety of fixed-income securities. In a bright spot for the currency, the current-account surplus is forecast to have widened in December to the second highest monthly reading of 2015, while the government is predicting record tourist arrivals this year.

full article: Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht reaches 7-month high
« Reply #166 on: March 17, 2016, 01:12:53 PM »
Baht reaches 7-month high, stays firm as market eyes Fed

The baht hit a seven-month high against the dollar on Wednesday, showing resilience despite potential risks from the US Federal Reserve's policy statement due later in the day.

Moves among Asian currencies were mixed, with the baht and Philippine peso edging higher, while the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah retreated against the dollar.

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy decision due later on Wednesday.

full article: Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht gains as Q1 growth beats estimates
« Reply #167 on: May 16, 2016, 09:01:36 PM »
Baht gains as Q1 growth beats estimates

The baht rose on Monday after Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy expanded more than analysts estimated, spurred by the government’s increased spending.

The currency climbed 0.3% to 35.366 per dollar as of 4.14pm, halting a five-day loss, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It was the baht’s biggest gain since April 29. The SET Index increased 0.2%.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha has issued a series of stimulus measures worth more than 400 billion baht since last year to help shore up local demand. The Bank of Thailand last week left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for an eighth straight meeting to help support growth.

Gross domestic product increased 3.2% in the three months through March from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Board reported Monday. That compares with the 2.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

“The much stronger-than-expected data provides support for the baht,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a Bangkok-based currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “With this data, speculation of a further rate cut is probably fading a bit, however downside risks to growth remain.”

The baht may trade between 35.25 and 35.55 per dollar this week, said Hasegawa. The 10-year bond yield rose two basis points to 1.82% and the two year climbed one basis point to 1.38%.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: BOT to keep baht from fluctuating too much
« Reply #168 on: May 31, 2016, 12:27:15 PM »
BOT to keep baht from fluctuating too much

Bank of Thailand (BOT) Governor Wirathai Santipraphop said the baht has depreciated since the US dollar sharply rose under the United States Federal Reserve's policy.

Although the weakened baht remains in line with the fluctuations of regional currencies, the BOT will see to it that the baht will not fluctuate too much to avoid adverse impacts on the national economy, he said.

The BOT governor added that the number of banknotes has decreased because not so many have been newly printed and more people have turned to E-payment.

NNT
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht to Weaken to 37 to the US Dollar, According to KBank
« Reply #169 on: June 16, 2016, 12:40:48 PM »
Baht to Weaken to 37 to the US Dollar, According to KBank

Forecasts from KBank point to the baht weakening against the greenback by the end of the year. Looming interest rate hikes in the United States and the potential of the U.K leaving the European Union are to blame.

The bank’s capital market research department asserts that the baht will weaken in the second half of the year as global uncertainties push the currency downward.

Immediate forecasts have the baht retreating to 35.50 versus the USD in June, falling to 36 versus the greenback in July, and reaching 37 versus the dollar by the end of the year. Siam Commercial Bank also forecasts the baht falling to 37.

The baht has fallen slightly from Monday’s 35.21/35.23 to 35.28/35.30 on Tuesday.

KBank believes that the United States will increase interest rates twice this year, starting with a hike in July. Offshore funds have increased greatly in Asia, with foreign holdings of Thai bonds skyrocketing from 40 billion baht to over 140-billion-baht last week.

The Bank of Thailand may hold off on raising interest rates from the current 1.5% level due to a downward trend on the baht. The downward trend further reduces pressure on investors that were anticipating an interest rate hike.

The SET index target for the end of the year has been revised upward from 1,350 – 1,470 to 1,400 – 1,500 points by Kasikorn Securities. The increase follows Thailand outperforming expectations and realizing 3.2% Q1 growth year over year. Economic momentum is slated to continue as the government rolls out megaprojects and implements stimulus measures.

ethailand.com
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Further baht gains may hurt recovery
« Reply #170 on: August 22, 2016, 12:55:48 PM »
Further baht gains may hurt recovery, Bank of Thailand says

Thailand’s central bank is concerned further appreciation of the baht will hurt exporters and damage the nation’s economic recovery.

