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News and Info Forums => Thailand News => Business & Economy => Topic started by: Johnnie F. on February 09, 2012, 01:12:43 PM

Title: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: Johnnie F. on February 09, 2012, 01:12:43 PM
Baht strongest in 2 months    
     
BANGKOK, 8 February 2012 (NNT) – The baht has appreciated to the highest level in two months after the Euro rose for the first time during the same period. The Euro has strengthened due to investors’ confidence that Greece will accept the second round of aid to avoid a default.

Soon after the market opened today, the baht currency appreciated 10 Satang to 30.86 against the greenback or 1% compared to yesterday’s closing value of 30.95. The baht had been continuously rising to 30.80-30.83 against the US dollar at 10.30 am.

Currency analysts said apart from the positive sentiment about Greece, continuous flow of funds to Thai stock markets contributed to the two-month high of the Thai currency. The analysts forecast that the baht would keep on strengthening in a short term but suggested a close watch on whether Greece would be able to tackle its public debt problem.

As for domestic gold price, it has increased by 250 baht per troy ounce to 25,500 baht per troy ounce for gold bullion. As for gold ornament, it is now sold at 25,900 baht per troy ounce after the Fed Chairman said in Congress that the US economy would recover at a slower rate, and therefore interest rate must remain low.

NNT

Thread title changed on 8/13/2015 by admin upon request
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months ♦ FTI wants action on strong baht
Post by: thaiga on January 19, 2013, 06:37:54 PM
The Bank of Thailand should intervene to ensure the Thai baht moves in line with other regional currencies, says the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).

FTI chairman Payungsak Chartsuthipol said on Saturday he was concerned that the strong baht would affect the trade competitiveness of Thai manufacturers, particularly exporters.

The baht has appreciated by 1.2% against the dollar since the start of this year. It gained 3.1% in 2012 after advancing 5% in 2011. The Thai currency has been the second strongest performer in Asia so far this year, behind the Malaysian ringgit which has gained 1.8%.

Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong conceded that if the baht appreciated much more, it could affect the competitiveness of Thai exports. He contends that the gains do not reflect real demand for Thai baht.

However, demand for baht is expected to remain very high as foreign funds pour into the country's stock and bond markets in search of higher returns than in developed markets.

Average daily turnover on the Stock Exchange of Thailand has exceeded 50 billion baht since the start of this year, compared with an average of 32 billion in 2012. Foreign funds account for 20% of trade on the local stock market.

It is the duty of the central bank to oversee the short-term baht fluctuations and rapid inflows and outflows of foreign investment, said Mr Kittiratt, who is also deputy prime minister for economic matters.

Central bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said the baht fluctuation was caused by foreign capital inflows to the local bond and stock markets.

He also admitted that there were signs of short-term profit-taking by foreign investors.

However, the baht's movement was in line with those of other currencies in the region and therefore no intervention was taking place at this time, Mr Prasarn said.

Thiti Tantikulanan, head of the capital markets business division at Kasikornbank, projected the baht would appreciate to 29.50 by mid-2013 and further strengthen to 29.00 baht by the end of the year.

bangkokpost
Title: Re: Baht set for biggest weekly loss
Post by: thaiga on January 25, 2013, 12:45:16 PM
Thailand's baht was headed for its biggest weekly loss since June amid concern its appreciation to a 17-month high versus the United States dollar and a four-year high against the yen will hurt exports. Government bonds held steady.

The currency snapped a run of seven weekly rallies after Thailand reported overseas sales data on Jan 23 that missed economist estimates. Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said yesterday he would like to see the baht "a little bit" weaker as appreciation was putting pressure on exporters. The currency reached the strongest level since Aug 2011 versus the dollar on Jan 21 and hit the highest level since Oct 2008 versus the yen on Friday.

"The authorities are getting more uncomfortable with sharp appreciation against the dollar and the yen," said Wee-Khoon Chong, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.

The baht slumped 0.4% from a week ago and 0.2% Friday to 29.86 per dollar as of 8.50am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was the first five-day loss since a period ended Nov 16 and the biggest weekly drop since June 22. It rose 0.7% Friday versus the Japanese currency to 3.0289 yen, earlier hitting a four-year high of 3.0410 earlier.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, jumped 35 basis points, or 0.35 percentage point, to 4.67% this week. The rate climbed 22 basis points Friday.

Exports, which account for about two-thirds of Thailand's economy, rose 13% in December after an increase of 27% the previous month, according to official data. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a gain of 21.5%. Japan is the second-largest buyer of Thai shipments, after China, and the US is the third-biggest.

The yield on the 3.125% government bonds due Dec 2015 held steady this week and today at 2.93%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bangkokpost
Title: Re: Industrialist says stronger Thai baht only short term
Post by: thaiga on January 28, 2013, 04:05:59 PM
BANGKOK, Jan 28 –A senior Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) officer predicted that the appreciation of Thai baht will be short term given its slight depreciation today.

FTI Secretary-General Thanit Sorat said the rapid strength of the Thai currency was mainly due to the inflow of foreign funds to turn a profit in Thailand where interest rates are higher than in western countries.

Interest rates from the government’s bonds provide 3-3.5 per cent yields, higher by 1 per cent than in the US and Europe, he said, expressing belief that the inflow of foreign funds for speculative investment in the Thai stock market will gradually slow down and the central bank has closely monitored the situation.

The current profit earning ratio in the Thai stock market has increased 16 fold which is rather high, he said.

He added that manufacturers and exporters in the automotive and electronics industries have cashed in on the strong Thai baht while small and medium-size businesses are on the losing side due to higher prices of imported raw materials.

The appreciating currency has weakened Thai exporters’ competitive edge by 1-2 per cent due to higher product prices but they are more concerned with the fluctuating currency movement rather than the strong baht, he said.

The most important factor favouring export growth is the economic stability of Thailand's trading partners, not the country's currency strength or weakness, he said, citing an example in 2011 when the Thai baht was Bt29 to a US dollar but Thailand enjoyed a 14-15 per cent export growth. (MCOT online news)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months ♦ measures to tackle strong baht
Post by: thaiga on February 18, 2013, 03:39:58 PM
BoT introduces three measures to tackle strong baht

BANGKOK, 18 February 2013 (NNT) - The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has revealed three measures to tackle the strong baht, all aimed at encouraging baht holders to use the baht to buy more foreign currencies.

The BoT is reportedly in the process of authorising three measures to weaken the baht. The first measure is to lift the limit on the amount of investment that SMEs and individual investors can invest in foreign properties. Earlier SMEs and individual investors had to ask for authorisation from the BoT for any investment larger than 50 million US dollars.

The second measure is to allow those with loans in foreign currencies to buy and deposit foreign currencies in their accounts, in amounts no larger than the size of their loans.

The third measure is to lift the limit on the amount of money that may be transfered outside of the country, previously capped at 2,000 US dollars per transaction. The measure will allow transfers of funds of any amount according to the transferer's need, subject to authorisation by the BoT.

The measures came after the Finance Ministry pressured on the BoT to urgently solve the problem of the strong baht. Commenting on the current situation, Assistant to the BoT Governor on Financial Markets, Chantawan Sucharitkul said that there would still be an influx of capital into the country in April, but the it would not be as strong as that in March.

As for capital control measures, Ms Chantawan said the BoT "does not consider a capital control measure appropriate at this point", pointing out that the BoT has different levels of measures suitable for different levels of imbalances.
Title: Re: Govt won't act to halt baht's rise ♦ Currency hits 16-yr high
Post by: thaiga on March 21, 2013, 12:05:46 PM
Everything that goes up must come down. The higher it goes the harder it falls.

Currency hits 16-yr high; govt spending will ease pressure on unit, Kittiratt says

BANGKOK: -- Financial authorities yesterday remained adamant that they would not intervene in the foreign-exchange market despite renewed calls for action from the private sector as the baht strengthened to a 16-year high of 29.14 to the US dollar on waves of capital inflows.

"There will be no measure to intervene in the foreign-exchange market," Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said.

Kittiratt, also the finance minister, urged patience, saying the imports that would account for half of the government's Bt2-trillion infrastructure investment plan would balance the forces pushing up the currency.

"The plan should kick off late this year or early next year. Until then, everyone needs to live with the appreciation," he said.

He showed little sympathy for some of the grumblers, saying an ill-advised response by authorities could backfire.

"For those seeking short-term gains, they can't complain when facing losses," he said.

"An unconventional measure will only ruin confidence among the global community," he said.

The Bank of Thailand is the authority in full charge of currency stabilisation, he said. However, the central bank should have lowered the policy rate when the baht was trading above 31 per greenback. A rate cut is the real solution while the government has taken other steps like introducing incentives for machinery imports, he added.

Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul also said there was no need for special remedies despite the "rapid appreciation".

Thailand's economic success story is drawing in funds, while foreign players are skittish about the election in Malaysia and chronic current-account deficits in Indonesia, he said.

The baht matched 1997's peak of 29.14 after advancing 0.8 per cent yesterday, the biggest gain since January 2. The currency is up nearly 2 per cent this month and 4.7 per cent this year, though four other major currencies in Southeast Asia declined this month.

The robust recovery has continued to attract international attention, mostly to the bond market. After net buys of $6.4 billion (Bt186.2 billion) in the first two months, this month foreigners have bought $2.4 billion net of local bonds.

This month alone, foreign net buys of Thai stocks reached Bt8.89 billion after net buys of Bt6.5 billion ($250 million) in the first two months. Worries over the euro zone's future following the Cyprus episode as well as possible forex intervention have weighed on market sentiment in the past three days, after the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index zoomed to a 19-year high last week. Most Asian stocks yesterday declined amid concern that Cyprus' rejection of a bailout plan shows Europe will struggle to contain its debt crisis.

"The [Thai] economy is very solid and the central bank seems to be quite tolerant with the baht's gains," Kozo Hasegawa, a foreign-exchange trader in Bangkok at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, told Bloomberg. "But because the pace of appreciation was so fast, the tolerance doesn't mean they won't intervene at all, and we may see some correction soon."

Standard Chartered Bank sees the baht ending the year at 29.75, versus 29.10 forecast by Nomura. Kasikornbank has 28.50 in mind.

Thiti Tantikulanun, head of capital markets at KBank, admitted that the baht yesterday was not dancing in line with regional currencies. He attributed that to massive dollar sales by exporters, who fear further appreciation, which would reduce their income in baht terms.

"That's on top of inflows to the bond market, which is the major driver behind the appreciation," he said. While dollar sells will continue, he discounted the baht trading above 29 in the short term.

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said that if the central bank announces no measure this week, the FTI will seek a meeting with its governor.

Kasikorn Research Centre estimates that every 1-percentage-point rise in the baht would shave 0.30 percentage point off of economic growth.

the nation
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months ♦ Authorities play it cool
Post by: thaiga on March 22, 2013, 02:35:36 PM
The Bank of Thailand and the Finance Ministry have shown great tolerance for the surge in the baht, which yesterday touched 29.09 to the US dollar, yet another post-1997 high.

(http://img.imagesia.com/fichiers/6n/484075_imagesia-com_6nnx_large.jpg) (http://imagesia.com/484075_6nnx)

Unmanageable risk from the flood of liquidity produced by the US, the EU and Japan to tackle their economic woes is one explanation. Sounder domestic economic fundamentals are another.

The central bank seems more inclined to let market forces influence the foreign exchange market.

Prasarn Trairatvorakul, governor of the Bank of Thailand, has said the rapid appreciation of the baht on Monday and Tuesday mainly reflected improved sentiment in the Thai economy relative to others in East and Southeast Asia.

Around the region, Malaysia will hold a general election mid-year, heightening business climate risk, Indonesia is mired in a current account deficit, and South Korean exports stand to be seriously affected by Japan's depreciating yen.

Mr Prasarn said foreign holdings in the domestic bond market have increased over the years.

But it remains more attractive than others in the region, as the lower proportion of foreign holdings creates better opportunities for investors to rotate their portfolios.

The Finance Ministry has affirmed that no "non-market measures", meaning capital controls, will be implemented.

Analysts say the Thai market previously underperformed its regional peers in the wake of domestic political turmoil and the flood crisis, and this year's foreign capital inflows partly reflect investors' attempts to catch up.

This was also triggered by news of the US backing away from the fiscal cliff at the start of the year.

The US Federal Reserve's announcement of an indefinite time frame for US$85 billion worth of asset purchases per month and Japan's policy of increasing money injections into the economy guarantee the global economy will still have increased liquidity on its hands for the foreseeable future.

Bank of Thailand data show foreign capital inflows to the local bond and equities markets totalled $2.83 billion in January, a 2.5-fold increase year-on-year, with most of it into short-term bonds.

But the inflows decreased to $200 million last month, with some weeks recording net capital outflows in response to election news in Italy and negative developments in the euro zone.

In 2006, the central bank extensively intervened to address a strengthening baht, followed by imposition of a 30% unremunerated reserve requirement.

The difference now, however, is the domestic economy is enjoying strong demand growth and the global economy is is expected to see some improvement in the second half of this year.

Analysts feel policymakers' greater tolerance this time around could be a bid to support structural adjustments to make the economy more productive and expand the domestic demand base.

The central bank and the ministry also hope any effects of the capital inflows will be countered by more outbound investment, imports and foreign debt repayment.

Kobsidthi Silpachai, the head of capital market business research at Kasikornbank, said the central bank has delivered a clear message of handing over the job to the private sector by hedging contracts.

However, he voiced concern about the heavy burden on exporters.

But Barclays Capital analysts wrote in a report that they do not expect the central bank to take action in the near term to stem the baht appreciation.

They expressed confidence Thai economic fundamentals are strong enough to shoulder the strengthening currency.

Baht appreciation of 4.5% to the dollar is not seen as significant, and the yen's weakness has been positive for the Thai economy, said the report.

"The baht's appreciation of more than 20% against the yen over the past six months has been a strong positive, given that imports from Japan account for 7% of gross domestic product. Moreover, as an important part of the Japanese automotive sector's supply chain, lower import prices support corporate profitability and make re-exporting more competitive," they wrote.

bangkokpost

Finance minister: Stay the course, corporate mavens

While ruling out the possibility of short-term measures to rein in the strong baht, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said the Thai currency should be weakened to help drive exports.

"We want to see exports grow at a higher rate, and to make that happen, the baht should be weaker and interest rates lower," he told the CEO Economic Outlook forum in Bangkok yesterday.

However, Mr Kittiratt said the government will not use short-term measures but rather existing monetary and fiscal policies.

"The short-term measures used by Thailand several years ago to curb capital inflows were not deemed acceptable by the international community. We don't want to create the perception that Thailand is used to such tactics. The government does not want to use a surprise measure," Mr Kittiratt said as he played down calls from business leaders for the government to launch measures to curb short-term capital inflows.

He also brushed aside speculation the exchange rate will hit 27 baht to the US dollar.

"It is impossible that the baht will reach 26 or 27 baht to the dollar, as market forces will play their role to correct the rate. But before that happens, we don't want to see a strong baht hurting employment," he said.

The state's 2-trillion-baht infrastructure investment plan and 350-billion water management scheme will trigger rising capital outflows to help tame baht gains, said Mr Kittiratt.

He pointed out stability of the exchange rate and interest rate are government priorities to ensure the Thai economy grows by 7% per year.

Anurat Khokasai, chief operations and marketing officer at the seafood firm Prantalay Marketing Co, called for urgent action from the government to curb the baht's strength.

Without immediate measures, Thailand's annual food exports of 970 billion baht will be in jeopardy, he said.

Of that total, shrimp exports make up 80 billion baht.

"Exports to Japan have dropped 25% in value due to the weakening yen," said Mr Anurat, adding that a lower shrimp supply due to early mortality syndrome has raised the cost by 40%.

"This is the big issue for the government and the Bank of Thailand. The industry itself does not have a problem competing with others in the region, but we're facing a war of exchange rates," he said.

The baht is now quoted at 29 to the greenback compared with 32 baht last year. It is 37-38 baht against the euro compared with 40 in 2012.

"If the government wants Thai exports to remain competitive, they'll have to intervene in the baht. Otherwise, export value will likely see a drastic impact," said Mr Anurat.

Title: Re: Baht breaks 29-per-dollar barrier
Post by: thaiga on April 10, 2013, 12:23:04 AM
The baht jumped the most in 10 months, breaching 29 per dollar for the first time since 1997.

(http://koratfart.com/MGalleryItem.php?id=153)
Baht is gold... or so it seemed Tuesday as the currency broke the barrier of 29-per US dollar briefly, for the first time since 1997.

Demand for the nation's bonds rose amid unprecedented monetary easing in Japan. Stocks dropped to a two-month low.

The currency jumped 1 per cent from its April 5 close to 29.02 against the greenback as of 4:51 p.m. in Bangkok after reaching 28.93 earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the biggest advance since June 4.

Tuesday's baht gains were "too fast" and the Bank of Thailand is ready to intervene if the currency's moves are not consistent with fundamentals, Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said. Capital controls are not being considered, he added.

Global funds bought $292 million more Thai government debt than they sold last week, adding to net purchases of $9.6 billion in the first quarter, official data show. That compares with $31 billion for the whole of 2012.

"With floods of cash in Japan where rates are so low, investors are seeking higher returns and in this region, Thailand looks good thanks to its stable economy and political situation," said Tsutomu Soma, manager of Rakuten Securities Inc's fixed-income business unit department in Tokyo. "And the weaker yen won't be harmful for Thailand as it doesn't compete with Japan, unlike South Korea or China."

The baht has strengthened 5.3 per cent this year versus the greenback, the biggest gain among Asia's 11 most-used currencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 28.93 earlier today, the strongest level since a devaluation in 1997 that sparked the Asian financial crisis.

Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on April 10, 2013, 11:43:14 AM
Have you noticed that the tv Asian business programmes, such as on BBC and CNN, hardly ever mention Thailand, the country that aims to be the 'hub' of Asean?                                                                               
Title: Re: Baht falls
Post by: thaiga on April 11, 2013, 01:44:10 PM
Baht falls, bonds change little

Thailand's baht dropped for the first time in more than a week amid concern the Bank of Thailand will intervene to slow the pace of appreciation that may hurt exports. Government bonds were little changed.

The currency has advanced 5.2% this year, the best performance in Asia, and was beyond 29 per US dollar this week for the first time since 1997.

BoT Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on Wednesday that Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has voiced concerns about the strength of the baht and its impact on exporters. He said the central bank will closely monitor the currency's movement. The Bank of Japan last week announced it will buy 7.5 trillion yen ($75 billon) in bonds a month under its monetary easing programme.

"Amid continued appreciation pressure on the Asian currencies, the baht’s gains are stalled for now with some concerns about intervention," said Hideki Hayashi, a researcher at the Japan Center for Economic Research in Tokyo. "With monetary easing by central banks in developed nations, funds are flowing into the bonds in the region where currency appreciation is expected."

The baht fell 0.2% to 29.07 per dollar as of 8.53am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 28.88 on Wednesday, the strongest level since a devaluation in July 1997 that sparked the Asian financial crisis. One-month implied volatility for the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 5.29%.

Global funds bought $1.1 billion more Thai sovereign debt than they sold this month through yesterday, taking this year’s net purchases to $11 billion, according to Thai Bond Market Association data. That compares with $31 billion of inflows in the whole of 2012.

The yield on the 3.625% government bonds June 2023 was little changed at 3.44%, the lowest level since Nov 5, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Title: Re: Baht Moving Beyond Fundamentals
Post by: thaiga on April 19, 2013, 07:24:21 PM
Baht moving beyond fundamentals: BOT

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht is advancing well above its fundamentals, conceded Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul on Friday.

At 8.18am, the currency hit a new 16-year high at 28.71 per dollar, gaining 2.02 per cent from end-March, according to Bank of Thailand data. At one point, it touched 28.68. This indicates the 6 per cent increase from the end of last year.

Month to date, the currency also gained 6.40 per cent against Japanese yen, at 29.26 per 100 yen. It also appreciated by 0.17 per cent against euro to 27.478.

Prasarn said today that the currency is strengthening above the economic fundamentals.

He did not elaborate further or mention any measure the contain the appreciation.

Prasarn had a meeting with the prime minister and economic government units on April 18. He said that the agenda was mainly about the export target, not about the exchange rates.

the nation

It will hit the tourist areas with people who come here for a holiday and the ex-pat living off his pensions, finding their currency is no longer enough. most expats will stay and tourists will still come to Thailand but less Baht means less goods being bought.
Title: Re: Potential layoffs if Thai baht touches Bt27 / US dollar: Survey.
Post by: thaiga on April 23, 2013, 02:21:18 PM
BANGKOK, April 23-A number of Thai entrepreneurs fear they may need to lay off employees if the baht strengthens to 27-27.90 against the US dollar, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

(http://img.imagesia.com/fichiers/7k/13666974238470-640x390x2_imagesia-com_7kwk_large.jpg) (http://imagesia.com/13666974238470-640x390x2_7kwk)

UTCC Business Forecasting Centre director Thanawat Polvichai released the survey result from among entrepreneurs nationwide on possible negative impacts from the baht which is hovering around Bt28.80-29.10 against the greenback.
 
According to the survey, 38.1 per cent said the current rate is moderately appropriate, while one in three said the current rate is definitely not appropriate.
 
Moreover, 42.1 per cent of respondents said the current exchange rate undermined their businesses regarding competitiveness and exports.
 
Nearly one fourth -- 23.8 per cent -- said it could cause a drop in exports.
 
Most entrepreneurs surveyed said the proper currency exchange rate should remain around Bt30.48 per dollar. The strengthening of the baht to 29.18 is acceptable but if it rises further to 27-27.90, more than 12 per cent said they will have no choice but to lay off employees and 9.8 per cent said they have to close their businesses.
 
The government should intervene to prevent the baht from a rapid appreciation and manage the unit to stay between Bt29-30 per US dollar, according to those surveyed.
 
The Bank of Thailand has also been urged to cut money exchange fees and find sources to offer soft loans for help those affected, or the bank should cut interest rate and rein in foreign capital inflows. (MCOT online news)

More calls for action on Baht

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand is widely expected to take action soon to rein appreciation of the baht as its "excessive" gain is having a widespread negative impact on the export sector as well as the government's tax revenue.

Markets are braced for the action. Touching a new 16-year high yesterday with a 0.18 per cent rise from Friday's closing to 25.58 per US dollar, the baht later lost 0.2 per cent to 28.74 at 3.12pm. So far this month, the baht has gained more than 2 per cent against the dollar and 8 per cent over the Japanese yen, making Thai goods more expensive in the countries where trade is denominated in the two currencies.

Pakorn Peetathawatchai, Stock Exchange of Thailand’s executive vice-president, yesterday recommended investors to closely monitor exchange rates, saying that there could be capital controls due to the baht's excessive gain.

"It remains to be seen how the authorities will act to control the hot money. We can't afford to take no action. We have never witnessed the baht appreciate this quickly, or the sharp rise in the stock market like this," Pakorn said.

In the first quarter, the SET index gained 12.15 per cent, making it the world's best-performing market after Vietnam (18.7 per cent), the Philippines (17.1 per cent), Laos (15.9 per cent) and Indonesia (14.5 per cent). Overseas investors bought US$2 billion more Thai sovereign debt than they sold this month through to April 19, adding to net purchases of $9.8 billion in the first quarter.

To stem the baht's appreciation, former Bank of Thailand chairman MR Chatu Mongol Sonakul urged the central bank to buy more dollars, rather than cut the policy rate.

Speaking on the sidelines of a seminar yesterday, Chatu Mongol said that it is necessary to take care of the export sector, which is suffering acutely. He said he understood that financial stability is the BOT's priority, but it should also pay attention to economic progress.

He noted that heavier sterilisation - the buying of US dollars to depress the baht's price - would boost the BOT's accounting loss, but said that's just a figure. China's central bank has also accumulated more than $3 trillion in foreign currencies to stabilise the yuan. With reserves of more than $200 million - 60 per cent of gross national product (GNP), the BOT has the capacity to strengthen its sterilisation efforts, Chatu Mongol said.

He strongly opposed a cut in the policy rate, as suggested by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong and exporters, saying that could spur consumption and hence inflation.

"It's better for the central bank to shoulder the sterilisation cost than to cut the rate, as higher inflation would affect the entire country," he said.

Foreseeing continued inflows of foreign capital, he noted that it was time to allocate some foreign reserves to finance a sovereign wealth fund, as the fund's overseas investment would counter capital inflows.

Hurting revenues

While saying that the baht's rise is too fast, Paiboon Kittisrikangwan, an assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand, was adamant that BOT had policy options in hand. Yet, for now, it wants to observe market reactions and assess the necessity of measures.

On Friday, the Commerce Ministry, which still maintains this year's export target at 8 to 9 per cent, will hold a discussion with exporters. The Thai Frozen Foods Association earlier estimated that its producers will lose Bt20 billion for every Bt1 increase in the baht against the dollar. The association is fretting that it may fail to achieve its revenue target of Bt1 trillion this year.

The strong baht is also now expected to hurt the government's revenue projections.

Wanee Thasanamontien, principal adviser on tax strategies, said that export-oriented companies in particular will see a sharp decline in revenue when dollar-denominated income is converted to baht. With lower profits, the companies will also pay lower income taxes.

Meanwhile, the stronger baht would make dollar-denominated imports cheaper. The Revenue Department, which collects taxes according to CIF (cost, insurance and freight) rates, will then collect a smaller amount of tax.

This will further lessen the department's revenue, as the corporate income tax cut to 20 per cent this year would slash annual revenue by another Bt80 billion. Wanee estimated that if corporate earnings show annualised growth by 25 per cent or more, this would compensate for the missing revenue. The department aims to collect Bt1.77 trillion this fiscal year.

the nation
Title: Re: Baht rises again Thursday
Post by: thaiga on April 25, 2013, 12:38:01 PM
The baht ended three days of losses as international investors increased holdings of Thailand's debt amidst optimism the economy is improving.

The baht rose 0.1 per cent to 28.90 per dollar as of 9:41 am Thursday in Bangkok after reaching a one-week low of 28.99 earlier in the day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

(http://img.imagesia.com/fichiers/7m/494851_imagesia-com_7mn0_large.jpg) (http://imagesia.com/494851_7mn0)

The currency touched 28.56 on April 22 and April 19, the strongest level since a devaluation in July 1997 that sparked the Asian financial crisis.

Five-year government bonds rose. Global funds bought $2.2 billion more sovereign debt than they sold this month through Wednesday, taking this year's net purchases to $12 billion, Thai Bond Market Association data show.

The Bank of Thailand raised its 2013 growth forecast on April 12 to 5.1 per cent from its January estimate of 4.9 per cent.

The central bank is concerned about the baht's advance to a 16-year high earlier this month, assistant governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul said Wednesday.

"Inflows in bonds continue and the baht is still under pressure to appreciate," said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Bangkok. "But there is concern about intervention and also some demand to buy dollars, slowing movements in the baht for now."

bangkokpost
Title: Re: Urgent task force to tackle baht volatility, declining exports
Post by: thaiga on April 26, 2013, 08:35:53 PM
BANGKOK, April 26 –Thai industrialists and business operators met with Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom today to discuss the overwhelming detrimental impact of the currency exchange rate on Thai exports since early this year.

The minister said the joint public and private sector committee will successively follow up development on the export landscape and meet regularly every quarter, or every month during the “unusual period,” until the Thai currency situation returns to normal.

Today’s meeting concluded that the country’s 8-9 per cent export target would remain unchanged, hoping that the baht will gradually slide down soon.

Payungsak Chatsuthipol, Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) chairman, said the private sector asked the Commerce Ministry to boost border trade which is currently at a combined value of Bt1 trillion or 10 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) to substitute the losing export revenue from the European and US markets.

The FTI, in a meeting with the central bank next Tuesday, will propose a five-point measure to deal with the strengthening baht such as a one-per cent reduction of the policy interest rate and control of foreign capital inflow, said Mr Payungsak.

He said Thai exporters have been severely battered by the strong baht, with exports falling by 40 per cent for jewellery and 30 per cent for industrial products while textiles, food and auto industries may give reduced purchase orders in the future.

Pornsilp Patcharintanakul of the Thai Chamber of Commerce called on the BoT to reduce the policy interest rate by 0.25 per cent as a signal to slow down foreign capital inflow.

The government should also levy tax on incoming capital – a measure already adopted by Malaysia, he said. (MCOT online news)

Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: coolkorat on April 26, 2013, 08:58:24 PM
How long will large scale manufacturers patiently sit-out an over-strong baht? Nikon, Honda etc. suffered in the floods. Now they suffer wage hikes (with the inevitable knock-on from the minimum wage increase) and a strong currency.

Any significant manufacturer must be looking carefully at neighbouring countries now. The Thai government needs to act quickly before an exodus begins. Otherwise they will be forced to give incentives to encourage these companies to remain.
Title: Re: Surging baht wreaks havoc on Thai rice exports
Post by: thaiga on May 01, 2013, 04:04:56 PM
BANGKOK, May 1 – Thailand’s export target growth of 8-9 per cent may be reduced due to the volatile Thai currency, according to Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom.

He repeated his call for the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to provide measures to tackle the appreciating baht, warning that the country’s overall exports will be adversely affected if action is not taken.

Mr Boonsong is scheduled to meet with Thai commercial envoys worldwide late this month to evaluate the situation.

He said the surging baht has also affected the government’s release of a new lot of rice under government-to-government deals as it is difficult to fix the prices.

Thailand may have to sell rice at lower prices and the country may have to suffer unnecessary losses in releasing new stocks, he said.

He stood firm that the government did not approve the release of two million tonnes of rice while the new pledging scheme for the harvest in 2013/2014 has yet to be worked out, probably not until October. (MCOT online news)
Title: Re: Further gains expected in wake of ECB rate cut
Post by: thaiga on May 05, 2013, 03:36:51 PM
PM promises to act quickly on baht surge

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has reiterated her concerns about the surging baht saying that the government will work quickly to ease the impacts of the currency's rise on the private sector.

The premier was responding to Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) chairman Payungsak Chartsuthipol, who met her at Government House yesterday. He asked Ms Yingluck to act urgently to deal with the baht's appreciation.

She said the government will assign agencies to consider the FTI's requests, while the government has implemented various policies to stabilise the currency including speeding up investment, promoting baht borrowing, and setting a requirement for state enterprises to pay foreign debts ahead of schedule.

Mr Payungsak called on the government to implement measures to deal with the rising baht urgently, not to wait for the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on May 29.

He said the baht is expected to strengthen further next week, after the European Central Bank slashed its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 0.5% on Thursday.

He said the strong baht could destroy the supply chain of domestic industry because manufacturers have already turned to importing raw materials and parts instead of using local supplies.

"The FTI doesn't want the government to make the baht depreciate, but we want its value to be in line with the levels of our trading competitors in the region," Mr Payungsak said.

"We are very worried the strong baht will continue and adversely affect exporters in the second and third quarter." He said many exporters had delayed receiving orders from customers due to concerns over further baht appreciation.

Export growth this year will fall to 4-5% from the 8-9% target, Mr Payungsak said, proposing the MPC cut its policy interest rate by 1% point from the current 2.75%.

The baht has appreciated by 6.28% since early this year, compared with 0.27% for the Malaysian ringgit and 0.69% for the Indonesian rupiah, while the Japanese yen has depreciated 15%, the South Korean won weakened by 5%, and the Vietnamese dong appreciated by 0.7%, the FTI chairman said.

Mr Payungsak said the FTI will meet in the next week or two to discuss what action to take if the government fails to draw up any measures.

Democrat MP and former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij said the BoT should explain the heavy losses on its balance sheet to prevent the information being "twisted" to discredit the central bank governor.

On his Facebook page, Mr Korn said the government was out to attack the BoT by citing the "losses" from holding the dollars it bought which are now worth less against the strong baht than when they were purchased. The BoT bought the dollars to manage the baht value.

Mr Korn added that Veerathai Santiprabhob, a former chief strategy officer at the Stock Exchange of Thailand, has said the losses, put at 800 billion baht, account for an almost negligible fraction of the national budget.

Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday excuses were being made to dismiss the central bank governor.

source (http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/348336/pm-promises-to-act-quickly-on-baht-surge)
Title: Re: Baht rises on lack of BoT action
Post by: thaiga on May 13, 2013, 03:05:50 PM
The baht strengthened Monday, snapping a two-day slide, as the governor of the Bank of Thailand said steps to slow the currency's gains were not discussed at a meeting with government officials.

Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Bank of Thailand monetary policy committee members and representatives of the government and private sector were at the meeting Monday. Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong, who has repeatedly called for a cut in borrowing costs to stem fund inflows, attended as well.

Governor Prasarn said the central bank's rate-setting committee will meet on May 29 as scheduled, ruling out a special session.

No one put pressure on the central bank to move on the policy rate at today's meeting, he told reporters in Bangkok.

The baht reached a 16-year high last month as monetary easing in developed nations increased the flow of funds to emerging markets.

"Concerns that they will announce something from today's meeting, which has put downward pressure on the baht since late last week, eased just for now, helping it rebound," said Toyomu Chihaya, assistant general manager of the Bangkok treasury department at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.

"It doesn't mean the baht will continue to advance from here. There remains some concern about measures to stem the appreciation."

The currency climbed 0.3 per cent to 29.68 per dollar as of 1:54pm in Bangkok. It had slipped 1.4 per cent in the two days through May 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The baht touched a two-month low of 29.85 earlier.

The baht is still up 3 per cent this year, making it the best performer among Asia's 11 most-traded currencies. It reached 28.56 on April 22 and April 19, the strongest level since July 1997, the start of a recession.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, slumped 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 6.31 per cent.

Narongchai Akrasanee, a member of the monetary policy committee, said on Monday taht four measures proposed to help stem capital inflows are sufficient. Finance Minister Kittiratt said the measures should be considered "carefully" and that lowering the key rate is just one option.

Thailand's benchmark interest rate of 2.75 per cent compares with a maximum of 0.25 per cent in the U.S. and 0.1 per cent in Japan. It is lower than Indonesia's 5.75 per cent, the Philippines' 3.5 per cent and Malaysia's 3 per cent.

The yield on the 3.625 per cent government bonds due June 2023 rose two basis points to 3.36 per cent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate reached 3.33 per cent on May 10, the lowest level since February 2012.

bangkokpost


Title: Re: Rising baht could trigger crisis
Post by: thaiga on May 18, 2013, 01:48:55 PM
Rising baht could trigger crisis: Thaksin

BANGKOK: -- Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra warned yesterday that a lack of cooperation between the central bank and the Finance Ministry in reining in the strengthening baht could lead to a new financial crisis for Thailand.

Thaksin said the current economic indexes were worrying. "I like looking at different indexes and often get alarmed," he said.

"During the crisis, only the paranoid survived," he added, quoting Andrew Grove, former chief executive of computer-chip maker Intel.

The latest message on his Facebook account (www.facebook.com/thaksinofficial (http://www.facebook.com/thaksinofficial)) posted yesterday afternoon said that Japan was able to achieve a GDP growth of 3.5 per cent in the first quarter because the Bank of Japan works directly with the Japanese government. He said Thailand's problem was that the Bank of Thailand was independent, and he accused the central bank of refusing to listen to the government.

"They [the Japanese] have a holistic approach to dealing with their economic problems. Their monetary policy and their fiscal policy are united," Thaksin said.

He also noted that the Japanese government made the yen 20-per-cent weaker and printed more banknotes under a quantitative easing policy aimed at revitalising the economy.

Thaksin, who is believed to be pulling the strings behind the ruling Pheu Thai Party, said a law issued after the 2006 coup made the Thai central bank independent from the government. "They do not listen to the government. This is worrying because both sides use their own policies and believe in their own," he said.

The ex-leader went on to say that a capital influx into Thailand was worrying and could lead to a bubble in asset pricing.

"Will there be any joint measures between the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand? I am worried. We may not have to worry, if we look at the future in the short term. But if we look at the next few years, there is cause for alarm," he said.

Thaksin said that as Thailand's GDP relies heavily on exports, an increase in baht's value of an additional Bt1 per US dollar would result in a loss of 0.7 per cent in GDP.

He said that when serving as foreign minister between 1994 and 1995, he had cautioned the central bank and the Finance Ministry "every time" he attended meetings of the bank's Exchange Equalisation Fund, but his warnings were not heeded and the financial crisis of 1997 ensued.

the nation
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on May 19, 2013, 07:55:32 AM
Korn rejects Thaksin's claim on BOT

Former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij yesterday disputed ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's claim that an independent central bank was Thailand's problem in the face of a strengthening baht.
Korn said he suspected that Thaksin was actually dissatisfied that the law prevents the government from dismissing the Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor without sufficient reasons.

"What upsets Thaksin most is that the Bank of Thailand governor cannot be removed as easily as other bureaucrats," he said in a Facebook message.

BOT governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul has resisted pressure from the government, and particularly from Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong, to have the policy interest rate reduced in order to weaken the strong baht - a measure expected to curb the currency's appreciation, which is hurting the country's exports.

Thaksin said in a Facebook message on Friday that Japan was able to achieve gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.5 per cent in the first quarter because the Bank of Japan works directly with the Japanese government. He said Thailand's problem was that the Bank of Thailand was independent, and he accused the central bank of refusing to listen to the government.

Korn said yesterday that although the Bank of Japan has less independence than the European central banks, it is in fact "not working directly under the Japanese government".

He also said that Thailand and Japan have different economic situations - for example the Japanese have massive savings - so different measures should be taken for the two countries. He did not think a similar interest rate cut to the one adopted in Japan would work for the Thai economy.

"Thaksin's problem is that he does not have a sufficient understanding of economics. It is untrue that the Thai gross domestic product depends mostly on exports. In fact, about 52 per cent of the GDP comes from domestic consumption," said Korn, who is a deputy leader of the opposition Democrat Party.

Meanwhile, Thaksin's legal adviser and spokesman Noppadon Pattama said yesterday that the ex-leader made his comments honestly, with no intention of attempting to interfere with the central bank.

The Nation
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: pop401k on May 19, 2013, 04:18:11 PM
Hmmm...  If 48% of Thailand's GDP is derived from exports, I'd say that it's economy is dependent upon them.  Try reducing GDP "national income" by nearly half and see what happens to the economy.  I think Thaksin has a better grasp of economics than the leader of the opposition.  Just sayin.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on May 19, 2013, 04:42:46 PM
I think your right.

 the writing is on the wall :-[
Title: Re: 2013 growth forecast revised downward, export growth grim
Post by: thaiga on May 20, 2013, 03:06:35 PM
BANGKOK, May 20 –
Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) forecast is lowered from 4.5-5.5 per cent to 4.2-5.2 per cent due to the disappointing Q1 economic growth of 5.3 per cent, below the previously forecast 6-7 per cent, a senior official said today.

Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, secretary general of the Office of the Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), said Thailand's Q1 economic expansion at 5.3 per cent this year is far below last year’s Q4 growth of 19.1 per cent.

Household spending increased by 4.2 per cent, a sharp drop from last year’s Q4 at 12.4 per cent while last year’s Q4 investment at 22.9 per cent dropped to only 6 per cent in Q1.

The Q1 export volume in dollars increased 4.5 per cent, almost half below the government’s 9 per cent target while the NESDB earlier forecast an 11 per cent growth, he said.

The export volume in baht increased by only 0.5 per cent given the surging Thai currency which has resulted in a Bt181 billion loss, he said, predicting Thailand’s export value to grow at only 7.6 per cent this year, much below the original 11 per cent forecast.

He called on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to give more emphasis on stabilising the baht than concentrating on inflation.

Q1 inflation remained at 3.1 per cent and it should be around 2.3-3.3 per cent this year.

Mr Arkhom said the 'currency war' and unusual inflows of foreign capital are immediate problems that should be urgently addressed by the central bank, referring to the foreign capital inflow of US$4.5 billion in the past three quarters.

The capital inflow in Q1 was US$4.775 billion, higher than the annual average value at US$2.2 billion.

He said a reduced policy interest rate would be the best solution to deter foreign capital inflows and that the BoT should enforce appropriate measures to create awareness among foreign investors that Thailand is not a haven for baht speculation.

A predicted global economic expansion of only 3.6 per cent and the continued appreciation of the baht are volatile factors for Thailand’s exports, he said. (MCOT online news)
Title: Re: Strong baht to cause veggie and fruit export to drop 20%
Post by: thaiga on May 20, 2013, 08:56:54 PM
NESDB: Strong baht to cause veggie and fruit export to drop 20%

BANGKOK, 20 May 2013 (NNT) –
The appreciation of theThai currency is expected to cause vegetable and fruit export to drop around 20 percent. Exporters, meanwhile, are calling the government to intervene in the baht situation.

The Thai Food Processors' Association has disclosed that its members are having difficulties exporting vegetable and fruit, thanks to the sluggish global economy and the fluctuation of the Thai currency. The association is, therefore, expecting to see a 20 percent drop in fruit and vegetable export. It is also urging all economy-related agencies to step up assistance measures aimed at solving the problems.

The Association further revealed that there has been a lot of capital influx into Thailand lately, which, he claimed, does not bode well for the country as a whole.

The Association has also anticipated a slight drop in vegetable and fruit production this year, reasoning that a number of farmers have switched to growing other crops like sugar cane, cassava, palm, and rubber, given these products generate higher income for the farmers.

Title: Re: Baht falls toward 4-month low
Post by: thaiga on May 28, 2013, 01:27:57 PM
Thailand's baht dropped toward a four-month low before United States data forecast to show an improvement in consumer confidence amid speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus that has boosted demand for emerging-market assets.

The currency was poised for a second monthly decline as the Bank of Thailand prepares to meet on Wednesday, with 13 of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting a 25 basis point cut in the one-day bond repurchase rate to 2.5%. Eight see no change and one a half percentage point reduction. Fed Chairman Ben S Bernanke said last week the central bank may slow the pace of quantitative easing.

"The main theme is still concern the Fed will reduce quantitative easing, which is causing dollar strength," said Disawat Tiaowvanich, a foreign-exchange trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl. "Investors and traders have been pricing in a rate cut in Thailand, but with the strong dollar trend, they don't have to bring a big cut."

The baht dropped 0.2% to 29.92 per dollar as of 9.16am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency, which fell 2% this month, touched 30.10 on May 23, the weakest level since Jan 15.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major counterparts, rose 0.2% to 83.865. It reached the highest in almost three years on May 23. The Conference Board's index of consumer sentiment probably climbed to 71 in May, a level last reached in November, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Yield Forecasts

Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said May 21 that monetary policy could be eased if the economy slows. The National Economic and Social Development Board scaled back its forecast for 2013 growth to as much as 5.2% on May 20 from 5.5 percent. Gross domestic product increased 5.3% in the first quarter, compared with 19.1% in the previous three months, official data showed May 20.

Still, the baht remains Asia's best-performing currency this year with a gain of 2.2%. It reached 28.56 on April 22 and April 19, the strongest level since July 1997.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 6.64% on Tuesday.

Thai bonds will benefit from a cut in interest rates, Tim Condon, head of Asian research at ING Groep NV, wrote in a research note to clients today. He lowered his forecast for the 10-year yield to 3.3% from 3.8%.

The yield on the 3.625% debt due June 2023 rose one basis point to 3.39%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bangkokpost
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: coolkorat on May 28, 2013, 07:57:15 PM
From a GBP perspective:

The Baht began strengthening roughly July 2008, from a high of 80/£1 falling to less than 50/£1 by April 2009. From Feb. 2010, the rate has held steady at approx. 50/£1. January this year has seen GBP decline rapidly, now bouncing along at 45/£1.