The currency advanced to the strongest level in 13 months last week as overseas investors boosted their holdings of the country’s stocks and bonds this year. Exports have contracted in 16 of the past 18 months, prompting Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to increase spending to counter the slump. The currency has also rallied as investor confidence was bolstered by the peaceful approval of a new constitution in an Aug. 7 referendum.

“To date, the appreciation of the baht might have dampened the cash flows of Thai exporters,” Bank of Thailand Assistant Governor of Financial Markets Chantavarn Sucharitakul, said in an e-mail interview. “Further strength in the baht might also derail the recovery of the Thai economy – a concern which the Bank of Thailand has to monitor closely.”

The baht was at 34.72 per dollar as of 10:35 a.m. in Bangkok, having gained 3.8 per cent this year. It appreciated to 34.50 on Aug. 19, the strongest since July 2015.

Funds based overseas boosted their holdings of the nation’s stocks and bonds by US$13.3 billion (RM53.7 billion) this year, according to exchange data. Emerging-market currencies, including the baht, have rallied on optimism that global central banks will keep monetary policy accommodative to support growth.

“Given that the inflows are externally driven, the reversal process is inevitable and the best that a recipient economy can do is to ensure that it is resilient and sufficiently well balanced to be able to absorb shocks, emanating from both sides be they inflows and outflows,” Chantavarn said.

Thailand’s economy grew more in the second quarter than analysts predicted, expanding 3.5 per cent from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Board said last week.

The authorities are resorting first to “verbal intervention” to restrain excessive appreciation of the baht, said Charlie Lay, a currency analyst at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. Another option is to relax foreign-exchange regulations further to encourage capital outflows, he said. The central bank in July allowed investors with assets greater than 100 million baht to invest in securities and derivatives overseas without going through a Thai intermediary.

“The bottom line is they’ll probably want to keep the Thai baht stable on a relative basis against its major trading partners,” Lay said. The currency will weaken to 35.4 per dollar by year-end, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. — Bloomberg

themalaymailonline.com
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Offline captcraig2

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #171 on: August 23, 2016, 11:55:22 AM »
Like to see 40 to a dollar!  :cheers
 

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #172 on: August 23, 2016, 01:19:06 PM »
The last thing i thought about when i come here was the exchange rates going down, then it was 70+ to the pound
 but the muffin is still good value, even at today's prices

                                                                            :cheers
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht depreciation expected
« Reply #173 on: November 27, 2016, 03:52:14 PM »
Baht depreciation expected

THE EXPECTED policy-rate increase by the US Federal Reserve next month would result in the baht deprecating for at least two quarters consecutively, and Thai companies that plan to raise finances from bonds would face rising funding costs, according to Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri).

The market predicts that the Fed will increase its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December, and Krungsri has the same view, said Tak Bunnag, head of the bank’s Global Markets Group.
The bank expects the Fed will rise the policy rate twice in 2017, ending up at 1 per cent from 0.25 per cent currently.
Tak forecast that a rate increase would result in the baht depreciating over the next two quarters before turning to appreciation in the second half of next year after the market sees clearer policies from US President-elect Donald Trump.
The baht against the dollar at the end of this year is expected to be 35.75.

The baht in the first quarter of 2017 is expected to be 36, and 35.75 in the second quarter. In the third quarter of 2017 it is expected to reach 35.50 and 35.25 in the fourth quarter, according to the Global Markets Group.
Tak said a Fed rate increase would also drive yield curves and increase the funding costs of bond issuers, while banks would face rising funding costs too.

Krungsri believes that the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its rate of 1.5 per cent throughout next year, although fund-flow movements in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia are factors to be further monitored because of their possible influence on the Kingdom’s interest rates.