If we lived in a free-trade environment this would be fine: surely the UK should be selling more to Thailand. But given that Thailand has import restrictions, this does not apply - cars are a major UK export, but not to Thailand.....

I sincerely hope this has a damaging impact on Thai tourism AND Thai manufacturing. You can be sure any international manufacturer will be putting their new plant into Laos, Burma or Vietnam well before Thailand. If there were more unique domestic manufacturers perhaps there would be more pressure for the BOT to be controlling the surging Baht......
Title: Re: Industrialist hails govt measures to tackle surging baht
Post by: thaiga on May 29, 2013, 03:32:16 PM
BANGKOK, May 29
The government’s newest financial and economic package particularly related to the movement of the Thai baht, will be a blessing to Thailand’s exports, a leading industrialist said today.

Payungsak Chatsuthipol, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), predicted a positive result of Thai exports in three months and said cooperation among state agencies has boosted investor sentiment.

He complimented the Finance Ministry for its decision to control foreign capital outflows – a move which he believed will deter speculation in the money market.

When the baht moves in accord with the currencies of Thailand’s trading partners, exports will surge, he said.

He expressed optimism that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which meets today will come up with a decision in favour of the country’s economic stability. (MCOT online news)

Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on June 05, 2013, 12:31:57 PM
From a GBP perspective:

The Baht began strengthening roughly July 2008, from a high of 80/£1 falling to less than 50/£1 by April 2009. From Feb. 2010, the rate has held steady at approx. 50/£1. January this year has seen GBP decline rapidly, now bouncing along at 45/£1.

If we lived in a free-trade environment this would be fine: surely the UK should be selling more to Thailand. But given that Thailand has import restrictions, this does not apply - cars are a major UK export, but not to Thailand.....

I sincerely hope this has a damaging impact on Thai tourism AND Thai manufacturing. You can be sure any international manufacturer will be putting their new plant into Laos, Burma or Vietnam well before Thailand. If there were more unique domestic manufacturers perhaps there would be more pressure for the BOT to be controlling the surging Baht......
Looks like things are on the move now GBP United Kingdom 45.99 EUR Euro Zone 39.35 bangkokbank

Thailand’s baht fell to a five-month low after foreign funds pulled money from local assets amid speculation the government will take steps to control fund flows and the Federal Reserve will reduce its stimulus.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/baht-falls-to-five-month-low-as-capital-control-concern-lingers.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/baht-falls-to-five-month-low-as-capital-control-concern-lingers.html)

Title: Re: Baht falls
Post by: thaiga on June 12, 2013, 01:13:58 PM
Baht falls to nine-month low

Thailand's baht weakened beyond 31 per US dollar for the first time since September as international investors cut holdings of the country's assets amid speculation the US Federal Reserve will trim its monetary stimulus.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares fell 0.7% on Wednesday and has lost 8.9% since May 22, when Fed Chairman Ben S Bernanke said policy makers could reduce the $85 billion a month in bond purchases should there be a sustained improvement in the jobs market. Global funds sold $921 million more Thai stocks than they bought this month through Tuesday and pulled a net $158 million from bonds, official data show.

"Funds are leaving Thailand and that is weighing on the baht," said Kozo Hasegawa, a Bangkok-based foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. "Fund movements by foreign investors are a major driver for the baht, while both importers and exporters have taken a wait-and-see attitude."

The baht fell 0.3% to 31.08 per dollar as of 9.25am in Bangkok and touched 31.10 earlier, the weakest level since September 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed 22 basis points, or 0.22 percentage point, to 7.32%. The gauge last reached that level in December 2011.

The yield on the 3.625% government bonds due June 2023 rose one basis point to 3.99%, the highest level since September 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/354687/baht-falls-to-nine-month-low-as-global-funds-trim-asset-holdings)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on June 12, 2013, 05:10:31 PM
The title of the thread is a bit confusing now.....  the Baht is weakest now in 2 months ?
Thaiga, the £ on my screen is 48.4 Baht (interbank rate) - whoopee. A big improvement in the last week or two.
Should get 47.5 upwards on that.
GLA
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on June 12, 2013, 06:01:40 PM
Not like you to get confused roger ;)

Great news hope it keeps going ;D   my last 10,000 check was only 39.90 :-[  all the rates are listed below


http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx (http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx)    :cheers
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on June 12, 2013, 06:30:52 PM
For last Friday's ATM withdrawal I got already 40,354470 to the Euro. Keeps getting better steadily. The conversion is done by my bank in Germany. I pay a 1% fee to them and the 180 Baht for the bank here. So I got an effective rate of 39.67 at a withdrawal of 25,000 Baht.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on June 12, 2013, 08:44:52 PM
Hello Thaiga and of course, I may be wrong or at my age - or possibly confused !
However IMHO the Baht is now weaker which is why we are getting more Baht for each £, or Euro, than we were a few weeks ago.
Thai Govt policy is to weaken the Baht to support activity and exports. When they weaken the currency, Thai exports become cheaper in terms of foreign currencies.
I can import a tonne of rice to UK now at say10% less than a week or two ago, because my pounds will buy more rice for which I pay in Baht.
I stand by the comment, that the thread is now about a weaker baht.
We're getting more Baht because it's weaker now.
My brain hurts !

Johnnie, your 39.67 stacks up with the interbank rate my lot show today - 41 thereabouts.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: coolkorat on June 12, 2013, 08:59:41 PM
The latest interbank figure is 48.4788, against a 12 month low of 43.5788 and a 12 month high of 50.23.72. I read this to mean we are not far from a return to a status quo figure of baht50/GBP1 shortly. I find it hard to imagine the baht will weaken further against the £, but remain hopeful. Will we ever see baht70/GBP1 again????
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on June 12, 2013, 09:40:32 PM
There are reports that investors are withdrawing their capital from the emerging markets, seeing better perspectives in the USA again, due to the revaluation of the US$. It's a worldwide movement. Stockmarkets in Asia and South America fell quite a lot today, in Thailand 5%, most since end 2011.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: coolkorat on June 12, 2013, 10:29:49 PM
From a GBP perspective, it feels like a return to a status quo level at B50/£1 - the same is true of the Brazilian Real vs £. The Real is not a trading currency: the Baht value seems to be based on capital flows (currently outwards, as you say JF).

No mention of the Yen. It has been weakening against the GBP and USD, but since late May has seen a return to a stronger position against these and the Baht. Will this strengthening be reflected by other Asian currencies, and is the Baht about to strengthen? The BoT did say it would be a rollercoaster for the foreseeable future......

My (unprofessional) opinion is that the Baht will reach a comfort level and bounce around for the remainder of the year at roughly B50/£1.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on June 13, 2013, 05:06:19 AM
Coolkorat - if it sets around Baht 50 to £1. Lovely. Baht 'weakest' now for 2 months ?
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on June 13, 2013, 11:58:52 AM
Baht 'weakest' now for 2 months ?
better change the heading jf - would be nice if it was - Baht 'weakest' now for 2 years ;D
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on June 13, 2013, 12:33:22 PM
Baht down 0.5% to 31.08 per dollar

Thailand's baht traded 0.4% off a nine-month low and government bonds dropped as overseas investors reduced holdings of the country's assets amid a worsening global economic outlook.

The World Bank cut its 2013 growth forecast for developing countries to 5.1% from a January estimate of 5.5% and lowered China to 7.7% from 8.4%, according to a report on Wednesday.

China is Thailand's biggest export market after purchasing 12% of total shipments in the first four months of the year. International investors sold US$1.1 billion more Thai equities than they bought this month and pulled a net $205 million from bonds, official data showed.

"The weakening currency discourages foreign investors from the nation's stocks and bonds," said Yuji Kameoka, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities Co in Tokyo. "The impact from China's slowdown is quite large on Asia through its exports, while growth concerns are leading to risk-off sentiment."

The baht declined 0.5% to 31.08 per dollar as of 9.22am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 31.19 on Wednesay, the weakest level since Sept 7. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed nine basis points to 7.36%, a level last seen in December 2011.

Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said on Wednesday that fund outflows from Thailand may be a positive factor, helping to weaken the baht. The currency has dropped 8.1% after reaching its strongest level since 1997 in April.

Further weakness in the currency may accelerate foreign sales of Thai equities, Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Plc, the country's biggest stock brokerage, said in a research note on Thursday. The SET Index has lost 6.3% in the last two days and closed yesterday at its lowest since January.

The yield on 3.625% government bonds due June 2023 rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.02%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the highest level for a benchmark note of that maturity since August 2011.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/354900/baht-weakens-bonds-drop-as-funds-cut-holdings-on-growth-outlook)
Title: Central Bank intervenes to stabilize the baht
Post by: Johnnie F. on June 14, 2013, 09:38:23 AM
Central Bank intervenes to stabilize the baht

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) intervened in the foreign exchange market after the baht declined 0.5% to 31.08 to the US dollar on Thursday morning, as the Thai stock market plunged for the third consecutive day.

Central Bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said the baht's recent depreciation was not worrying because other currencies in Southeast Asia had also weakened.

The level of fluctuation of the baht was low when compared to other regional currencies.

"In this case, the BoT has already sold some US dollars to prevent further fluctuation, but we won't move against the market trend," Mr Prasarn said.

Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said the weakening baht would benefit Thai exporters, who have long complained the baht was over valued, but admitted it would probably hurt the import sector.

"I would like the central bank to help stabilise the baht by using our large international reserves as a buffer to ease the impact (on importers) and keep the currency stable and in line with our trading partners and competitors, and not just rely on the US dollar," Mr Kittiratt said.

The Thai currency traded 0.4% off a nine-month low Thursday and government bonds dropped as overseas investors reduced holdings of the country's assets amid a worsening global economic outlook, according to  Bloomberg News.

The World Bank on Wednesday cut its 2013 growth forecast for developing countries to 5.1% from a January estimate of 5.5% and lowered China to 7.7% from 8.4%, the report said.

China is Thailand's biggest export market after purchasing 12% of total shipments in the first four months of the year. The baht declined 0.5% to 31.08 per dollar as of 9.22am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 31.19 on Wednesay, the weakest level since Sept 7. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed nine basis points to 7.36%, a level last seen in December 2011.

International investors sold US$1.1 billion more Thai equities than they bought this month and pulled a net $205 million from bonds, official data showed.

"The weakening currency discourages foreign investors from the nation's stocks and bonds," said Yuji Kameoka, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities Co in Tokyo. "The impact from China's slowdown is quite large on Asia through its exports, while growth concerns are leading to risk-off sentiment."

Mr Prasarn said the Thai stock market plunged more than 70 points on Thursday morning. This was likely due to the sharp sell-off in the bourse as investors expect the US economy to improve.

"The capital outflow is not yet worrying because the amount is not much when compared to the reserves of 180 billion dollars," the BoT chief said. "We cannot tell when the outflow stops because it's an external factor."

The Thai stock market opened in the morning with the plunge by 50.90 points or 3.62% from the close on Wednesday to stand at 1,381.57 point. The index moved in the negative zone for the whole day with the lowest point was at 1,351.95, or dropped 81.52 points.

The SET index rebound in the afternoon to close at 1,403.27 points, down 30.20 points or 2.11 % in total trade of 85.39 billion baht.

The Thai bourse has experienced a big sell-off since Tuesday. The index has dropped by 125.28 points or 8.19% from Monday's close at 1,528.55 points.

Analysts and regulators agree that the plunge caused from external factors, especially the improvement in the US credit rating.

Info Quest reported that the European stock markets in London and France also dropped at their opening in the afternoon (Thai time) due to worry over the cut in global economic growth projection to 2.2% in 2013, slightly lower than earlier projection in January at 2.4%. Developing countries will lead the growth with 5.1%.

However, the World Bank concluded that the economic risks appeared to be diminishing and the growth is more stable than the post-2008 financial crisis which the US caused the global economy into recession.

Bangkok Post

Sounds to me like 1997, where they did the same to the effect of making some Thais with insider knowledge a lot richer, and the Baht later fell even much deeper then.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on June 14, 2013, 10:20:45 AM
If I have understood all the double talk lately, the government wants the Baht to devalue and the BoT wants to hold it up. Have I got that right?
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on June 14, 2013, 10:33:25 AM
They do one first, and then the other. People who have the insider knowledge about when they'll do what, have the chance to trade accordingly.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on June 14, 2013, 12:03:30 PM
Bit more from the nation

America declares war on world currencies

BANGKOK: -- It can now be fully confirmed that we are in the middle of a currency war on a global scale. On April 19, the Thai baht was trading at Bt28.55 against the US dollar. At that point, Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, the Bank of Thailand governor, almost lost his job.

He'd failed to stem the baht's rise. And he had also defended the central bank's interest rate policy as appropriate for the potential growth of the Thai economy.

Prasarn is also reluctant to intervene in the foreign exchange market to weaken the baht. Doing so would create further losses on the central bank's balance sheet when the weak dollar is converted to baht term. Yet the rapid rise of the baht, which breached the Bt28 level, is seen as unacceptable by the government and powerful exporters. The Bank of Thailand has become a punching bag.

But over the past week the central bank has been buying up the baht to prevent its rapid decline.

A sudden shift in sentiment derives from the possibility that the US Federal Reserve might cut back its quantitative easing (QE). Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has hinted that the Fed might pull back some of its QE, now going on at the rate of US$85 billion a month, if there are further signs of the US recovery. Standard and Poor's, the rating agency, has also upgraded the US credit outlook from negative to positive. These signs are good enough to send the Japanese stock market and other emerging markets tumbling.

The Fed launched the currency war through its QE, which started after the collapse of Wall Street and the US stock market in 2008. By printing dollars on a massive scale and holding the interest rate to almost 0 per cent, the Fed has pursued a double-edged policy. First, the cheap dollar helps push up financial assets and prevents the banks from failing. Second, it creates bubbles in other markets and pushes up the value of other currencies and makes their exports less competitive. This is a classic currency war.

The US has given Japan a pat on the back. Japan, which has been in an economic slump for more than 20 years, has been persuaded to adopt QE. It had tried QE eight times in the past, to no avail. "Abenomics" calls for QE 9, which is designed to prop up inflation from 1 per cent to 2 per cent and double the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan to $2.7 trillion. This has helped push up the stock market by more than 70 per cent to the 15,942 level. The yen, which stood at 77 to the dollar in September last year, was also been dragged down to 103-104 recently to boost exports.

But a hint that the Fed might take away some of the punch bowls has spoiled it all. The baht has swung from Bt28.55 against the dollar in April to Bt31 on Wednesday and Bt30.95 yesterday. The yen appreciated from 87 against the dollar last year to peak at 104 before rising to 94 now. The Nikkei index has fallen almost like a stone from 15,942 to 12,582.

The events in Thailand and Japan show that we do not have control over our interest rate, foreign exchange or capital market. As a peripheral country, Thailand's financial markets are subject to the policy of the Fed, which stands high at the centre of global finance.

This brings us to the recent debate on the interest-rate policy between the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na Ranong, in particular, had been applying pressure for the central bank to cut the interest rate by at least one full percentage point to stem capital inflows. He believes that the wide gap in the interest rate differential between the baht (2.75 per cent) and the dollar (0.25 per cent) was the main reason for the capital inflows. Foreign money, which largely went into the Thai bond market, pushed up the baht's value. It also went into the stock market to drive up the SET index to 1,650.

Representatives of the Finance Ministry, the National Economic and Social Development Board and the Federation of Thai Industries came out in chorus to urge a drastic cut in the central bank's rate to stimulate the economy and also to discourage capital inflows.

The central bank has budged by agreeing to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent. It has also introduced four capital control measures in case of further rapid rises in the baht.

But the sudden outflow of capital, which has sent the Thai stock marketing tumbling and the baht on a sliding path, shows that the interest rate has little - or virtually no influence - over capital inflow. When the financial centre - the Fed in this case - coughs, all of the world's financial markets recoil for fear of catching a cold.

We are in the middle of the currency war. But few have a clue as to what actually is happening. By playing the game of the Fed, we'll all lose our shirts soon.

the nation
Title: Re: Th baht predicted to fluctuate around 30.40-30.80 baht per US dollar
Post by: thaiga on June 17, 2013, 05:00:31 PM
Thai baht predicted to fluctuate around 30.40-30.80 baht per US dollar this week
BANGKOK, 17 June 2013 (NNT)
Kasikorn Research Center has forecast that the baht will move in the range of around 30.40-30.80 baht per US dollar this week as the influx of foreign currencies remains unstable.

According to Kasikorn Research Center, the direction of Thai baht this week would also depend on results of the U.S. Central Bank’s meeting expected to be concluded on Wednesday.

The U.S. fiscal policy will have a direct impact on foreign capital flows, which also determine the value of the Thai currency.

KResearch said important US economic factors that should be monitored are the property business index, and consumer and economic indexes. Another external factor that should also be monitored is the G-8 meeting

Title: Re: Baht drops, investors await Fed signal
Post by: thaiga on June 19, 2013, 12:42:24 PM
Thailand's baht fell to within 0.4% of a nine-month low and bonds dropped as investors waited for a signal from the US Federal Reserve on the future of its stimulus program that has spurred fund flows to emerging markets.

Fed Chairman Ben S Bernanke will speak to reporters at the end of the monetary authority's two-day meeting on Wednesday. Global investors have pulled US$2.6 billion from Thai bonds and equities since May 22, when Bernanke said $85 billion a month of debt purchases could be reduced if there is a sustained improvement in the US jobs market. The benchmark SET Index of shares lost 12% during the same period.

"Investors don't want to take positions on risky assets at this moment," said Pareena Phuangsiri, a Bangkok-based analyst at Kasikornbank Plc. "Domestically, sentiment is not so good either with the SET Index falling. Foreign selling of bonds and stocks also weigh on the baht."

The baht fell 0.5% to 31 per dollar as of 8.55am in Bangkok and touched 31.08 earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It reached 31.19 on June 12, the weakest level since Sept 7, and has lost 1.4% since June 14. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7.9%.

The yield on the 3.625% government bonds due June 2023 climbed two basis points to 3.83%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Baht-denominated debt has declined 1.4% this month, less than a 3.3% drop for Indonesian notes and a 1.9% slide for the Philippines, indexes compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc show.

The government sees no need to implement measures to stem outflows, Somchai Sujjapongse, director-general of the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office, said on June 14, adding that money will eventually flow back.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/355845/baht-bonds-drop-as-investors-wait-for-fed-stimulus-signal)

Title: Re: BoT to let Thai baht move freely
Post by: thaiga on June 20, 2013, 06:06:34 PM
The rapid outflow of foreign capital has yet to end but the Bank of Thailand will allow the baht to move freely in line with the money market mechanism, BoT deputy governor for monetary stability Pongpen Ruengvirayudh said on Thursday.

Ms Pongpen was responding to the announcement the US Federal Reserve  would gradually slowdown its quantitative easing measure (QE) later this year and would end it in mid-2014, if the US economy improves.

She said the US Fed’s declaration made its policy clear to the international community, different from its previous uncertain stance on the QE measure.

As a result, it was probable that foreign capital investment earlier placed in the emerging markets, including Thailand, would continue to flow out, she said. This would depend on the economic indicators in the US.

The current capital outflow was not a cause of concern when compared to the recent capital influx and the level of Thailand’s foreign reserves, the deputy BoT chief said.

Ms Pongpen admitted capital outflow would further weaken the value of the Thai currency, but the central bank would allow the baht to move in line with the market mechanism, she said.

If the baht's value drops too rapidly, the central bank would oversee it to prevent a heavy fluctuation in the exchange rate, she said.

A similar situation prevailed with other currencies in the Asian region, and therefore investors dealing with foreign exchange should ensure they have risk management measures in place.

The baht closed at 30.61 baht to the US dollar on Wednesday, but it opened weaker to stand at 31.40 baht on Thursday morning.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/356096/capital-outflow-not-a-problem-says-bank-of-thailand)

Title: Re: Baht rises to 1-week high
Post by: thaiga on July 11, 2013, 01:02:39 PM
Thailand's baht rose to a one-week high and bonds gained after US Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke said the United States economy will continue to need monetary stimulus, easing concerns about outflows from emerging markets.

Bernanke said on Wednesday that "highly accommodative" policy will be needed for the "foreseeable future," driving up exchange rates and stocks across Asia. The Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% on Wednesday, while cutting estimates for 2013 economic growth and exports.

"With Bernanke's comments, sentiment toward emerging markets improved,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and foreign-exchange strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. "However, the basic trend has not turned around yet."

The baht climbed 0.6% to 31.10 per US dollar as of 8.56am in Bangkok and reached 31.04 earlier, the strongest level since July 3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, jumped 37 basis points, or 0.37 percentage point, to 7.65%.

Gross domestic product may increase less than 5% this year, the central bank said on Wednesday. New forecasts for the economy and export growth will be released on July 19. The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee cut borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point in May after the baht reached a 16-year high of 28.56 per dollar in April.

'Hot Money'

"We think the main reason the MPC cut in May was the pressure from hot money inflows," Tim Condon, head of Asian research at ING Groep NV in Singapore, wrote in a research report on Thursday. "With the panic subsiding, we think the hot money will return and the government will counter with capital controls rather than interest rates." ING predicts the baht will appreciate to 29 per dollar by year-end.

The yield on the 3.625% government bonds due June 2023 dropped one basis point to 3.72%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Thai local-currency sovereign notes have posted a loss of 0.7% over the past month as Bernanke signaled a possible end to monetary stimulus, an index compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc shows.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/359366/baht-rises-to-1-week-high-bonds-gain-as-outflow-concern-quelled)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: coolkorat on July 11, 2013, 04:21:11 PM
Coolkorat - if it sets around Baht 50 to £1. Lovely. Baht 'weakest' now for 2 months ?