Tak said bond issuers who planned tenors of five to seven years would face rising costs but at the same time their bonds would attractive to investors as the interest rates of deposit products in Thailand are expected to decrease further. This should be a win-win situation for both bond issuers and investors, he added.
He said banks that were arrangers of bond issues should balance the expected issuers and investors, while the Global Markets Group was active in consulting Japanese companies in Thailand about investing in the Thai bond market because of Japanese companies’ earlier preference for deposit products.
Even if the funding costs from issuing bonds were increased, large companies would still look at capital markets as an option for them apart from bank loans.

Thai companies have managed their risks well, while banks have been conservative in approving loans amid the economic uncertainty, although they still support lending to Thai corporates that are able to grow here and overseas.
Krungsri believes that the debt capital market and bank loans will still be funding sources for Thai corporates.
The Global Markets Group plans to grow in four segments – Japanese firms in Thailand, multinational companies, financial institutions, and Thai companies.

Krungsri is a member of Mitsubishi Financial UFJ. Tak said the bank was increasing its role in encouraging Thai investors including financial institutions to put more money into Japanese government bonds.
He said the bank would also leverage Japanese firms’ knowledge of risk management to help Thai companies better manage risk amid financial-market volatility.

The Nation
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Offline thaiga

Re: The baht has been among the biggest losers in Asia in the past month
« Reply #174 on: December 21, 2016, 04:25:25 PM »
Central bank holds key rate for 13th straight meeting

The Bank of Thailand held its key interest rate near a record low for a 13th straight meeting on Wednesday, opting for stability as the prospect of higher US borrowing costs weighs on Asian currencies and clouds the outlook for growth.

The one-day bond repurchase rate was kept at 1.5%, with monetary policy committee members voting unanimously in favour, the central bank announced.

All but one of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the decision.

Emerging nations are contending with capital outflows after the US Federal Reserve last week raised rates by a quarter-point and signaled three more increases may be warranted in 2017.

Thailand's export-reliant economy is growing at the slowest pace among its peers in Southeast Asia.

"The BoT will want to keep interest rates low to support the economy, which looks to have started the fourth quarter on a softer note,” Krystal Tan, an economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, said in a note. “With inflation set to remain benign, we expect the BoT to stay on the sidelines and keep its policy rate on hold” throughout 2017.

Biggest Loser

The SET index was little changed as of 2.10pm in Bangkok, while the baht was up 0.1% to 35.99 per dollar. The baht has been among the biggest losers in Asia in the past month, dropping 1.4% against the dollar.

Thailand’s economy struggled to gain traction this year as moderating consumer spending and a slump in trade curbed investment. Growth weakened to 3.2% from a year ago last quarter. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in November from a year earlier.

The central bank said it “assessed that the Thai economy would still be facing greater uncertainties going forward, particularly the fragile global economic recovery and uncertainties in the economic and monetary policy directions of major advanced economies that might induce greater capital flow and exchange rate volatility.”

Policy makers retained their 3.2% growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and predicted exports will stop falling next year. Inflation is projected to return to the 1 percent to 4% target by the first quarter.

“Unless domestic demand in Thailand falters and inflation eases, we do not foresee a rate cut,” Tim Leelahaphan, a Bangkok-based economist at Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand Pcl, said before the decision. “More likely, rates have upside risk to stem portfolio capital outflows caused by any Fed monetary tightening.”

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht will likely fluctuate this year
« Reply #175 on: January 20, 2017, 02:49:56 PM »
Baht will likely fluctuate this year

 Executives of commercial banks have forecast that the baht currency will likely fluctuate more than last year mainly due to the uncertainty about the policy of the new US President.

Executive of Kasikornbank Kiit Charornkitchaichana said the US politics was the key factor affecting the Thai currency during this period. This year, the baht will have a tendency to fluctuate either by depreciating and appreciating quickly. The bank therefore forecast the baht’s value this year will stay around 35-37 baht to the USD, said the executive.

Meanwhile, TMB Analytics of TMB Bank has predicted that this year’s baht currency will be on the depreciation side although it appreciated against the USD in the last two weeks. This baht appreciation was the result of USD currency speculation, said the bank.

TBM added that the Thai economy and other economies in the Asian region will rebound this year, leading to capital inflows. The baht will likely move between 35.50 – 36.80 baht to the USD.