My prediction shows what I know about currencies! According to XE (http://www.xe.com/ (http://www.xe.com/) - they have a great app also) baht/GBP is trading at Ƀ46.9035 to £1 - still some way off the GBP low of Ƀ43.5788.

Will there be more pressure for intervention by BoT? Is talk of an Egypt-style intervention a mechanism to create market uncertainty?
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on July 11, 2013, 05:04:18 PM
My prediction shows what I know about currencies!


well my prediction was 60 bht - may have been more of a wish - we can live in hope.

dollar tumbles     uk.reuters.com (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/11/uk-markets-global-idUKBRE87514J20130711)

The dollar tumbled 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies while the euro roared to a three-week high of $1.32085 at one stage, though it was back at $1.3038 by 0820 BST.
Title: Re: Thailand's baht advanced the most in a week
Post by: thaiga on July 18, 2013, 12:47:55 PM
Baht rises as Bernanke eases concern

Thailand's baht advanced the most in a week after US Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke allayed concern the United States plans to curb stimulus that has fueled demand for emerging-market assets. Bonds were little changed.

Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday that the Fed's asset purchases "are by no means on a preset course" and could even be expanded should economic conditions warrant.

The baht touched a two-week high after exchange data showed foreign investors bought more Thai equities than they sold on each of the last six days, boosting their holdings by US$265 million in the longest run of net purchases in almost two months.

"Bernanke's comments were positive for emerging-market assets," said Tsutomu Soma, manager of Rakuten Securities Inc’s fixed-income business unit in Tokyo. "The market's focus has shifted to the situation in the US and the baht will continue to move on that factor. That baht saw a quite sharp, one-way decline and that situation will probably stabilise."

The currency appreciated 0.4%, the most since July 11, to 30.97 per dollar as of 8.31am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 30.90, the strongest level since July 2. The baht has retreated 7.8% from an April level of 28.56 that was the strongest since 1997.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 6.98%.

Bond Inflows

Global funds purchased $192 million more debt than they sold this month through yesterday after selling a net $1.48 billion in May and June, Thai Bond Market Association data show.

The Thai government will continue to reduce the budget deficit each year even as it plans to invest 2 trillion baht ($65 billion) on infrastructure over the next seven years, Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong told reporters in Bangkok on July 16.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 was little changed at 3.69%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Thai bonds handed investors a return of 0.3% this month through on Wednesday, a performance second only to the Philippines among Asia's 10 biggest economies excluding Japan, HSBC Holdings Plc indexes show.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/360446/baht-rises-as-bernanke-eases-tapering-concern-thai-bonds-steady)
Title: Baht drops on China slowdown
Post by: Johnnie F. on July 26, 2013, 11:41:17 AM
And down it goes again!


Baht drops on China slowdown

Thailand's baht dropped by the most in two weeks and bonds fell as a slowdown in China dimmed regional growth prospects and investors waited for United States jobs data for clues on whether the United States Federal Reserve will cut stimulus.

Manufacturing declined by more than estimated in China, Thailand's biggest export market, and home sales in the US rose to a five-year high, according to reports yesterday. The number of people in the world’s largest economy continuing to claim jobless benefits decreased by 89,000 in the week to July 13, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before data due Thursday, which may bolster the case for the Fed to reduce bond buying that has boosted fund flows to Asia.

"Weakening growth prospects in Asia on the weak China PMI yesterday" weighed on regional currencies, said Wee-Khoon Chong, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Societe Generale SA. "All eyes will be on claims data later today."

The baht declined 0.4%, the most since July 8, to 31.07 per US dollar as of 8.37am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 31.10 earlier, the weakest level since July 19. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.16%.

A Purchasing Managers Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics on Wednesday showed a preliminary reading for Chinese factory output of 47.7 in July, compared with a forecast of 48.2. China took 12% of Thai exports in the first five months of 2013, official data show.

Thai overseas sales rose 1.5% in June from a year earlier after a 5.3 percent drop the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey before customs data due Friday.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 increased one basis point to 3.86%, the highest level since June 26, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bangkok Post (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/361468/baht-drops-on-china-slowdown-as-market-waits-for-fed-clues)

41.315 to the Euro already!
Title: Re: The baht is headed for a fourth monthly drop
Post by: thaiga on July 31, 2013, 12:38:37 PM
Baht, bonds fall on growth risk

The baht is headed for a fourth monthly drop - its longest losing streak since 2008 - on concern an economic slowdown in China will hurt the country's exports.

A Bank of Thailand report on Wednesday will show the nation posted a current-account deficit for a third month in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Ten-year government bonds dropped amid speculation the US Federal Reserve will give further clues today to the timing of reductions in monetary stimulus that has boosted demand for emerging-market assets.

"The deterioration in the current-account balance hurts sentiment and with China's slowdown, the export outlook won't be bright either," said Tsutomu Soma, a manager of Rakuten Securities Inc's fixed-income business unit department in Tokyo. "Still, the biggest attention is paid to the outlook for the Fed’s reduction in stimulus."

The baht depreciated 1% this month and 0.3% on Wednesday to 31.37 per United States dollar as of 9.09am in Bangkok, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That is its weakest level for three weeks. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, slumped 191 basis points from the end of June and 16 basis points on Wednesday to 6.13%.

The country's current-account deficit totalled $785 million last month after a $1.05 billion of shortfall the previous month, according to the survey before data due to be published at 2.30pm. A customs report on July 26 showed exports decreased 3.4% in June after a 5.3% drop in May. Shipments to China, Thailand's biggest export market, plunged 17%.

Slowing Growth

The economy probably slowed in the second quarter from the preceding period on weak exports and cooling local demand, Ekniti Nitithanprapas, deputy director-general of the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office, said on July 29.

China’s Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing was 49.8 for July, lower than the mark of 50 which divides expansion and contraction, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before data due Aug 1.

The Fed, which has indicated asset purchases could be trimmed should risks to the US economy abate, will probably keep its key rate at 0.25% in an announcement after the Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 climbed 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point, to 3.96% this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rate, which increased two basis points Wednesday, is the highest since June 24.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/362335/baht-bonds-fall-in-month-on-growth-risk-fed-outlook)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 08, 2013, 12:19:10 PM
Thai Baht Jumps as China Data Ease Slowdown Concerns; Bonds Gain

Thailand’s baht rose the most in four weeks after data showed exports and imports rebounded in China, the Southeast Asian nation’s largest overseas market. Government bonds advanced for a fourth day.

The currency sank to a one-month low yesterday as parliament began debating an amnesty bill for political prisoners and those facing charges related to government protests after former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was toppled in a 2006 coup. China’s overseas sales grew 5.1 percent in July, after a 3.1 percent drop the previous month, and imports climbed 11 percent, the government reported today.

“With lingering concern about China’s slowdown, people in the market reacted quickly to the strong data today,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and foreign-exchange strategist at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Domestically, there’s political concern in Thailand and investors may want to stay on the sidelines for a while.”

The baht advanced 0.4 percent, the most since July 11, to 31.32 per dollar as of 11:07 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 31.49 yesterday, the weakest level since July 8. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 6.28 percent.

China accounted for 11 percent of Thailand’s exports in the first half of 2013, official data show. Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on July 29 that total shipments during the period were lower than expected and there should be an improvement in the July-December period.

The yield on the 3.625 percent sovereign bonds due June 2023 declined three basis points to a one-week low of 3.94 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-08/thai-baht-jumps-as-china-data-ease-slowdown-concerns-bonds-gain.html)

But the Euro is still at 41.764 to the Baht now. Hope it stays that way or even gets stronger.
Title: Re: BoT intervened to stabilise baht in Aug
Post by: thaiga on August 17, 2013, 12:51:00 AM
The Bank of Thailand reported that foreign reserves as of Aug 9 totalled US$172.2 billion, an increase of $900 million from the previous week, with the central bank buying dollars from the spot market to keep the baht from fluctuating too sharply.

The net forward position, reflecting the central bank's status on foreign currency purchases in the futures market, totalled $23.7 billion, up $200 million from the previous week, putting net foreign reserves at $195.9 billion, it said.

Reserves increased slightly because the BoT had to intervene in the money market to curb the baht's fluctuation by purchasing US dollars on the spot market, the central bank said.

Cash flow from the private sector and financial institution deposits at the central bank totalled 1.34 trillion baht, slightly down from 1.37 trillion baht reported in the previous week. Current cash flow and liquidity is sufficient for accommodating spending demand in the system, the bank said.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/364966/foreign-reserves-top-us-172-billion-bot-reports)
Title: Re: Thai baht remains weak this week
Post by: thaiga on August 19, 2013, 03:13:53 PM
KRC says Thai baht remains weak this week

BANGKOK, 19 August 2013 (NNT)-Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) has forecast that the baht will fluctuate in the range of 31.10 – 31.50 baht per US dollar this week.

According to the KRC, domestic factors that could affect the currency this week include the GDP figure in the second quarter of this year, which is expected to be released within this week, and the monetary policy expected to be concluded by the Monetary Policy Committee this Wednesday.

Other factors to be considered include the U.S. unemployment rate, property sale index in that country, the outcomes of the Federal Reserve System’s meeting at the end of last month, as well as the PMI Indexes from various nations. However, the KRC said the Thai baht has so far remained weak given the higher global price of gold bar and the rigorous sales of US currency.

NNT (http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5608190010001)

Buying Rates @ bangkokbank now UK pound = 48.22  euro = 41.18

Title: Re: Weak baht not a problem
Post by: thaiga on August 20, 2013, 03:32:50 PM
Prasarn: Weak baht not a problem

The weakening baht is not a cause for concern because the country’s economic fundamentals are strong, Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on Tuesday.

Earlier today, the baht weakened to stand at 31.67 baht to the US dollar, the lowest level in one year, since July 2012.

Mr Prasarn admitted that he did not really know what had caused the value of the baht to weaken sharply.

It could be a result of reports about lower than expected economic growth in the second quarter of the year by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) on Monday, he said.

The central bank chief insisted that Thailand is not at risk of facing an economic crisis similar to that in Indonesia, because macroeconomic policy in the kingdom is reliable and the country does not have a problem with current account deficits, as seen in Indonesia.

Analysts said the baht value was squeezed by second quarter economic growth figures, which were much lower than expected.

The NESDB on Monday reported that the economy in the second quarter grew at a less-than-expected 2.8% year-on-year.

The state think-tank lowered its growth projection for 2013 to between 3.8% and 4.3% from the previous prediction of between 4.2% and 5.2%, due to a slower than expected global economic recovery, an end to mobilsation from government stimulus measures, a delay in the government's investment plans and continuing political conflict.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/365531/bot-governor-brushes-off-weak-baht-concerns)

Buying Rates @ bangkokbank now UK pound = 48.81   Euro = 41.65
Title: Re: Weak baht not a problem
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 20, 2013, 04:01:43 PM
Mr Prasarn admitted that he did not really know what had caused the value of the baht to weaken sharply.


Bloomberg's got an answer for him:


Capital Flows Back to U.S. as Markets Slump Across Asia

Asia’s role as the world’s growth engine is waning as economies across the region weaken and investors pull out billions of dollars.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low today, Thailand is in recession and Indonesia’s widest current-account deficit pushed the rupiah to the lowest level since 2009. Chinese banks’ bad loans are rising and economists forecast Malaysia will post its second straight quarter of sub-5 percent growth this week.

The clouds forming in Asia as liquidity tightens and China’s slowdown curbs demand for commodities and goods are fueling a selloff of emerging-market stocks, reversing a flow of money into the region in favor of nascent recoveries in the U.S. and Europe. Emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia have raised borrowing costs in 2013 to try to aid their currencies as the prospect of reduced U.S. monetary stimulus curbs demand for assets in developing nations.

“The eye of the storm is directly above emerging markets now, two years after it hovered over Europe and four years after it hit the U.S.,” said Stephen Jen, co-founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London and former head of foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley. “This could be serious for Asia.”

Of the $155.6 billion investors poured into developed-market equity exchange-traded products in the first seven months this year, North American funds received $102.4 billion or 65.8 percent, according to BlackRock Investment Institute. Japan attracted a record $28 billion, while Europe-focused funds got $4.3 billion. In contrast, $7.6 billion flowed out of emerging-market funds.

Swinging Back

“The pendulum is swinging back in favor of the advanced countries,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees about $130 billion. “It’s one of these things that happens once a decade or so when you see a turn in relative performance. We’ve entered a tougher, more difficult period” for Asia.

The IMF in July cut its forecast for growth this year in developing Asia by 0.3 percentage point to 6.9 percent.

In the past three months the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen 7.7 percent, compared with a 1.2 percent decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and a 1.6 percent drop in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Signs of a stronger U.S. economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to begin paring its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases as soon as next month.

Indonesia’s benchmark equity index has slumped more than 10 percent in the past two days, while India’s has fallen about 3 percent and Thailand is down more than 6 percent.

Indian policy makers led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are battling to stem the rupee’s plunge, attract capital flows to bridge a record current account deficit and revive growth. The currency has weakened about 28 percent versus the dollar in the past two years, reviving memories of the early 1990s crisis, when the government received an International Monetary Fund loan as foreign reserves waned.

Indian Problems

“It seems now the pain is going to be in the emerging markets,” said Nitin Mathur, an analyst in Mumbai at Espirito Santo Investment Bank who expects sectors with higher valuations such as consumer goods to suffer the biggest declines. “The problems in India are not temporary blips. The problems are much more serious which will take a lot of effort to get resolved.”

In Thailand, the economy entered recession last quarter for the first time since the global financial crisis. Toyota Motor Corp. said last month industrywide car sales in Thailand will fall 9.5 percent this year. The government cut its 2013 growth forecast yesterday as exports cooled and local demand weakened, with higher household debt restricting scope for monetary easing.

Thai Credit

Thailand’s private-sector credit as a share of gross domestic product has “increased significantly” in recent years raising concern about financial stability, Krystal Tan, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Singapore, said in a Bloomberg Brief commentary.

Taiwan last week cut its 2013 growth and exports forecasts and said the global outlook for the second half is worse than in May. The island’s export orders probably fell for a sixth month in July, a Bloomberg survey showed before data due today.

“We are seeing a turning point,” said Freya Beamish, Hong Kong-based economist with Lombard Street Research, who says China’s competitiveness has been hurt by labor costs that are 30 percent too high. “China’s seeing flat to falling growth on our estimates so the region’s clouds are already here.”

Sentiment is also being subdued by the prospect of a decline in U.S. stimulus, money that often finds its way to export-based countries in payment for goods.

Investors will be looking for clues on how quickly the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases when the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting minutes are released on Aug. 21.

Flow Reversing

The $3.9 trillion of cash that flowed into emerging markets over the past four years has started to reverse since Chairman Ben S. Bernanke talked about a tapering in quantitative easing this year. The slowdown in Fed bond buying will probably begin next month, according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Aug. 9-13.

The JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index has declined 2.4 percent since Bernanke’s June 19 tapering comment. The Bloomberg Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback against 10 major currencies, is almost unchanged over the same period.

“The emerging Asia story is crumbling and dollar is once again the king,” said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. in Mumbai.

India’s moves to tighten cash supply, restrict currency derivatives and curb gold imports since July failed to arrest the rupee’s slump to a record low of 64.12 per dollar today. UBS AG says a drop in the currency to 70 is possible.

The deficit widened to an unprecedented 4.8 percent of GDP in the year ended March 31. The government plans to narrow the gap to 3.7 percent, or $70 billion, this year, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said Aug. 12.

Policy Gap

India’s slump is worse than elsewhere in Asia because the country has failed to carry out long-overdue structural changes to the economy, said Pan at Kotak Mahindra Bank.

“In India, we have great policies on paper but the gap between the what’s on paper and the implementation is unduly large,” R.C. Bhargava, chairman of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., the nation’s biggest carmaker by volume, said in an interview. “If we just implement what’s already there, we can get back on track in the next two to three years.”

Richard Jerram, chief economist at Bank of Singapore Ltd., says the market declines reflect overly ambitious expectations rather than fundamental weakness in the economies.

“There’s a good structural story based on the underlying domestic demand,” said Jerram, who has analyzed Asian economies for two decades. “What you see at the moment is reaction from expectations being unrealistically positive maybe 12 months ago, to now becoming more realistic.”

Japan Rising

One bright spot is Japan, which has seen its economy bounce back on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s fiscal and monetary stimulus. The Topix stocks index has risen 32 percent this year.

Abe has yet to show that he can sustain the recovery by restructuring company and labor laws and taming the nation’s debt, which topped 1 quadrillion yen ($10 trillion) in June.

“Asia still has potential in the next three years or more, but in the shorter term, momentum for business is slowing down,” said Shuichi Hirukawa, senior fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “Investors may become more cautious.”

China’s economy last quarter extended the longest streak of expansion below 8 percent in at least two decades, curbing earnings at companies such as Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. Still, there are signs of improvement. Industrial output rose more than economists estimated in July, after larger-than-forecast rebounds in exports and imports and improvement in gauges of manufacturing and service industries.

China Change

China is making efforts to bolster confidence. Overall liquidity in China is ample as banks channel more funds to agriculture and small businesses in the world’s second-largest economy, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on state broadcaster China Central Television yesterday.

“Some Asian countries, especially India, have their own significant domestic challenges,” said Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist who coined the term BRIC in 2001 to describe Brazil, Russia, India and China. “But China is slowing primarily to improve its growth model and at 7-7.5 percent annual growth is still delivering $1 trillion nominal GDP. And Japan, still Asia’s No. 2 economy, is looking better than it has done for a very long time.”

The slowdown in economies such as Indonesia and Thailand is part of a “very, very global” weakness, World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu told reporters in New Delhi yesterday.

‘So Slow’

The U.S. recovery “was so slow that even the slightest pick up is looking like a pick up,” Basu said. “I don’t think the Asian situation is any worse. In fact, if anything, Asia is probably better off than the rest of the world.”

That may not help markets in Asia as money continues to flow back to Europe and the U.S., said Oliver at AMP Capital. Norway may say today its economy expanded in the second quarter after a contraction in the previous three months, a survey showed. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will release a report on U.S. economic activity for July.

“Asia will still be a stronger part of the world than the U.S. or Europe but compared to people’s expectations Asia is likely to come in a little bit lower than expected,” he said.

The IMF in July forecast global growth of 3.1 percent and projected advanced economies would expand 1.2 percent this year.

Stocks Opportunity

“We see this drop as an opportunity to buy selectively those stocks that have been overpriced” such as banks and consumer shares, Kiekie Boenawan, Jakarta-based head of investment at PT Schroder Investment Management Indonesia, wrote in an e-mail yesterday.

Investors will be scanning data from Chinese factories to Malaysian growth this week for further signs of weakness.

An Aug. 22 flash reading for China on a manufacturing purchasing managers’ index by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics is expected to come in at 48.1 for August, from 47.7 in July, according to the median economist estimate compiled by Bloomberg. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Malaysia’s central bank on Aug. 21 may post data showing 4.7 percent economic growth in the second quarter from a year earlier, after rising 4.1 percent in the January-March period, its slowest rate since September 2009, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Brazil’s Real

Slumping currencies and inflation risks in emerging markets are adding to pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. Brazil increased its benchmark rate this year more than any major economy to prevent higher prices from slowing consumption and investments. The real weakened beyond 2.4 per dollar for the first time in four years yesterday.

Higher rates in turn would hit consumers in countries where cheap mortgages and easy credit have fueled housing booms.

“Southeast Asian consumers have taken on much higher debt in the last few years,” Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc analyst Sanjay Mathur wrote in a July 18 report. He said the largest increase was in Malaysia, where household debt increased by 20 percent of GDP between 2008 and 2012.

There’s a feeling that “the rest of the world’s getting a bit better and Asean’s had its sort of burst of credit-enhanced growth,” said Edward Teather, an economist at UBS AG who covers Southeast Asian markets from Singapore. “It’s raining already.”

Businessweek.com (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-19/clouds-gather-over-asian-economies-as-capital-flows-back-to-u-dot-s)

Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 22, 2013, 10:20:20 AM
Baht Falls to Three-Year Low on Fed Minutes, Growth Concern

Thailand’s baht fell to the weakest level since August 2010 after Federal Reserve minutes showed officials support a cut in stimulus this year if the U.S. economy improves.

The baht slipped beyond 32 per dollar for the first time since July 2012 as official data showed global funds sold $582 million more Thai bonds than they bought this month through yesterday and pulled a net 30.6 billion baht ($954 million) from equities. A government report this week showed Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy entered a recession for the first time since 2009.

Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/baht-falls-to-three-year-low-on-fed-minutes-growth-concern.html) reports. The Euro is up at 42.819 right now. Hope it keeps rising. Inflation in Thailand and the overvalued Baht had made life for many expats difficult. Most people weren't able to support their family to the extent anymore, those had gotten used to. While those also suffered from rising prices, the allowances from their foreign son-in-laws got cut due to them not having so much money left over from their own direct needs.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on August 22, 2013, 10:38:04 AM
Sterling is quoted at £1 to THB50.11 today.
Title: Baht fall cheers exporters
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 23, 2013, 12:09:04 PM
Baht fall cheers exporters

Exporters and tourism businesses have welcomed the weakening of the baht, hoping it will help the country reach its export-growth target. However, importers who have not locked in advance contracts could be hurt.

Yesterday the baht weakened to 32 per US dollar for the first time since August 2010 as official data showed global funds sold US$582 million (Bt18.6 billion) more Thai bonds than they bought this month through yesterday and pulled out a net Bt30.6 billion ($954 million) from equities. A government report this week showed that Southeast Asia's second-largest economy entered a recession for the first time since 2009.

Tak Bunnag, executive vice president of Bank of Ayudhya's treasury group, said the weakening of the baht was partly due to fundamentals of the Thai economy, to which investors gave 30-per-cent weight when deciding where to put their money.

Estimates of growth in Thailand's gross domestic product were lowered on Monday to 3.8-4.2 per cent after growth in the second quarter was slower than in the first.

He said the economies of most Asian countries were slowing along with China's, with a consequent depreciation of their currencies.

Year to date, the baht has depreciated by 4.8 per cent against the dollar. Indonesia's rupiah has weakened by 12.6 per cent and India's rupee has seen the largest decline at 19.6 per cent.

Tak said investors had reallocated their funds ahead of the tapering of the United States' quantitative-easing programme. If the US Federal Reserve ends QE, the baht might not drop much, and might even begin strengthening again.

Markets expect the Fed to reduce its bond purchases next month.

Kampol Adireksombat, senior economist at Tisco Securities, said the baht was depreciating too much as foreign investors were worried about emerging-market economies. Some current accounts are in deficits.

The baht weakened 0.75 per cent to 32.07 per dollar yesterday morning.

"The baht is overshooting because of foreigners' concern over emerging countries' current-account deficits. Indonesia's is in a deficit of 3-4 per cent of its GDP. Thailand's current account was in a slight deficit in the first half of this year," Kampol said.

According to the National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailand had a current-account deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP in the second quarter. In the first half, the current account was in a deficit of 1.9 per cent of GDP.

Kampol expects the Thai economy, particularly exports, to recover in the latter half of this year, and that could reduce the current-account deficit to no more than 1 per cent of GDP, or even put it into a slight surplus.

He also expects the baht to appreciate to about 31.5 per dollar late in the year.

Meanwhile, Deputy Commerce Minister Niwatthumrong Boonsongpaisan said the government will not seek Bank of Thailand's in the exchange rate, although the baht's rapid depreciation has affected some traders.

He said the ministry and involved agencies will revise the export target for this year next month.

Drive export growth

Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the weaker baht should have a positive impact on the trading sector overall. However, it would affect some sectors that rely on imports, particularly fuel, chemical fertiliser, wheat flour and machinery.

"The concern is about a rapid depreciation or appreciation in a short period that could affect traders' confidence about the baht's fluctuation," he said.

Pornsilp said the baht's movement should also change in accordance with those of trading competitors in the region. So far, the baht, the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso are weakening, while other currencies such as the Chinese yuan and Vietnamese dong have not depreciated. This could reduce traders' and investors' confidence in the Thai economy.

Despite the baht's depreciation, he said exports would still face difficulty achieving this year's growth target of 5-7 per cent. The sluggish global economy will likely keep export growth down to only 3 per cent.

In addition, because of the sudden weakening of the baht, some importers who have not fixed exchange rates in advance could be seriously hurt.

For instance, some machinery importers will need to pay more if they ordered goods while the baht was around 30 against the greenback.

Veerachai Chaochankit, chairman of the Agricultural Machinery Club under the Federation of Thai Industries, said about 10 per cent of agricultural machinery was imported from overseas and would be affected by the baht's depreciation. However, this impact should be minimal as most traders had advance contracts that were normally flexible.

Veerachai said traders favoured stable currencies rather than those that fluctuated rapidly in a short time.

Tourist boom

Pornthip Hirunkate, vice president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, said the tourism industry still looked optimistic. The weaker baht would give foreign tourists more spending power and back the Kingdom's reputation as a value-for-money destination. This would help spur the sector's performance in the approaching high season.

However, outbound tour agencies will feel somewhat of a pinch because Thai tourists will have to pay more, she said.

Overall, she remains confident that the industry can adjust to the situation. The bitter experience from the 1997 financial crisis and other, more recent serious troubles have made operators even stronger and more flexible.

She said financial experts should be allowed to handle the exchange-rate issue. The baht is weakening on the same trend as elsewhere in Asia. The government should not interfere with its value because that would distort the market landscape and create problems in the future.

The Nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-fall-cheers-exporters-30213264.html)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 27, 2013, 10:26:45 AM
Baht Falls Toward Three-Year Low on Growth Concern; Bonds Drop

Thailand’s baht fell toward a three-year low and government bonds declined after a surprise drop in exports added to concern Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy will struggle to emerge from a recession this quarter.

Overseas sales decreased 1.5 percent in July, the third decline in a row and less than the 0.8 percent gain forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, a report showed yesterday. The country will post a current-account deficit of $550 million in July, according to another Bloomberg survey before data due Aug. 30, while figures released last week showed the nation entered a recession for the first time since 2009.

“The trade data boosted concern about the possibility of economic recovery in the third quarter,” said Tohru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. in Tokyo. “In addition, the nation has been seeing a deficit in the current-account balance, putting downward pressure on the baht for a while.”

The baht dropped 0.5 percent to 32.09 per dollar as of 8:45 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency touched 32.17 on Aug. 22, the weakest level since Aug. 5, 2010, and has lost 3.2 percent this quarter. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 7.13 percent.

Gross domestic product decreased 0.3 percent in the three months through June from the previous quarter, when it contracted 1.7 percent, the National Economic and Social Development Board said Aug. 19. The agency cut its 2013 expansion forecast to between 3.8 percent and 4.3 percent from an earlier estimate of 4.2 percent to 5.2 percent.

Global funds sold $1.2 billion more Thai bonds than they bought this month through yesterday and pulled a net $1.1 billion from equities, official data show.

The yield on the 3.625 percent sovereign notes due June 2023 rose four basis points to 4.19 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-27/baht-falls-toward-three-year-low-on-growth-concern-bonds-drop.html)

Already at 43.008 against the Euro. I'm starting to feel better!  :)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on August 27, 2013, 10:31:09 AM
49.90 against Sterling at the moment.
Title: Thailand Cuts Interest Rates
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 27, 2013, 05:00:24 PM
Thailand Cuts Interest Rates

By: DailyForex.com

Thailand’s central bank voted unanimously yesterday to cut its 2.75% base rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday in an attempt to stem a sharp rise in the baht. Thailand is joining other Asian countries in setting a currency-devaluing precedent that may leave other emerging economies with little choice but to follow suit.

A measure of economic easing in the US and austerity in Europe has sent foreign investors to Asia seeking better returns and pumping up the value of Thailand’s baht, which in April hit its strongest level against the dollar since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

What does this mean for Thailand?

This influx of foreign funds is causing big problems for Thailand, with exporters worried that their goods will become too expensive. Japanese President Shinzo Abe’s has already put in to place moves to devalue the yen which have already made things difficult for his Asian neighbors. Last week the Thai government cut its export growth forecast from 11% to 7.6% for 2013 and Thailand’s finance minister has been publicly piling pressure on the bank’s central governor to take further actions.

The Bank of Thailand is also considering additional controls, including fees on capital gains made by foreign bond holders and minimum holding periods for foreign purchasers, to discourage the flow of foreign money coming in to Thailand.
Should Thailand succeed in devaluing the baht the foreign capital that has been flowing into the country may go elsewhere–the Philippines, for example, or South Korea which has already been damaged by Japan’s currency devaluation. China, with its devalued currency may also end up the benefactor of much of the foreign funds.

Daily Forex (http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-news/2013/08/Thailand-Cuts-Interest-Rates/23387)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: coolkorat on August 28, 2013, 04:45:05 AM
The baht is now showing at its weakest for 12 months vs USD and Euro, and very close vs GBP.
Title: Re: Thailand’s baht was set for its fourth weekly decline
Post by: thaiga on September 06, 2013, 10:50:11 AM
Thai baht, bonds decline on US data

Thailand’s baht was set for its fourth weekly decline, the longest losing streak in three months, and bonds fell before US jobs data that may influence expectations for when the Federal Reserve will rein in stimulus.

The baht dropped to a three-year low ahead of data today that may show US employers added 180,000 jobs in August after an increase of 162,000 the previous month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Global investors sold US$31 million more Thai equities than they bought this week through yesterday, exchange data show, amid concern the US is moving closer to a military strike against Syria.

“The biggest focus in the market now is the US employment data to assess the outlook for the Fed’s reduction in stimulus,” said Hideki Hayashi, a researcher at the Japan Center for Economic Research in Tokyo. “Emerging-market currencies and assets are under downward pressure and such severe conditions will probably continue for a while. Syria tensions are adding to weak sentiment.”

The baht lost 0.7 percent this week and 0.2 percent today to 32.37 per dollar as of 8.38am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency touched 32.41 earlier, the weakest level since July 2010.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed 32 basis points, or 0.32 percentage point, to 7.53 percent this week. The gauge was little changed today.

The US Fed will start to slow its $85 billion a month of bond purchases at its Sept 17-18 meeting, according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month. The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 10-7 this week in favour of a resolution authorising limited action against Syria.

The yield on Thailand’s 3.625 percent sovereign bonds due June 2023 rose 10 basis points from a week ago and two basis points today to 4.42 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That is the highest level for a benchmark 10-year note since November 2009.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/368327/baht-set-for-its-fourth-weekly-decline-bonds-fall-on-syria-tensions)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on September 06, 2013, 11:07:36 AM
50.51 today against the Pound Sterling.
Title: Re: Baht gains to three-week high
Post by: thaiga on September 12, 2013, 11:25:50 AM
The baht climbed to a three-week high and bonds rose as overseas investors added to their holdings of the country's assets on optimism China's economy is gaining traction.

The baht advanced for a fifth day on Thursday, the longest winning streak since January, after global funds boosted holdings of Thai stocks by more than US$100 million on each of the last two days, the biggest net purchases since June 28.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday that Asia's largest economy can achieve its main targets this year, bolstering the outlook for Thai exports to its biggest market.

"Risk sentiment is improving and funds are flowing into the nation, supporting the baht," said Tohru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc in Tokyo. "But I see this as a temporary rally in a weak market environment."

The baht appreciated 0.8% to 31.74 per dollar as of 9.07am in Bangkok, the strongest level since Aug 21 and the biggest gain in almost three weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 16 basis points to 7.59%.

Foreigners turned net buyers of Thai debt on Wednesday for the first time in a week, purchasing 7.5 billion baht, the most since July 30, according to the Thai Bond Market Association.

China's export growth accelerated to 7.2% in August from 5.1% the previous month and industrial production grew 10.4% following a gain of 9.7%, official reports showed the past week. The nation bought 11.4% of Thai goods shipped overseas in the first seven months.

The yield on Thailand's 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 declined one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.35%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/369333/baht-gains-to-three-week-high-bonds-advance-on-capital-inflows)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on September 12, 2013, 11:28:04 AM
50.29 today against the Pound Stirling.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Al on September 12, 2013, 11:47:50 AM
I won't complain if the baht/US dollar exchange rate remains at or above 30/1.

Of course if and when it does once again drop below that arbitrary benchmark, my complaining will not help much.

That said, a 30/1 exchange rate makes it a bit easier for my feeble brain to calculate the cost, in dollars, of stuff. :lol
Title: Re: Baht has best week for five months
Post by: thaiga on September 13, 2013, 02:31:42 PM
The baht was poised for its best week in five months as foreign investors increased their holdings of the nation’s assets amid optimism that a global economy recovery is brightening the outlook for Asian exports.

The currency touched its strongest level in more than three weeks as exchange data show global funds bought US$310 million more Thai equities than they sold in the first four days of this week, set for their biggest weekly net purchase since November.

US retail sales rose 0.5% in August after a 0.2% gain in July, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists before data due today. The Federal Reserve may cut its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion at its Sept 17-18 policy meeting, a separate survey showed.

“We saw quite a sharp appreciation in the baht because of the inflows,” said Pareena Phuangsiri, a Bangkok-based analyst at Kasikornbank. “But gains will probably be short-lived and we have been recommending exporters wait” to buy the baht, she added.

The baht jumped 1.3% this week, the most since the five-day period ended April 19, to 31.83 per dollar as of 8:50 am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency fell 0.1% today and earlier reached 31.58, the strongest level since Aug 20.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed 18 basis points, or 0.18 percentage points, to 7.88% this week. The gauge fell 11 basis points on Friday.

Overseas investors poured a net $381 million into Thai debt this week through Thursday, according to the Thai Bond Market Association.

Downward pressure on the baht will persist over the next few months given the prospect of the Fed’s tapering, and until confirmation of an improvement in Thailand’s balance of payments in the third quarter, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a research note yesterday. The bank sees the currency at 33 per dollar in three months, weaker than its previous forecast of 31.3.

The yield on Thailand’s 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 declined three basis points from a week ago to 4.37%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate rose one basis point on Friday.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/369540/baht-poised-for-biggest-weekly-gain-since-april-on-inflows)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on September 14, 2013, 12:31:22 PM
50.59 against Sterling at the moment.
Title: Re: Baht in biggest rise since 2007
Post by: thaiga on September 19, 2013, 01:56:39 PM
The baht rose the most since 2007 and government bonds climbed after the United States Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from cutting monetary stimulus that has spurred demand for emerging-market assets.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares rose 1.3% after the Federal Open Market Committee said it wants to see more evidence of a recovery in the world’s largest economy before starting to taper its US$85 billion a month of bond purchases. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast the Fed would reduce the stimulus by $5 billion.

The baht jumped 1.8%, the most since January 2007, to 31.1 per dollar as of 8.17am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 31.055 earlier, the strongest level since July 26. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped eight basis points to 7.9%.

"There is a big rebound in reaction to the Fed," said Pareena Phuangsiri, a Bangkok-based analyst at Kasikornbank Pcl. "I would say it's very dovish. But even though the Fed didn't taper this time" they will do so eventually, she said.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said paring the stimulus could still start this year should data confirm the Fed's "basic outlook." The US will release jobless claims and existing home sales reports later Thursday.

Global funds bought $432 million more Thai equities than they sold this month through yesterday and pumped a net $884 million into government bonds, official data show.

The yield on Thailand's 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 fell 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, to 4.11%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That was the biggest drop since July 9.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/370491/baht-rises-most-since-2007-bonds-gain-on-surprise-fed-decision)
Title: Re: Baht heads for weekly drop
Post by: thaiga on September 27, 2013, 03:58:56 PM
Thailand's baht headed for its first weekly loss in three on concern the country's recession will deter foreign inflows. Bonds advanced for a third week.

The currency weakened on Friday as Barclays Plc cut the country's 2013 economic growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.5%. The lender cited a domestic credit crunch, waning stimulus and lack of confidence after Southeast Asia's second-largest economy shrank in the first two quarters, while exports fell for three months through July.

Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said the central bank is concerned about sluggish private demand and labour shortages.

The baht dropped 0.4% this week to 31.25 per United States dollar as of 9.37am in Bangkok, according data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency fell 0.2% on Friday and has retreated 1.2 percent from a two-month high of 30.88 on Sept 20 that followed the US Federal Reserve decision to not reduce its record stimulus.

"The economy is likely to remain on the downtrend in the second half due to the slowdown in exports," said Thammarat Kittisiripat, an economist in Bangkok at TMB Bank Pcl. "The baht will depreciate and fund outflows in the short term will continue."

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected swings in the exchange rate used to price options, decreased 37 basis points from a week ago to 7.46%. The gauge dropped 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, on Friday.

Stock Outflows

The baht is likely to underperform its Southeast Asian peers, such as Malaysia's ringgit and the Philippine peso, given modest economic growth and weakening external balances, Barclays said in the report. It will fall to 31.5 per dollar by March 31 and 31.75 by June 30, the United Kingdom lender forecasts.

Overseas funds sold $211 million more local stocks than they bought this week, according to exchange data, taking net sales this year to $3.3 billion. The benchmark SET Index has declined 3.5% since Sept 20.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 fell 11 basis points this week to 3.91%, data compiled by Bloomberg show, following a 37 basis points decrease last week that was the biggest drop since August 2011. The rate increased five basis points on Friday.

bangkokpost (http://Thailand's baht headed for its first weekly loss in three on concern the country's recession will deter foreign inflows. Bonds advanced for a third week.

The currency weakened on Friday as Barclays Plc cut the country's 2013 economic growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.5%. The lender cited a domestic credit crunch, waning stimulus and lack of confidence after Southeast Asia's second-largest economy shrank in the first two quarters, while exports fell for three months through July.

Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said the central bank is concerned about sluggish private demand and labour shortages.

The baht dropped 0.4% this week to 31.25 per United States dollar as of 9.37am in Bangkok, according data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency fell 0.2% on Friday and has retreated 1.2 percent from a two-month high of 30.88 on Sept 20 that followed the US Federal Reserve decision to not reduce its record stimulus.

"The economy is likely to remain on the downtrend in the second half due to the slowdown in exports," said Thammarat Kittisiripat, an economist in Bangkok at TMB Bank Pcl. "The baht will depreciate and fund outflows in the short term will continue."

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected swings in the exchange rate used to price options, decreased 37 basis points from a week ago to 7.46%. The gauge dropped 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, on Friday.

Stock Outflows

The baht is likely to underperform its Southeast Asian peers, such as Malaysia's ringgit and the Philippine peso, given modest economic growth and weakening external balances, Barclays said in the report. It will fall to 31.5 per dollar by March 31 and 31.75 by June 30, the United Kingdom lender forecasts.

Overseas funds sold $211 million more local stocks than they bought this week, according to exchange data, taking net sales this year to $3.3 billion. The benchmark SET Index has declined 3.5% since Sept 20.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 fell 11 basis points this week to 3.91%, data compiled by Bloomberg show, following a 37 basis points decrease last week that was the biggest drop since August 2011. The rate increased five basis points on Friday.

[url=Thailand's baht headed for its first weekly loss in three on concern the country's recession will deter foreign inflows. Bonds advanced for a third week.

The currency weakened on Friday as Barclays Plc cut the country's 2013 economic growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.5%. The lender cited a domestic credit crunch, waning stimulus and lack of confidence after Southeast Asia's second-largest economy shrank in the first two quarters, while exports fell for three months through July.

Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said the central bank is concerned about sluggish private demand and labour shortages.

The baht dropped 0.4% this week to 31.25 per United States dollar as of 9.37am in Bangkok, according data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency fell 0.2% on Friday and has retreated 1.2 percent from a two-month high of 30.88 on Sept 20 that followed the US Federal Reserve decision to not reduce its record stimulus.

"The economy is likely to remain on the downtrend in the second half due to the slowdown in exports," said Thammarat Kittisiripat, an economist in Bangkok at TMB Bank Pcl. "The baht will depreciate and fund outflows in the short term will continue."

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected swings in the exchange rate used to price options, decreased 37 basis points from a week ago to 7.46%. The gauge dropped 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, on Friday.

Stock Outflows

The baht is likely to underperform its Southeast Asian peers, such as Malaysia's ringgit and the Philippine peso, given modest economic growth and weakening external balances, Barclays said in the report. It will fall to 31.5 per dollar by March 31 and 31.75 by June 30, the United Kingdom lender forecasts.

Overseas funds sold $211 million more local stocks than they bought this week, according to exchange data, taking net sales this year to $3.3 billion. The benchmark SET Index has declined 3.5% since Sept 20.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 fell 11 basis points this week to 3.91%, data compiled by Bloomberg show, following a 37 basis points decrease last week that was the biggest drop since August 2011. The rate increased five basis points on Friday.

[url=http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/371818/baht-heads-for-weekly-drop-as-barclays-cuts-forecast-bonds-gain)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on October 03, 2013, 11:35:56 AM
All the Republicans' fault:

Thai Baht Climbs as U.S. Shutdown Cuts Dollar Demand; Bonds Rise
By Yumi Teso October 02, 2013

Thailand’s baht gained, extending a rebound from last month’s three-year low to 4.2 percent, as U.S. lawmakers’ failure to resolve a budget impasse damped demand for the dollar. Government bonds advanced.

President Barack Obama said he was “exasperated” with Republican lawmakers, while House Speaker John Boehner said Obama refused to negotiate in a meeting with Congressional leaders. China’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to a six-month high of 55.4 last month, data showed today. Thailand’s exports climbed in August, snapping three months of declines, and the current-account balance showed a surplus for the first time since March, according to official figures.

“With the problem in the U.S., investors don’t want to buy the dollar,” said Hideki Hayashi, a researcher at the Japan Center for Economic Research in Tokyo. “Asia, including Thailand, will be a beneficiary of the recovery in China and other regions through exports.”

The baht rose 0.4 percent to 31.17 per dollar as of 9:20 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected swings in the exchange rate used to price options, increased one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 7.43 percent.

Thailand’s overseas sales will recover in the fourth quarter while the government is concerned that the partial U.S. government shutdown may cause foreign-exchange volatility, Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said yesterday.

Shipments (THCTEXPY) rose 3.9 percent in August from a year earlier after a decline of 1.5 percent the previous month, a customs report showed on Sept. 26. The country posted a current-account surplus of $1.3 billion for the month, following a deficit of $1.6 billion in July, according to central bank data. China is Thailand’s largest overseas market, with a share of 11 percent of goods shipped in the first eight months of this year.

The yield on the 3.625 percent bonds due June 2023 fell two basis points to 3.83 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Businessweek.com
Title: Re: Baht rises to two-week high
Post by: thaiga on October 17, 2013, 11:12:48 AM
Thailand's baht rose to a two-week high, tracking gains in regional currencies, after the United States moved toward ending a budget impasse. Bonds were little changed.

The Senate voted 81-18 to halt the shutdown that began Oct 1 and raise the US debt limit. The House of Representatives will also vote on the agreement, which is aimed at preventing the country's borrowing authority from lapsing on Thursday.

The baht is benefiting as the fiscal standoff in Washington over the past four weeks probably means the Federal Reserve will delay cutting stimulus, said Kampon Adireksombat, a senior economist at Tisco Securities Co in Bangkok.

The baht strengthened 0.3% to 31.164 per US dollar as of 8.24am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 31.145 earlier, the strongest level since Oct 2. The currency has rallied 0.4% in October after weakening 6.5% in the six months through September.