NNT
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Thai baht set to weaken
« Reply #176 on: March 08, 2017, 06:32:23 PM »
Thai baht set to weaken   :thankyou

Thai baht is set to weaken following foreign capital outflows from the stock and bond markets.

The Thai baht today is traded at Bt35.13 per US dollar, gaining nearly 2 per cent since the beginning of this year.

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) expects a reversal of the trend this month due to tightening by the US Federal Reserve.

Net foreign outflows yesterday were tuned at Bt6 billion: Bt2.4 billion from stocks, Bt2.8 billion from short-term bonds and Bt0.8 billion from long-term bonds.

Foreigners were also net sellers of Thai stocks and bonds on Monday, with net-sell positions worth Bt3.2 billion. 

nationmultimedia.com
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Offline thaiga

Baht to strengthen, forecasts Bank of Ayudhya

The Bank of Ayudhya, also known as Krungsri, forecasts the baht will strengthen against the US dollar to a range of Bt34.55 to Bt34.85, from Bt34.86 last week.

On Monday, the baht reached a five-month high against the US dollar after the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week.

Foreign investors have been keen on the Thai bond market, with net purchases of Bt3.7 billion at the end of last week.

The Nation
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Offline thaiga

Strong baht tipped to hurt tourist stays

A strong baht is expected to hurt inbound tourism by driving up the cost of travel and narrowing industry margins, say public and private players in the tourism sector.

The Tourism and Sports Ministry revealed yesterday the baht in the year to date has appreciated by 14% against the pound sterling, 8% against Malaysia's ringgit, 5% against the euro and 2% against the US dollar.

Bucking the trend was the Russian ruble, up by 20% against the baht during the first five months of the year as arrivals from Russia grew by 31%.

The ministry expects the ruble to continue climbing during the second half of the year.

The baht's appreciation has been driven by internal factors.

The export sector, for example, jumped by 5.7% between January and April to a total value of US$73.34 billion.

External factors, however, like Brexit, a sluggish Malaysian economy and US policies under President Donald Trump, have also played a part.

"Appreciation increases the price of staying in Thailand, which may make some foreign tourists hesitant about booking trips," said Pongpanu Svettarundra, permanent secretary of the Tourism and Sports Ministry.

Compounding the strong baht is the ongoing air traffic blockade on Qatar, which may halt tourism from the Middle East, and affect many connecting flights from Europe.

The ministry says, however, that travel between Thailand and the Middle East may remain unchanged, as major airlines -- including Qatar Airways -- are still operating as usual.

Some 4.4% of tourists from Thailand arrived on a flight from the Middle East.

Visitors from Arab countries usually travel with family and seek out medical treatment here.

Ittirit Kinglake, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT), said that despite the former factors he is ''optimistic that Thailand will attract the 34 million tourists which the council projects for this year".

During the first five months, 14.61 million foreign tourists visited Thailand -- a 3.2% increase from the same period last year. Visitors have spent 747.07 billion baht in the country so far this year.

By contrast, locals made 45.14 million domestic trips and generated income of 305.38 billion baht for the economy in the same interval.

Hotel operators in Bangkok said the high season will likely begin in late November or early December, judging from advance booking made from overseas markets.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Weakening of the baht
« Reply #179 on: July 09, 2017, 02:29:36 PM »
Weakening of the baht could boost Thai exports

The baht has slightly weakened after the US Department of Labour reported on Friday that the US economy had added 222,000 new jobs in June. The US job growth was greater than expected.

The Thai currency weakened yesterday to slightly over 34 per US dollar after it strengthened to over 33 per dollar on Monday.

Amonthep Chawla, head of the research office at CIMB Thai Bank, said the easing might be temporary and the baht would be volatile looking ahead. The market is waiting to see data on the US gross domestic product in the second quarter and what the Federal Reserve would do about its huge balance sheet, he said. Thai exporters have previously complained about a strong baht, fearing it would drag down exports in the second half of the year. Appreciation of the baht would make Thai products more expensive in the global market.

The Nation
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.
 

 



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