"It's good news for global markets, not only for Thailand, as uncertainty has somewhat subsided," Adireksombat said. "The baht is supported by recent improvements in the current account and exports."

Overseas sales rose 2.5% in August from a year earlier, after decreasing 1.3% in July, the government reported Sept 30. Thailand recorded a $1.3 billion current-account surplus in August, the first excess since March.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, dropped two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 7.04%.

The yield on the 3.125% bonds due December 2015 was steady at 2.9%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate has dropped nine basis points this month.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/375105/baht-rises-to-two-week-high-on-us-debt-deal-fed-taper-outlook)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on October 18, 2013, 02:40:31 PM
Somchai: BoT can oversee baht value

The Bank of Thailand is capable of preventing the baht from too much fluctuation, Somchai Sajjapongse, director general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said on Friday.

The baht’s appreciation for two days in a row, to stand at 31.03 baht to the US dollar on Friday morning, was boosted by the political settlement in the US on the federal budget and debt ceiling, he said.

Even though the US problems had not yet been really resolved, as the debt ceiling was extended only to February 2014, this had made global economies feel more comfortable, he added.

Mr Somchai said his office, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board and the central bank had assessed the situation and prepared necessary measures to deal with any possible negative consequences caused by capital inflow or outflow.

The conflict settlement in the US might trigger foreign investment inflow to Thailand and strengthen the value of the baht currency, but that was not a problem of concern as the central bank  had already  prepared any needed measures, he said.

Thailand also has US$170 billion in foreign reserves, sufficient to deal with any possible situation. At this stage the baht is not too  strong and there is no need for intervention by the central bank, he said.

Asked about speculation the US Federal Reserve would scale down its quantitative easing measure in the first quarter of next year, Mr Somchai said it would be a good development.

It would show that the US economy is recovering and monetary measures to stimulate economic growth were no longer needed. When the US economy recovers, it would boost Thailand’s exports even as it also triggers a foreign investment outflow, affecting the baht's value, he said.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/375238/thailand-has-ample-foreign-reserves-to-control-fluctuation-of-baht-value-says-fpo)
Title: Re: Wide range of baht movement expected
Post by: thaiga on October 20, 2013, 03:22:32 PM
The Thai currency should move in the range of 30.80-31.20 per US dollar next week, as the market will fall under the influence of economic indicators in several countries, said Kasikorn Research Centre.

Next week, to be released in the US includes the non-farm payroll in September, consumer confidence index in October, durable goods orders and home sales.

Thailand’s preliminary trade figures for September will also be released as well as the Bank of Thailand’s revised economic forecast for 2013.

Early last week, the baht strengthened to 31 per US dollar as the world awaited good news on debt ceiling talks in the US. It ended at 31.04 last week, compared to 31.25 in the previous week.

the nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Wide-range-of-baht-movement-expected-30217543.html)
Title: Re: Bonds gain, baht steady
Post by: thaiga on October 24, 2013, 11:53:15 AM
Government bonds rose, pushing the 10-year yield to the lowest level in three months, as the central bank prepares to cut its economic forecasts. The baht was little changed.

The economy may grow 3.5% to 4% this year and 4% to 5% in 2014, Moody's Investors Service said in an Oct 22 note.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) will announce its revised forecasts for gross domestic product and exports tomorrow, the monetary authority said on Oct 16. Manufacturing in China, Thailand's biggest export market, expanded more than anticipated this month, according to a preliminary reading from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics on Thursday.

"The market is a bit wary before the BOT announcement, even though we got positive PMI data in China," said Nalin Chutchotitham, a Bangkok-based analyst at Kasikornbank Pcl.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.808% as of 9.15am in Bangkok, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That is the same level reached on Oct 18, which was the lowest since July 23.

The country does not have a cash shortage and the central bank is absorbing about 600 billion baht (US$19.2 billion) of excess cash from the overnight market, BOT Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on Tuesday. A recovery in export markets may support growth in 2014, Moody's said. China bought 11% of Thai shipments in the first half of 2013, government data showed.

The baht traded at 31.167 per dollar in Bangkok versus 31.151 on Oct 22, according to local prices compiled by Bloomberg. Financial markets were closed on Wednesday for a holiday.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, dropped 11 basis point1, or 0.11 percentage point, to 6.36% from Oct 22.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/376150/thai-bonds-gain-before-central-bank-cuts-forecasts-baht-steady)
Title: Re: Foreign reserves stocked up to prepare for baht uncertainty
Post by: thaiga on October 25, 2013, 02:33:04 PM
BANGKOK, Oct 25 – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has predicted volatility in the money market due to the ongoing risk from the US extension of its debt ceiling.

(http://koratfart.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10747/13826705065248.jpg)

Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, BoT deputy governor for monetary stability, said there were periods when the Thai baht dropped by 7-8 per cent though it had never before slid down 10 per cent.
 
It cannot be predicted whether the US will extend the debt ceiling after the February 7, 2014 deadline but the BoT will keep sufficient foreign reserves to cope with the possible baht volatility, she said.
 
The Thai currency will be maintained at a level acceptable to Thai business operators and to prevent severe impact from foreign capital outflows, she said.
 
Ms Pongpen said the BoT will launch its Thai Direct Investment (TDI) webpage to provide one-stop information to investors and to encourage more Thai business operators to invest abroad.
 
Thai investors have invested at a total of US$5.5 billion in the first eight months of this year, a slight decrease from the same period last year at US$7.8 billion.
 
Thai investment overseas amounted to US$12.7 billion last year.

MCOT online news (http://mcot-web.mcot.net/mcot-testing/site/content?id=5269d99e150ba0266e00035f)
Title: Re: Baht heads for weekly drop
Post by: thaiga on October 25, 2013, 04:16:03 PM
Thailand's baht headed for a weekly decline before a government report that economists forecast will show a slowdown in export growth. Government bonds advanced.

Overseas sales rose 0.5% in September from a year earlier, compared with 3.9% in August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before data due Friday.

The Bank of Thailand will revise its expansion forecast for Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy at 2.30pm local time. The Ministry of Finance cut its 2013 growth projection to 3.7% from 4.5% last month.

The baht fell 0.3% this week to 31.143 per United States dollar as of 9.11am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency was little changed on Friday and has risen 0.5% this month, paring its loss this year to 1.8%.

"The market expects to see a lower gross domestic product  number so we may see a little reaction to that," said Nath Wongsaroj, a senior vice president at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Bangkok. The authorities are probably concerned that "a strong currency will affect exports," he said.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, fell 26 basis points, or 0.26 percentage point, from a week ago to 6.28%. The gauge declined six basis points on Friday.

The yield on the 3.45% bonds due March 2019 dropped eight basis points this week to 3.48%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield rose one basis point on Friday and closed at a four-month low of 3.47% on Thursday.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/376324/baht-heads-for-weekly-drop-as-exports-seen-slowing-bonds-rally)
Title: Re: baht dropped to a seven-week low
Post by: thaiga on November 11, 2013, 12:48:30 PM
Baht, bonds decline amid protests

Thailand's baht dropped to a seven-week low and bonds fell as anti-government protests sparked by an amnesty bill dim the outlook for the economy and prompt overseas investors to pull funds from the country's assets.

The demonstrations against the bill granting amnesty for political offences are beginning to impact the economy, with tourism and investor confidence the most affected, Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said at a seminar in Bangkok on Sunday. The Senate is scheduled to begin voting on the legislation at 10am on Monday. Most emerging-market currencies in the region fell as improved United States jobs data boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will cut stimulus this year.

"While external factors are dollar-positive, Thailand's growing political risk gives more reasons for foreigners to stay away from Thai assets," said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. "The impact on the economy is a major concern at this point. Investors are cautious about the baht and the assets."

The baht depreciated 0.4% to 31.61 per dollar as of 8.46am in Bangkok and reached 31.63, the weakest level since Sept 19, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency dropped 0.9% last week.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, climbed 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, to 6.06%.

Fund Outflows

Global funds pulled a net $876 million from Thai bonds and equities this month through Nov 8, official data show. The SET (SET) Index of shares slid in each of the last three weeks, sliding 1.7% to 1,405.03 in the period ended Nov 8.

Thai police said they will tighten security around the country's parliament in Bangkok on concern protesters will use Monday's Senate vote on the amnesty bill as a pretext to incite violence and destabilizse the government. “Groups will try to step up protests and create chaos," police spokesman Piya Uthayo said on Sunday, adding that authorities would not use force to disperse the rallies unless demonstrators threatened to enter restricted areas.

Wells Fargo's Advantage International Bond Fund has sold its holdings of Thai sovereign bonds on concern uncertainty surrounding the fate of the government's amnesty bill will deter fund inflows, Lauren van Biljon, a London-based analyst for the fund, said in a Nov 5 interview.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 increased nine basis points to 4.06%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It was headed for the highest close since Sept 18.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/379230/thai-baht-bonds-decline-amid-protests-before-amnesty-bill-vote)

Nice to see the pound touching 50 again lets hope it stays there or go higher ;D
Title: Re: Baht falls to two-month low
Post by: thaiga on November 21, 2013, 12:45:25 PM
Thailand's baht fell to a two-month low and government bonds declined after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's October meeting showed stimulus could be cut in the "coming months".

The baht dropped the most in almost two weeks amid concern political unrest in Thailand will subdue economic growth. The Constitution Court ruled against the government's attempt to establish a fully elected Senate on Wednesday, saying the change would undermine its role as a check-and-balance on the lower house. Supporters and opponents of the government called for separate rallies on Nov 24.

"The market's interpretation is that the timing of the tapering is brought forward, which is negative for emerging-market currencies," said Pareena Phuangsiri, a Bangkok-based analyst at Kasikornbank Plc. "For domestic issues, there seem to be big protests this weekend and investors are still worried about the political risk in Thailand, weighing on the baht."

The baht depreciated 0.5%, the most since Nov 8, to 31.787 per United States dollar as of 9.01am Thursday in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 31.810, the weakest level since Sept 17, One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell three basis points to 5.84%.

Taper Talk

The Fed expects economic data to signal continued improvement in the job market and "thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months,” according to the minutes released on Wednesday. Fed Bank of St Louis President James Bullard also stoked tapering speculation, saying a reduction in bond buying is possible in December.

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 2.7% last quarter, the slowest pace since the first three months of 2012, official data showed Nov 18. The government cut its 2013 expansion forecast the same day to 3% from a range of 3.8% to 4.3% projected in August.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 increased four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to a two-month high of 4.17%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/380979/baht-falls-to-two-month-low-on-taper-bets-thai-political-risk)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on November 21, 2013, 12:57:21 PM
The Pound Sterling stands at 51.130 today.
Title: Re: baht fell to a 10-week low
Post by: thaiga on November 25, 2013, 12:38:07 PM
Baht, stocks, bonds drop

Thailand's baht fell to a 10-week low and the stock index headed for its worst close in two months after foreign funds pulled money from local assets amid concern political tension will intensify and harm growth.

Anti-government protests spread to military bases, government offices and television stations on Monday after more than 100,000 people joined rallies on Sunday against Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Global funds pulled a net US$2.1 billion from Thai bonds and equities this month through Nov 22, official data show.

Signs the United States Federal Reserve will taper stimulus also contributed to a 2.5% drop in the baht and a 35 basis point increase in the 10-year bond yield in November.

The baht fell 0.4% to 31.94 per dollar as of 10.06am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 31.97, the weakest level since Sept 13. The SET Index (SET) of shares slumped 0.9% to 1,347.32, heading for its lowest close since Sept 6, and the yield on the 3.625% notes due June 2023 climbed eight basis points to 4.29%.

"Investors want to stay away from Thailand amid concern the protests will intensify or lead to violence again like last time," said Shigehisa Shiroki, chief trader on the Asian and emerging-markets team at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Tokyo. "Risk sentiment wasn’t strong to begin with due to the Fed’s tapering talk, and the political concern encouraged investors to take some money out from Thailand."

Amnesty Bill

Government opponents started street rallies in Bangkok last month to oppose legislative efforts that they said would benefit Prime Minister Yingluck’s brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted as premier in a 2006 coup and has lived in self-imposed exile overseas since fleeing graft charges in 2008. The Yingluck administration has struggled to contain weeks of protests against a bill that would have provided amnesty for most political offences stretching back to the 2006 coup and a separate move to make the senate fully elected.

The purpose of the demonstrations has switched in the past week from opposing those legislative efforts to ending "suffering under the rule of Thaksin and his people," Suthep Thaugsuban, a former member of the opposition Democrat Party who resigned this month to lead the protests, said on Sunday.

"The government has instructed police and all security officers to handle the situation gently, based on international practices, so the demonstration won't be used as a tool by people who want to make changes in a non-democratic way," the premier said on Sunday on her official Facebook page, remarks that were confirmed by her office.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, increased six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 6.08%.

Thailand's economy grew by 2.7% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the first three months of 2012, official data show. The government cut its 2013 expansion forecast to 3% last week, from an earlier projection of as much as 4.3%.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/381593/thai-baht-stocks-bonds-drop-as-anti-government-protests-swell)
Title: Re: Baht below 32 amid protests
Post by: thaiga on November 27, 2013, 04:13:05 PM
The Thai baht has weakened below 32 per US dollar on Wednesday amid protests in Bangkok.
At the open, it was 32.08 per dollar, weakening by 0.25 per cent from yesterday and 3.05 per cent from the end of October.

It also weakened 0.34 per cent and 0.22 per cent against the euro and Japanese yen.

The currency is now traded at a two-month low, as the Finance Ministry could not raise as much as expected from bond sale. Yesterday, the ministry sold only Bt37 billion of government-backed bonds.

According to the Public Debt Management Office, the bonds were also sold at a yield that was higher than market rates.

The baht yesterday fell to 32.110 per dollar, the weakest level since September 11. It managed to climb above the $/Bt32 level at the close.

the nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-below-32-amid-protests-30220724.html)
Title: Re: Baht rises to 2-week high
Post by: thaiga on December 11, 2013, 12:20:50 PM
Thailand's baht rose to a two-week high after Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved parliament to defuse anti-government protests that are now in their second month in Bangkok.

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban repeated a call for Yingluck and her ministers to resign within three days or face renewed anti-government demonstrations. No rallies have been planned in Bangkok on Wednesday. The United States dollar's 14-day relative strength index versus the baht dropped to 57 from as high as 81 last week. A level above 70 suggests to some traders the Southeast Asian currency was oversold and poised to change direction.

The baht climbed 0.3% to 31.985 per dollar as of 9.32am in Bangkok from Dec 9, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency reached 31.95 earlier, the strongest level since Nov 25, and has rallied 0.9% in a week. Onshore markets were closed on Tuesday for a public holiday.

"The baht got some boost as the tension eased in the very short term due to the dissolution of parliament," said Toru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc in Tokyo. "The baht was also in the oversold area and, technically, it was about time to see some rebound. But gains may be limited as uncertainties surrounding Thai politics are still lingering."

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 6.78%.

Growth Risks

His Majesty the King endorsed the dissolution of parliament, and elections will be held on Feb 2, according to a royal decree.

The current pullback in the dollar against the baht is a good opportunity to accumulate a position to bet on the Southeast Asian currency's decline, Nomura Holdings Inc. Singapore-based strategists Craig Chan and Wee Choon Teo said in a research note on Tuesday, citing the risks to growth from the deteriorating political situation. The economy grew 2.7% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the first three months of 2012, official data show.

The yield on the 3.625% bonds due June 2023 was little changed at 4.01%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The government will auction 8 billion baht ($250 million) of notes due 2061 and 20 billion baht of securities maturing 2019 at 10am local time.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/384267/thai-baht-rises-to-two-week-high-after-yingluck-dissolves-house)
Title: Re: Baht hit by fed tapering and rallies
Post by: thaiga on December 20, 2013, 08:36:29 PM
Thailand’s baht had its biggest weekly decline in four months and government bonds fell after the Federal Reserve announced it would reduce stimulus that has fuelled demand for emerging-market assets.

The currency touched a three-year low today as anti- government protesters rallied on the streets of Bangkok to attract support ahead of a major demonstration planned for Dec 22. The main opposition Democrat Party will meet tomorrow to decide whether to boycott the general election on Feb 2. The Fed said this week it will cut its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion in January from $85 billion previously.

“The depreciation in the baht was triggered by the Fed’s tapering,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Bangkok. “In the short-term, the baht will remain under a gradual weaker bias. Thailand’s political uncertainty will probably make it hard for investors to buy Thai assets.”

The baht fell 1.8 per cent this week to 32.63 per dollar as of 3:38pm in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the most since the period ended Aug 23. The currency, which dropped 0.5 per cent today, touched 32.65 earlier, the weakest level since June 2010. It has lost 4.3 per cent this quarter.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 15 basis points this week to 6.39 per cent. The gauge increased seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, today.

The Fed will taper its bond buying in $10 billion increments over the next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, according to a Bloomberg survey of 41 economists yesterday.

The baht’s weakness is in line with the region after the Fed’s move while the central bank is prepared for any possible impact, Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas told reporters today. Political uncertainties may affect the currency, she added.

Capital is expected to flow out of Thailand because of the reduction in stimulus, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, said in national television broadcast yesterday. Global funds pulled a net $178 million from Thai bonds and equities in the first four days of this week, official data show.

The yield on the 3.625 percent bonds due June 2023 rose one basis point this week to 4.04 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate was little changed today.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/385903/baht-has-worst-week-since-august-on-fed-tapering-and-thai-protests)

(http://koratfart.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10747/sl_1%282%29.gif)
Title: Re: Thai currency lost 4.9 percent past two months
Post by: thaiga on December 23, 2013, 04:19:48 PM
Baht declines to a three-year low

Thailand’s baht fell to the weakest level in more than three years on concern prolonged political unrest will damp investment and hurt the economy. Bonds gained.

More than 1,000 anti-government protesters have surrounded Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s home in Bangkok, as she criticised the opposition Democrat party’s plan to boycott a Feb 2 election.

Suthep Thaugsuban, who is leading the demonstrators, has vowed to thwart the polls, which were announced after Yingluck dissolved the parliament on Dec 9 amid mass protests. The Thai currency has lost 4.9 percent in the past two months as the main stock index dropped 7.9 percent.

“Investors aren’t buying the Thai baht if this political situation continues,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Bangkok. The baht may gradually weaken toward 32.9 per dollar as the political conflict threatens the economy, he said.

The baht depreciated 0.4 percent today to 32.75 per dollar as of 9.55 am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the weakest level since June 7, 2010.

Thailand Election Commission secretary-general Puchong Nutrawong said Dec 21 the boycott would not  affect the vote. Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy expanded 2.7 percent in the third quarter, the least in more than a year.

As the effectiveness of the election to end the street protests is now in doubt, political certainty looks set to last longer and the baht will come under more pressure, Credit Agricole CIB’s Hong Kong-based analyst Anthony Lam wrote in a research note today.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 6.14 percent.

Government bonds gained. The yield on the 3.625 percent notes due June 2023 declined one basis point to 4.02 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/386301/political-unrest-damps-outlook-baht-at-3-year-low)

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Title: Re: baht is heading for further consolidation
Post by: thaiga on December 26, 2013, 12:10:07 PM
KBank: Baht to hit 34 in Q1

The baht is heading for further consolidation, with 34 baht to the dollar expected by the first quarter of 2014 with the US economy picking up and the Federal Reserve's planned tapering.

If the baht hits 34 to the dollar, it would mark a four-year, three-month low, said Kasikornbank's head of capital markets Thiti Tantikulanan. The bank also forecast the local currency will weaken throughout 2014 gradually, weighed down by several uncertainties in both local and overseas markets.

The US central bank plans to start winding down its US$85 billion monthly asset purchase scheme amid a nascent economic recovery, and the pace of the reduction could become more aggressive if the world's largest economy shows stronger signs of a rebound, he said, which should strengthen the dollar.

The local currency's depreciation is still in line with its regional peers. Based on one month of data, the Indonesian rupiah dipped at the quickest pace in Asia, down 4.4% against the greenback, followed by the baht at 2.8%, Malaysian ringgit at 2.3%, and Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar, and Philippine peso all down 1%.

"The baht has weakened faster than expected amid the lacklustre local economy. We are likely to revise our projection for the end of 2014 from 33 baht to the dollar as it does not price in the political factor," said Mr Thiti.

He said it is difficult to predict foreign capital flows in the local bond market. Outstanding foreign bond-holding in the market stands at 700 billion baht, the same level as the beginning of the year after peaking at 750 billion baht in April. Foreign bond-holding in the local market skyrocketed from 70 billion baht in 2010, driven by the Fed's easing measures.

Foreign investors in the local stock market have pulled out 170 billion baht net year-to-date.

Mr Thiti forecast 2014 would be the busiest year yet for corporate issuance, at 300-350 billion baht, driven by last month's policy rate cut to 2.25%.

Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, the Bank of Thailand deputy governor overseeing monetary stability, said foreign investors are waiting, but she does not expect they will pull out all their investments even if the country is stuck in a tailspin.

"Developments in January are important as they will indicate which direction the country will take," she said. "There have been some capital outflows recently, but the amount is not excessive."

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/386661/kbank-baht-to-hit-34-in-q1)

(http://koratfart.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10747/lauture_1.gif)
Title: Re: Baht in record losing streak
Post by: thaiga on January 02, 2014, 11:49:58 AM
Thailand's baht fell for an 11th day, the longest losing streak on record, on concern capital outflows will quicken amid prolonged political unrest in the country.

The currency touched the weakest level since March 2010, adding to the worst annual loss in 13 years, before a meeting today between the Election Commission and members of the ruling and opposition parties to find ways to ease tensions that have gripped the country since October.

Global funds pulled US$1.3 billion from Thai stocks last month, exchange data show. The central bank will review policy on Jan 22 after official figures showed exports contracted for a third month in November.

"Portfolio flows will be affected given the ongoing political situation," said Saktiandi Supaat, head of foreign-exchange research at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore. "The question is whether the central bank is going to make any moves to ease policy."

The baht retreated 0.1% to 32.895 per dollar from Dec 27 as of 9.32am in Bangkok, according to prices from regional banks compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.958 on Thursday, the weakest level since March 1, 2010, after losing 6.9 % last year in the biggest yearly drop since 2000.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, was little changed at 6.91%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Inflation Report

Consumer prices probably rose 1.6% in December from a year earlier, after increasing 1.9% the previous month, according to the median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey before data due Thursday.

Overseas shipments declined 4.1% in November from a year earlier, according to a Dec 25 report. The Bank of Thailand cut its one-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% in November.

The anti-government protest group has not agreed to talk to the Election Commission at Thursday's meeting, Commissioner Somchai Srisuthiyakorn told reporters on Wednesday. The protesters have said they plan to shut down large parts of Bangkok starting Jan 13 to pressure the government to delay the Feb 2 general election and allow political reforms to take place.

The baht may pare declines once there is political clarity after the current deadlock is broken, according to a Dec 31 research note from Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 was little changed at 3.93%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/387599/baht-in-record-losing-streak-as-political-unrest-spurs-outflows)
Title: Re: Baht, bonds head for weekly declines
Post by: thaiga on January 10, 2014, 03:51:59 PM
Thailand's baht headed for a fourth weekly slide and the 10-year bonds fell as anti-government protests since October prompted global investors to cut holdings.

The currency traded near its 2010 low, while yields rose the most since November as global funds pulled a net US$129 million from Thai bonds in January.

Demonstrations scheduled next week in parts of central Bangkok may cost the economy as much as 1 billion baht ($30 million) a day, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. The political unrest and the Federal Reserve's stimulus reduction may extend outflows, Bank of Thailand deputy governor Pongpen Ruengvirayudh said on Wednesday.

"While the Fed's tapering is weighing on emerging-market assets as a whole, Thailand is seeing more downward pressure due to the unrest," said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. "The baht and the Thai assets look relatively weak, and the outlook is bearish for the time being."

The baht declined 0.1% this week to 33.037 per dollar and reached 33.148 on Jan 6, the weakest level since 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It was steady on Friday.

The yield on the 3.625% debt due June 2023 climbed 19 basis points from a week ago, the most since the five days through Nov 1, to 4.08% as of 8.17am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rate, unchanged on Friday, was at a one-month high.

Security officials and demonstrators should avoid clashes, Winthai Suvaree, the deputy army spokesman, said on Thursday, as anti-government groups plan to widen their protest in Bangkok next Monday, blocking off some major intersections to pressure caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to delay the Feb 2 election to allow time for political reforms to take place.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, increased 15 basis points from a week ago to 7.02%. It dropped 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point, on Friday.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/388903/thai-baht-bonds-head-for-weekly-declines-amid-political-unrest)
Title: Re: Baht 'could come under severe pressure'
Post by: thaiga on January 11, 2014, 12:04:13 PM
CONTINUING political unrest set to culminate in next week's "Bangkok shutdown" campaign by opponents of the government is adding to pressure on the baht, which amid other factors could weaken to 34 against the US dollar if there are violent clashes.

Sutee Losoponkul, first executive vice president of CIMB Thai Bank and head of its treasury group, said yesterday that the bank saw no immediate prospect for large capital inflows, and the baht was unlikely to regain strength before the political situation is resolved.

But even if the immediate political conflict is calmed down, until there is assurance that the previously planned infrastructure mega-projects will get back on track, the economy will not be on a firm growth path. This is despite the fact that Thailand remains a good place to invest in terms of strong economic fundamentals and strategic location, Sutee said.

CIMB Thai expects the baht this year to average 33.5-33.6 against the greenback but could hit 34 if the US Federal Reserve ends its bond-purchasing programme. And that 34 mark could arrive much more suddenly if riots erupt on Monday, he said.

He also noted that the weaker baht was not yet having much effect in terms of fuelling an export recovery. Meanwhile foreign tourists are starting to take their vacations elsewhere, fearing violence in Thailand, adding another unwanted blow to the baht.

CIMB Thai warns traders to pay serious attention to foreign-currency forward contracts to mitigate risk.

"It is not only Thailand that is facing currency depreciation, neighbouring countries such as Malaysia are also. Therefore, gaining margins from the baht's depreciation is not the right solution for exporters. They should think seriously about hedging tools and focus on improving operational efficiency to compete with traders in neighbouring countries," Sutee said.

Meanwhile HSBC Global Research says in its "Asian FX Focus 2014" outlook that the house is cautious on the baht on a number of fronts, both domestic and external.

Last year Thailand's forex cover fell to its lowest level since 2006. While the ratio was still higher than others in Asia, and the Bank of Thailand is ready and able to intervene to reduce foreign-exchange volatility, the weak growth outlook may curb efforts to contain baht weakness. Indeed, the central bank could cut the policy rate again in light of slower growth potential and political pressures, the house said.

Sentiment is likely to remain cautious going into the February 2 election, it said, which the main opposition party is boycotting. While political headwinds are not new for the baht, they are now having a larger impact on the currency. The Fed's tapering of its quantitative easing programme has also made foreign investors more selective, and Thailand's narrower current-account deficit has meant that capital flows are having a larger direct impact on the baht than in the past.

Roong Mallikamas, BOT director of macroeconomic policy, said the baht's depreciation encouraged importers to increase their forex-hedging volumes.

In November alone, importers' hedging volumes increased to 27 per cent from 17 per cent in October, while hedging activities by exporters in November increased to 34 per cent, from 30 per cent the previous month, she noted. Yet, trend of hedging by exporters is lower than the average volumes of 30-40 per cent.

"We expect the trend of baht depreciation will make hedging attractive to importers because currency volatility is [a major] risk for trading businesses."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-could-come-under-severe-pressure-30224002.html (http://CONTINUING political unrest set to culminate in next week's "Bangkok shutdown" campaign by opponents of the government is adding to pressure on the baht, which amid other factors could weaken to 34 against the US dollar if there are violent clashes.
Sutee Losoponkul, first executive vice president of CIMB Thai Bank and head of its treasury group, said yesterday that the bank saw no immediate prospect for large capital inflows, and the baht was unlikely to regain strength before the political situation is resolved.

But even if the immediate political conflict is calmed down, until there is assurance that the previously planned infrastructure mega-projects will get back on track, the economy will not be on a firm growth path. This is despite the fact that Thailand remains a good place to invest in terms of strong economic fundamentals and strategic location, Sutee said.

CIMB Thai expects the baht this year to average 33.5-33.6 against the greenback but could hit 34 if the US Federal Reserve ends its bond-purchasing programme. And that 34 mark could arrive much more suddenly if riots erupt on Monday, he said.

He also noted that the weaker baht was not yet having much effect in terms of fuelling an export recovery. Meanwhile foreign tourists are starting to take their vacations elsewhere, fearing violence in Thailand, adding another unwanted blow to the baht.

CIMB Thai warns traders to pay serious attention to foreign-currency forward contracts to mitigate risk.

"It is not only Thailand that is facing currency depreciation, neighbouring countries such as Malaysia are also. Therefore, gaining margins from the baht's depreciation is not the right solution for exporters. They should think seriously about hedging tools and focus on improving operational efficiency to compete with traders in neighbouring countries," Sutee said.

Meanwhile HSBC Global Research says in its "Asian FX Focus 2014" outlook that the house is cautious on the baht on a number of fronts, both domestic and external.

Last year Thailand's forex cover fell to its lowest level since 2006. While the ratio was still higher than others in Asia, and the Bank of Thailand is ready and able to intervene to reduce foreign-exchange volatility, the weak growth outlook may curb efforts to contain baht weakness. Indeed, the central bank could cut the policy rate again in light of slower growth potential and political pressures, the house said.

Sentiment is likely to remain cautious going into the February 2 election, it said, which the main opposition party is boycotting. While political headwinds are not new for the baht, they are now having a larger impact on the currency. The Fed's tapering of its quantitative easing programme has also made foreign investors more selective, and Thailand's narrower current-account deficit has meant that capital flows are having a larger direct impact on the baht than in the past.

Roong Mallikamas, BOT director of macroeconomic policy, said the baht's depreciation encouraged importers to increase their forex-hedging volumes.

In November alone, importers' hedging volumes increased to 27 per cent from 17 per cent in October, while hedging activities by exporters in November increased to 34 per cent, from 30 per cent the previous month, she noted. Yet, trend of hedging by exporters is lower than the average volumes of 30-40 per cent.

"We expect the trend of baht depreciation will make hedging attractive to importers because currency volatility is a major risk for trading businesses."

[url=http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-could-come-under-severe-pressure-30224002.html)
Title: Re: Baht expected to swing between 32.95 - 33.10 per US dollar
Post by: thaiga on January 13, 2014, 12:54:56 PM
BANGKOK 13 January 2014 (NNT) — The Thai baht opened and stabilized at 33.07 - 33.08 baht per US dollar this morning. Analysts expect the value to swing between 32.95 - 33.10 during the protests.

Financial analysts from Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) reported that the baht opened at 33.07 - 33.08 baht per US dollar today, similar to the closing value last Friday, before making a high at 33.10/11 baht per US dollar and later stabilizing.

The weakening baht has been attributed to the ongoing demonstrations by the PDRC's attempt to immobilize Bangkok.

However, analysts have predicted a stronger baht if no violence erupts, adding that today’s value should swing around 32.95 - 33.10 baht per US dollar.

NNT (http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNPOL5701130010004)
Title: Re: Baht advances most in three months
Post by: thaiga on January 14, 2014, 06:01:28 PM
Thailand's baht strengthened the most in almost three months as no violence was reported during the blockade of Bangkok by anti-government demonstrators.

"The protest is likely to remain peaceful,'' Charamporn Jotikasthira, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said in an emailed statement on Tuesday.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's administration has faced more than two months of street rallies demanding her resignation and electoral reforms. The baht strengthened for a third day as the latest US jobs data eased concern the Federal Reserve (Fed) will quicken reductions in its debt purchases that have buoyed emerging markets.

"At least we don't see any significant developments on the domestic political front,'' said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Bangkok. "There's some support from US data side for the baht. Still, political unrest is lingering and the baht is unlikely to gain sharply.''

The currency climbed 0.6%, the most since Oct 17, to 32.78 per dollar as of 2.06pm, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 32.745 earlier, the strongest level since Jan 2. One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, increased six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7.2%.

US employers added 74,000 workers last month, the least since January 2011, official figures showed on Jan 10. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for an increase of 197,000. The Fed said in December it will cut its monthly debt buying by US$10 billion to $75 billion starting January amid signs of an improvement in the labor market.

The yield on the 3.875 percent government bonds due June 2019 was little changed at 3.44%t, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/389525/baht-advances-most-in-three-months)
Title: Re: Baht set for best week
Post by: thaiga on January 17, 2014, 02:32:52 PM
Thailand's baht was set for its biggest weekly gain since October as anti-government protests lost momentum in Bangkok. Bonds rose on speculation the central bank will cut borrowing costs next week.

The currency climbed to a three week-high after the number of people manning roadblocks at Victory Monument and Asoke, two of seven protest sites in the capital, fell below a hundred at times Thursday, down from more than a thousand when the demonstrations began at the start of the week. The Bank of Thailand will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2% on Jan 22, according to seven of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg. One forecast no change.

"The risk premium for the baht has come down," said Pareena Phuangsiri, an analyst at Kasikornbank Pcl in Bangkok. "It's not really a shutdown as people are still able to come to work, and now more cars are on the street. However, there still is the political uncertainty which will cap gains."

The local currency climbed 0.7% this week, the most since the five-day period through Oct 18, and 0.1% on Friday to 32.77 per United States dollar as of 9.30am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The baht dropped 2% in the past month and reached 33.148 on Jan 6, the weakest level since 2010.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell eight basis points from a week ago and six basis points today to 7.16%.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/390065/baht-set-for-best-week-since-october-as-bangkok-protests-wane)

I see the pound is losing ground
Title: Re: Baht declines most in a week
Post by: thaiga on January 22, 2014, 12:17:42 PM
Thailand's baht fell the most in a week after caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra declared a state of emergency in Bangkok on Tuesday evening as escalating attacks on protesters threatened to derail elections set for Feb 2.

The move marks a shift in strategy by Ms Yingluck, who put up mild resistance as demonstrators calling for an unelected council to take power occupied buildings and streets over the past three months. Bombings at anti-government rallies and shootings in the capital have killed one person and injured 70 since Jan 17. Global funds bought $139 million more Thai bonds than they sold in the first two days of this week amid speculation the central bank will lower borrowing costs on Wednesday.

"The situation is getting worse, and the state of emergency is another negative factor" for Thailand, said Disawat Tiaowvanich, a foreign-exchange trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl. "We can't see how it will end. The baht will remain under downward pressure."

The baht depreciated 0.2%, the most since Jan 15, to 32.89 per dollar as of 8.32am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has weakened 5.2% since the protests began on Oct 31. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 7.15%.

Rate Speculation

Suthep Thaugsuban, a former opposition party lawmaker leading the protests, vowed to continue blockades of major Bangkok intersections that began on Jan 13. Thailand last experienced a state of emergency to combat protests in 2010, when Mr Suthep's Democrat Party held power and oversaw a crackdown on protesters loyal to former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Yingluck's elder brother, that cost the lives of more than 90 people.

Two-year government bonds, which are the most sensitive to the policy outlook, were steady. The yield on the 3.125% debt due December 2015 was unchanged at 2.41%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Bank of Thailand will likely cut its policy rate to 2% from 2.25% on Wednesday, according to 14 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Seven forecast no change. The central bank delivered a surprise 25-basis-point reduction at its previous meeting on Nov 27. The decision is due 2.30pm local time Wednesday.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/390857/baht-declines-most-in-a-week-after-emergency-declared-in-bangkok)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on January 24, 2014, 09:11:15 AM
The Baht continues to fall rapidly against Sterling, standing this morning at THB54.5139, according to Go Currency.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Al on January 24, 2014, 09:25:49 AM
It seems, to me at least, that over the past couple of months that the Baht has remained in a fairly small range against the dollar.  It is currently at THB32.8604 according to XE Currency.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on January 24, 2014, 09:30:16 AM
The US$ has been falling against Sterling recently (65.893 this morning). That would explain its different trend against the THB.
Title: Re: Baht and bonds fall
Post by: thaiga on January 31, 2014, 12:55:38 PM
Baht and bonds fall on election fears

The baht headed for its worst week in almost a month and government bonds dropped after global funds pulled money from local assets amid concern this weekend’s election will turn violent.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is deploying 10,000 police in Bangkok alone for the Feb 2 poll, seeking to avoid a repeat of violence that obstructed advance voting on Jan 26.

The baht hit a three-week low as official data showed foreign investors sold $499 million more Thai stocks and bonds than they bought this week through Thursday. Most Asian currencies fell this week as the Federal Reserve cut stimulus that’s buoyed emerging markets.

“We have seen demand for the dollar on concern about the situation before the election,” said Disawat Tiaowvanich, a foreign-exchange trader at Bangkok Bank. “There’s the Fed’s tapering that caused emerging-market selloffs and plus, we have this political unrest. No one would like to put money in Thailand unless we have solutions.”

The baht dropped 0.5% this week, the most since the period ended Jan 3, to 33 per dollar as of 9.10am, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It declined 0.1% on Friday and reached 33.024, the weakest level since Jan 13, taking the month’s loss to 0.7%.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose four basis points from a week ago to 7.37%. The gauge dropped eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point on Friday.

Street Protests

Suthep Thaugsuban, the former opposition party power-broker leading street protests, has announced plans for a march across Bangkok on the day of the vote. Ten people have been killed and 584 injured since the demonstrations began on Oct 31, according to the Bangkok Emergency Medical Service.

The Fed said this week it will trim monthly bond purchases to US$65 billion (2,080 billion baht) from $75 billion, sticking to a plan for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus.

The yield on the 3.125% debt due December 2015 rose two basis points this week to 2.44%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate was little changed on Friday.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/392500/baht-and-bonds-fall-in-week-on-fund-outflows-before-election)
Title: Re: Baht gains most in three weeks
Post by: thaiga on February 03, 2014, 01:22:55 PM
Thailand's baht rose the most in almost three weeks after voters cast ballots across 90% of the country Sunday without triggering major violence.

The baht strengthened 0.3%, the most since Jan 14, to 32.915 per United States dollar as of 8.56am, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency fell every day last week, declining 0.6%.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she was pleased with the situation because there was no violence, after polls closed at 3pm local time Sunday. She deployed 10,000 police in Bangkok, having declared a state of emergency to avoid a repeat of the disturbances that obstructed advance voting in the south and most of the capital on Jan 26. Global funds have pulled a net US$4.7 billion from the country's bonds and stocks since the protests began Oct 31, official data show.

"There was some concern surrounding the election but it ended without any chaos, leading to some buy-backs of the baht," said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Bangkok. "But a rebound in the baht may be limited as there's no change in the situation with political unrest continuing."

Results delayed

The country's third general election since a 2006 coup will do little to quell street protests by groups demanding Yingluck’s resignation and the installation of an appointed government. The results of the poll, which the main opposition Democrat Party boycotted, won’t be announced until by-elections are held in dozens of districts where protesters blocked candidates from registering.

Ten people have been killed and almost 600 injured since the protests began. Suthep Thaugsuban, a former Democrat powerbroker who has led a three-month campaign to oust Ms Yingluck, said the election will be annulled because his group blocked candidates from registering in some provinces and shut down polling stations during advance voting. Protesters have also occupied several major intersections in the city since Jan 13 in a bid to prevent Ms Yingluck's government from functioning.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 7.4%.

The yield on the 3.125% government bonds due December 2015 declined one basis point to 2.44%.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/392953/baht-gains-most-in-three-weeks-after-poll-without-major-violence)
Title: Re: Thai Baht gains most in a month
Post by: thaiga on February 17, 2014, 03:00:09 PM
Thailand’s baht strengthened the most in a month and bonds rose after police began dismantling anti-government demonstration sites.

Riot police removed barriers, sandbags and tents outside Government House on Feb 14, when onshore financial markets were closed for a public holiday.

Gross domestic product increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, more than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey for a 0.3%, official data showed Monday. Most Asian currencies rose today after China reported record new credit in January.

“Thai protests are still going on, but at least we don’t see a worsening of the situation,” Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “That makes it easier for investors to buy back the baht while emerging markets are in a recovery mood.”

The baht climbed 0.7% from Feb 13, the most since Jan 14, to 32.364 per dollar as of 11:09am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.28 earlier, the strongest level since Dec 19. One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped five basis points on Monday, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.35%.

Since the anti-government protests began on Oct 31, demonstrators have occupied ministries, blockaded Bangkok intersections and disrupted polling during the Feb 2 election to pressure caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to step down. The movement has waned in recent weeks, with numbers dwindling to fewer than 100 at some demonstration sites.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/395474/thai-baht-gains-most-in-a-month)
Title: Re: Baht drops most in six weeks
Post by: thaiga on February 18, 2014, 12:40:51 PM
Yesterday Thailand’s baht strengthened the most in a month - today Baht drops most in six weeks :uhm

Thailand's baht fell the most in six weeks on concern anti-government protests will continue to crimp economic growth.

Gross domestic product increased 0.6% in the last three months of 2013, the least since the first quarter of 2012, official data showed Monday. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban called on supporters on Monday to join what he called the "final battle" against caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra tomorrow. The baht touched a two-month high on Tuesday and its 14-day relative strength index reached 28 on Monday, below the 30 threshold that suggests to some traders a turnaround is likely.

"The impact on the economy from the protests will be quite severe in the current quarter," said Toru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc in Tokyo. "For the baht to see further appreciation from here, we need much better news like the ending of the demonstrations. From a technical perspective, the baht seems to be overbought."

The baht dropped 0.5%, the most since Jan 2, to 32.43 per United States dollar as of 9.21am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.207 earlier, the strongest level since Dec 19. The currency has weakened 4% since the end of October, when the protests began.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 6.27%.

The economy grew 2.9% in 2013, compared with a revised 6.5% the previous year, according to the data released on Monday. The growth was in line with the central bank's expectations and current monetary policy is accommodative, Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said Monday.

The yield on the 3.125% government bonds due December 2015 was steady at 2.35%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield has dropped 24 basis points this year.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/395665/thailand-s-baht-drops-most-in-six-weeks-as-protests-harm-growth)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: sicho on February 18, 2014, 01:24:44 PM
Given what's going on in Bangkok right now, I guess we ain't seen nothin' yet.
Title: Re: Baht posts biggest two-day loss
Post by: thaiga on February 19, 2014, 06:41:54 PM
The baht completed its biggest two-day loss in almost two months after clashes between anti-government protesters and police in Bangkok killed five people and wounded at least 66.

The baht weakened 0.3% to 32.55 per dollar as of 3.33pm, after touching 32.67 earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its two-day loss to 0.9% was the most since Dec 20. The currency has depreciated 4.4% since the end of October, when the protests began.

''The baht is looking increasingly vulnerable,'' said Nicholas Spiro, London-based managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy. ``It's the bleak prospects for the already weak domestic economy, as the political standoff shows no signs whatsoever of being resolved in a peaceful manner.''

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, increased 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 6.54%.

The yield on the 3.125% government bonds due December 2015 was little changed at 2.34%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield has dropped 25 basis points this year.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/395908/baht-posts-biggest-two-day-loss)
Title: Re: Baht set for worst week of 2014
Post by: thaiga on February 21, 2014, 05:32:32 PM
Thailand's baht headed for its worst week this year amid concern prolonged political turmoil will deepen an economic slowdown.

Clashes between police and anti-government protesters left five people dead and injured at least 69 on Feb 18, prompting Moody’s Investors Service to warn the unrest may hurt Thailand’s credit profile if it stretches beyond the first half.

The economy grew 2.9% last year, after a revised 6.5% in 2012. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) fell this week as minutes of the United States Federal Reserve's January meeting showed support for stimulus cuts and data from China missed estimates.

"The unrest in Thailand would keep downward bias on the baht," said Pareena Phuangsiri, an analyst at Kasikornbank Plc in Bangkok. "Global factors such as the Fed’s minutes and China data also impacted the baht and the Asian currencies."

The baht depreciated 0.6% this week to 32.525 as of 9.35am in Bangkok, the biggest five-day loss since the period ended Dec 27, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency rose 0.2% on Friday.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 10 basis points on Friday to 6.47%. It rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, this week.

Investors should sell the baht against the dollar before the weekend as Thai farmers plan to step up protests in Bangkok against payment delays in a grain purchase program, Credit Agricole CIB economist Dariusz Kowalczyk wrote in a note on Friday.

'Further instability'

"The risk of further instability over the weekend is high," Kowalczyk wrote.

A preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index in China, Thailand’s largest export market, fell to a seven-month low in February, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics reported on Thursday. Several Fed officials back a continued decrease in bond purchases unless there is an “appreciable change” in the US economic outlook, the minutes released this week showed.

Thailand’s two-year sovereign bonds gained. The yield on the 3.125% notes due in December 2015 fell five basis points this week and one basis point today to 2.31%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the lowest level since the bonds were auctioned in 2010.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/396241/baht-set-for-worst-week-of-2014-as-protests-cloud-growth-outlook)
Title: Re: Baht down on political violence
Post by: thaiga on February 25, 2014, 07:00:24 PM
Investor concerns as violence damages economic growth

Thailand’s baht fell the most in almost a week after explosions at anti-government protest sites killed four people over the weekend, adding to concern there is no end in sight for the unrest that is damaging growth.

Three people, two children and a woman, were killed when an explosion ripped through Bangkok’s main shopping district on Sunday and a five-year-old girl died in a separate blast in the eastern province of Trat on Saturday night, Feb 22.

The economy grew 2.9% last year, slowing from a revised 6.5% pace in 2012, and the National Economic and Social Development Board cut its 2014 expansion forecast this month to 3% to 4% from a previous range of 4% to 5%.

“The prolonged unrest will damage the economy and that’s also an underlying factor weighing on the local currency,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Bangkok. “Losses in the baht may be limited by speculation of month-end demand from exporters.”

The baht fell 0.3% to 32.615 per US dollar as of 8.37 am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has dropped 4.6% since the protests began on Oct 31, the most among the 11 most-traded regional currencies. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 6.59%.

Global funds sold $573 million more local equities than they bought this month through Feb 21 and offloaded a net $20 million of Thai bonds, official data show.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/396701/violence-damaging-economic-growth)
Title: Re: Baht advances on easing political strife
Post by: thaiga on March 07, 2014, 11:43:06 AM
Thailand’s baht rose this week, after falling in each of the previous two periods, on increased fund inflows as anti-government protesters removed blockades at four main intersections in central Bangkok.

Global funds purchased $175 million more Thai equities than they sold this week through yesterday and poured a net $250 million into bonds, official data show. Consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since November 2001 amid political unrest that began in October, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said yesterday. The currency reached a two-week high today after concern eased that Russia’s incursion into Ukraine will spark a broader conflict.

“Although political problems persist in Thailand, the direction of the situation is at least turning to better from worse and that spurred some inflows of funds and provided support for the baht and Thai assets,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Easing geopolitical risks in the global market from the Russia-Ukraine situation also helped emerging currencies.”

The baht strengthened 0.9 per cent this week and 0.1 per cent today to 32.272 per dollar as of 9:29am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 32.22 earlier, the strongest level since Feb 18. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose six basis points from a week ago and four basis points today to 6.49 per cent.

Credit Ratings

Even as Thailand’s political turmoil weighs on the economy’s growth outlook, the sovereign credit profile remains consistent with its Baa1 rating, the third-lowest investment grade, and stable outlook, Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday in a statement.

The nation’s long-term foreign-currency rating was affirmed at BBB+, also the third-lowest investment ranking, by Fitch Ratings yesterday. Prolonged and more intense political tension could risk protracted economic weakness and erosion of confidence in the market, which could put pressure on sovereign creditworthiness, Fitch said in a statement.

Two-year government bonds were steady this week before a Bank of Thailand meeting on March 12. The central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate to 2 per cent from 2.25 per cent, according to 10 of 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The rest predict no change.

The yield on the 3.125 per cent government bonds due December 2015 was little changed from Feb 28 at 2.27 per cent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, today.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/398663/baht-advances-in-week-as-easing-political-concern-spurs-inflows)
Title: Re: Baht falls most in 3 weeks
Post by: thaiga on March 10, 2014, 12:49:50 PM
Thailand's baht fell by the most in almost three weeks as United States data supported odds that the Federal Reserve will keep trimming monetary stimulus, while a slide in China's exports raised concern about regional growth.

The baht weakened for a third day after a report late last week showed US employers added 175,000 workers in February, the most in three months and more than the 149,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Exports from China, Thailand’s biggest overseas market, unexpectedly decreased 18% in February, the largest decline since 2009.

"The US data reaffirms the Fed will continue to taper, weighing on the baht," said Disawat Tiaowvanich, a currency trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl. "The bad data from China raised concern about regional exports. In addition, we have speculation of Japanese repatriation" of funds before the March 31 year-end, putting pressure on the baht, he said.

The baht fell 0.3%, the biggest loss since Feb 18, to 32.390 per US dollar as of 9.06am  in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency may trade between 32.35 and 32.75 this week, Mr Disawat said.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 6.6%.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) will lower its benchmark interest rate to 2% from 2.25% on March 12, according to 16 of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest forecast no change.

Government bonds declined. The yield on the 3.125% notes due December 2015 rose one basis point to 2.26%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The securities completed a fourth weekly gain on March 7.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/399120/baht-falls-most-in-3-weeks-as-us-data-affirms-tapering-outlook)
Title: Re: baht fell as the central bank cut borrowing costs
Post by: thaiga on March 14, 2014, 12:41:42 PM
3-year bonds advance, policy rate cut

Thailand’s three-year government bonds headed for their best week since November and the baht fell as the central bank cut borrowing costs.

The yield dropped to the lowest level since 2010 today after the Bank of Thailand lowered its benchmark interest rate to 2 per cent from 2.25 per cent on March 12, as expected by 16 of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Constitutional Court will consider annulling the Feb 2 incomplete election and ruled on March 12 that Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s 2 trillion-baht ($62 billion) infrastructure bill was illegal.

“The rate cut was partly priced in before the meeting, but helped drag down yields and the baht after the decision,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Bangkok. “Investors are keeping their eyes on political developments and, on that front, will stay on the sidelines for a while.”

The yield on the 4.125 per cent bonds due November 2016 dropped 11 basis points this week and one basis point today to 2.59 per cent as of 8:33am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was the biggest weekly decline since the five-day period ended Nov 29.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission extended its deadline for Ms Yingluck to submit her defense statement over accusations of negligence in her role in overseeing the government’s rice-buying program by an extra 15 days from today, the commission said in a statement yesterday.

The baht fell 0.1 per cent from March 7 and was little changed today at 32.342 per dollar, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It has weakened 3.7 per cent since the anti-government demonstrations began on Oct 31, the worst performance among Asia’s 11 most-traded currencies after Malaysia’s ringgit.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined three basis points this week to 6.55 per cent. The gauge fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, today.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/399846/three-year-bonds-advance-this-week-as-policy-rate-cut)
Title: Re: Baht climbs to three-month high
Post by: thaiga on March 19, 2014, 01:47:17 PM
The baht climbed to a three-month high on Tuesday after the caretaker government approved lifting the state of emergency on Wednesday.

The baht climbed to a three-month high after the Cabinet approved the measure.

The currency rose for a fourth day, gaining 0.4% to 32.115 per dollar as of 1:50 p.m. in Bangkok. It touched 32.104 earlier Tuesday, the strongest level since Dec 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The baht has advanced 1.1% in four days, paring its net loss to 3.1% since the anti-government protests began on Oct 31.

"Easing political concern in Thailand is providing support for the baht," said Tsutomu Soma, manager of the fixed-income business unit at Rakuten Securities Inc in Tokyo. "The baht also benefited from improving global risk sentiment as the fading threat of conflict in Ukraine helped boost stocks."

Thailand's economy may record zero growth or contract this year should the political unrest continue, Thai Chamber of Commerce chairman Isara Vongkusolkit said at a news conference on Tuesday. Expansion is forecast at 2% to 3% in 2014 if a new government can be formed in the third quarter, he said.

Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Yukol Limlamthong said the emergency decree, which was imposed on Jan 22, would be ended Wednesday, three days before it was scheduled to expire automatically on March 23.

Authorities will continue to use the Internal Security Act to control anti-government protests, he said. Thailand's benchmark share gauge rallied for a fourth day after the Standard & Poors Index of US stocks rose 1% on Monday.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 6.5%.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 rose three basis points to 3.69%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield reached 3.65% on Monday, the lowest level since June 2013.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/400493/baht-climbs-to-three-month-high)
Title: Re: Baht weakens most since January
Post by: thaiga on March 20, 2014, 04:18:15 PM
Baht weakens most since January

Thailand's baht fell the most since January and bonds dropped on Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comment that interest rates could be raised "around six months" after the central bank ends its stimulus program.

The Fed announced another US$10 billion reduction of its monthly bond buying on Wednesday to $55 billion and said the purchases could end this fall. The Bank of Thailand reduced its key rate on March 12 to 2% from 2.25%after prolonged political unrest curbed local demand and hurt tourism. The Southeast Asian nation has room to ease policy further and whether the Bank of Thailand will cut or not depends on economic data, spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said March 14.

"The prospect of a US rate hike is dollar-positive and weighs on emerging-market currencies," said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and foreign-exchange strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. "With lingering political unrest that hurts growth, there remains speculation Thailand may cut further."

The baht slumped 0.6%, the most since Jan 2, to 32.343 per dollar as of 8.37am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It rallied 1% over the previous five days. The currency has weakened 3.8% since anti-government protests began on Oct 31. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, was little changed at 6.52%.

Sluggish growth

The Constitutional Court will meet on Friday to consider a petition seeking to annul the country's Feb 2 general election, court president Charoon Intacharn told reporters in Bangkok on Wednesday. Demonstrators will continue protests until caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra gives up power, anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban told supporters this week.

Thailand's economy may record zero growth or contract this year should the unrest continue, Thai Chamber of Commerce Chairman Isara Vongkusolkit said March 18 in Bangkok. Expansion is forecast at 2% to 3% in 2014 if a new government can be formed in the third quarter, he said.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.7%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/400833/baht-weakens-most-since-january-after-fed-signals-rate-increase)

Yesterday it was The baht climbed to a three-month high, today Baht weakens most since January :uhm
Title: Re: A mixed picture for the baht
Post by: thaiga on March 21, 2014, 06:47:58 PM
Baht, bonds set for weekly slide

Thailand's baht was poised for its first weekly drop this month and bonds declined after the Federal Reserve said it may raise United States borrowing costs.

The currency fell the most since June on Thursday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said interest rates may be increased about six months after the monetary authority ends its stimulus program later this year. The baht touched a three-month high on March 19, a day after Thailand’s cabinet approved ending the state of emergency that was imposed on Jan 22. The decree was lifted before it was set to expire on March 23.

"We have a mixed picture for the baht," said Paisarn Lertkowit, a currency trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl in the city. "The Fed comments should be dollar positive, but there was some easing concern among offshore investors about Thai politics that led to some baht demand."

The Thai currency fell 0.4% from a week ago, the biggest five-day decline since the period ended Feb 21, to 32.40 per US dollar as of 8.35am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency rose 0.2% Friday and touched a three-month high of 32.09 on March 19.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 19 basis points this week and seven basis points on Friday to 6.44%.

The Fed announced another $10 billion reduction of its monthly bond buying this week, to $55 billion, and said the purchases could end in the second half of this year.

Election decision

Thailand's Constitution Court is to decide whether to annul the Feb 2 general election on Friday. Results of the vote have not been tallied because protesters blocked candidates from registering and people from voting in some parts of Bangkok and the country's southern provinces, leaving the government in a caretaker role.

A prolonged political deadlock in Thailand lasting into the second half of the year may prompt a reassessment of its rating outlook, Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, said in an interview in Singapore on Thursday.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 rose nine basis points this week to 3.8%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield increased two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, on Friday.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/401014/thailand-baht-bonds-set-for-weekly-slide-on-fed-rate-outlook)
Title: Re: Though the baht is weakening.........
Post by: thaiga on March 29, 2014, 10:17:45 AM
BoT: Baht just fine

Though the baht is weakening, the currency movement is in line with regional currency depreciation because of external factors prompting foreign investors to shift capital from emerging markets, says a senior Bank of Thailand official.

Chantavarn Sucharitakul, the assistant governor overseeing the financial markets operations group, said foreign investors had priced in domestic political factors, so the outflow is mainly due to the US Federal Reserve’s additional tapering of its monetary stimulus and political tensions in the Crimean peninsula.

Since the Fed’s recent announcement of its asset purchase pullback to US$55 billion from $85 billion, signs showing a faster recovery than expected in the US are driving the weakening trend.

The baht has been stable for the most part and its minimal movement reflects recent news developments both internally and externally, said Mrs Chantavarn.

Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen said the Fed’s monetary stimulus could end this fall, suggesting the US central bank could begin raising its interest rate six months after it halts its monthly bond-buying measure.

Foreign investors' move away from the Thai bourse has been in line with the movement of the SET, suggesting foreign investors are neither overweight nor underweight in their equities, said Mrs Chantavarn.

She said it is difficult to assess the outlook of the baht movement and capital flows as several factors are involved and news reports colour foreign investors' perceptions.

The financial market should be less volatile since pricing in the Fed’s continued tapering, she added.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/402092/bot-baht-just-fine)
Title: Re: Re: Baht volatility at three-month low
Post by: thaiga on April 04, 2014, 12:29:36 PM
A gauge of expected fluctuations in Thailand’s baht dropped to the lowest level since December as concern eased the nation’s political unrest will deteriorate.

The baht traded in a range of 32.20 and 32.60 per US dollar on all but five days in the past month as an emergency decree was lifted after anti-government protesters removed blockades at four main intersections in Bangkok on March 3.

A gauge of consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest since October 2001 as demonstrations that began on Oct. 31 weighed on spending.

“The political situation has stabilized lately and that limits the downside for the baht, but the unrest is not completely solved which will also put a cap on the upside,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and foreign-exchange strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. “The baht may remain quite directionless for the time being and volatility will probably remain stable.”

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the baht used to price options, dropped 27 basis points from a week ago to 6.03 percent as of 9 am. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge declined seven basis points today and reached 6 percent earlier, the lowest level since Dec 24. Thailand’s currency dropped 0.2 percent today to 32.537 per dollar, taking this week’s loss to 0.1 percent.

Thai voters went to the polls on March 30 to select half of the nation’s Senate, without facing opposition from protesters who derailed a general election on Feb 2 and have vowed to disrupt any future vote.

Court Petition

The nation’s Constitutional Court agreed on April 2 to accept a petition filed by a group of senators arguing that Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s decision to remove the National Security Council secretary-general from office in 2011 was an unconstitutional abuse of power. A lower court ruled last month that the transfer was unlawful. It said Yingluck would have 15 days to prepare her defence.

Government bonds fell this week. The yield on the 3.625 percent sovereign notes due June 2023 rose four basis points from a week ago to 3.73 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate declined one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, today.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/403416/baht-volatility-at-three-month-low)
Title: Re: Baht rises most in three weeks
Post by: thaiga on April 08, 2014, 03:13:12 PM
Thailand’s baht gained the most in more than three weeks and 10-year government bonds rose as data showed foreigners increased holdings of local debt.

The nation plans to issue 113 billion baht ($3.5 billion) of notes this quarter, compared with 138 billion baht a year earlier, official figures show.

The baht rose, tracking yesterday’s gains in some regional currencies, after US jobs data that trailed estimates pushed back the expected timetable for borrowing-cost increases. Thai officials will meet today to assess the possibility of setting a date for general elections.

Thailand’s currency appreciated 0.4% from April 4, the most since March 13, to 32.41 per dollar as of 11.08am in Bangkok, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. Global funds bought $440 million more Thai debt than they sold last week, the biggest inflow since the five-day period ended Oct 18, official data show.

“Demand and supply conditions are supportive of bonds,” said Toru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc in Tokyo. “There may be some purchases of Thai assets as the political situation remains calm, but I don’t see aggressive buying as the unrest is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.”

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected exchange-rate moves used to price options, fell 35 basis points to 5.74% from the end of last week and reached 5.73% earlier, the lowest level since November.

The Constitutional Court last month invalidated a February vote and the Election Commission said March 21 it may be at least three months before a new vote can be held, keeping Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government in caretaker mode.

Government bonds advanced. The yield on the 3.625% notes due June 2023 dropped two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, from April 4 to 3.67%, the lowest level since March 17, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/403999/baht-rises-most-in-three-weeks)
Title: Re: Baht shows weekly gain on inflows
Post by: thaiga on April 12, 2014, 12:45:25 PM
The baht had its biggest weekly advance in a month and government bonds rose as foreign funds pumped money into local assets on signs the political situation is stabilising.

Overseas investors have bought a net $604 million of Thai stocks and $1.1 billion of the country’s debt since the end of February as anti-government protesters removed blockades in Bangkok and authorities lifted an emergency decree. The baht has rallied in line with regional peers on the back of dollar weakness, Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said on Friday. The currency fell the most in more than two weeks today as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares slumped.

The baht rose 0.6% this week, the most since the five-day period ended March 7, to 32.29 per dollar as of 3.44pm in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It weakened 0.2% on Saturday after strengthening 0.8% over the previous three days and reaching a three-week high of 32.137 on Friday.

“Recent inflows of funds supported the baht amid easing political tension,” said Tsutomu Soma, manager of the fixed-income business unit at Rakuten Securities Inc in Tokyo. “As gains through yesterday were quite fast, it’s natural to see a correction before the weekend.”

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected exchange-rate moves used to price options, slumped 49 basis points this week to 5.6%. The gauge declined one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, on Saturday.

The National Economic & Social Development Board said on April 8 it may cut its 2014 expansion estimate for the country’s economy from the current range of 3% to 4% because of the impact from the political unrest that started in late October.

Government bonds rose for a third week. The yield on the 3.625 percent sovereign notes due June 2023 dropped 10 basis points from April 4 and two basis points today to 3.6 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the lowest since June.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/404673/baht-shows-weekly-gain-on-inflows)
Title: Re: Baht drops most in two months
Post by: thaiga on May 20, 2014, 11:15:48 AM
The baht dropped the most in two months

as the army imposed martial law nationwide after months of political turmoil that hurt the economy and led to Yingluck Shinawatra being ousted as prime minister.

The baht weakened as much as 0.6%, the biggest intra-day loss since March 20, before trading 0.3% lower on the day at 32.56 per dollar as of 8.45am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Five-year credit- default swaps protecting the nation’s debt against non-payment climbed to a one-month high of 127 basis points yesterday in New York, CMA prices show.

Martial law has been introduced to restore order and this is not a coup, Army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha said on local television, asking political groups to end protests that began in November and have led to violence that claimed 28 lives. Today’s move comes a day after government data showed gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter as demonstrations hurt production and tourism.

“Some foreign investors will dislike the martial law because it shows the situation is out of hand,” Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer at Krungsri Asset Management Co, which oversees about $7 billion in assets, said by phone. “The military’s intervention may force politicians to be more willing to go to the negotiating table now.”

The introduction of martial law is the army’s most direct involvement in the Southeast Asian nation’s politics since 2006, when then-premier Thaksin Shinawatra was removed in a coup. Thailand has been without a fully functioning government since December, when then-premier Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister, called snap elections in a bid to ease the unrest.

Elections derailed

A February poll was disrupted by anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban’s followers and the government and election officials were unable to schedule a new one before Yingluck was removed on May 7 after a court ruled she abused her power in office. Mr Suthep’s protesters have derailed plans for a July 20 election and the army had said previously it may use force to counter any escalation of violence.

Thailand’s “political crisis has dragged on for longer than expectations and relative to historical standards,” Alan Richardson, whose Samsung Asean Equity Fund beat 96% of peers tracked by Bloomberg in the past five years, said in a phone interview from Hong Kong. “We can see that the political crisis has affected economic and corporate fundamentals since the start of this year.”

GDP fell 0.6% in the first three months of 2014 compared with a year earlier, while the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0.4% increase. The benchmark SET Index of shares may slide to 1,200 and the baht could weaken to 34 in the “short term,” according to Mr Richardson. The index gained 0.4% on Monday to close at 1,410.63, the highest level since May 2.

bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/410740/baht-drops-most-in-two-months)
Title: Re: Thai Baht drops
Post by: thaiga on May 23, 2014, 01:41:34 PM
Thai Baht drops after announcement of coup

BANGKOK, 23 May 2014 (NNT) – Within half an hour of General Prayuth Chan-ocha's announcement of the declaration of the coup on national television yesterday (22 May 2014), the baht fell 0.3 percent against the U.S. dollar, down to 32.56 baht.

However the currency did not break recent lows, suggesting that some investors believe that the military's action could be a force in stabilizing the country.

Earlier this month, the currency hit its lowest point in three months at 32.63 per dollar. The baht, however, has still strengthened by 0.4 percent against the dollar this year.

NNT (http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5705230010001)
Title: Re: Baht rebounds fast after dip on news
Post by: thaiga on May 24, 2014, 11:59:18 AM
Baht rebounds fast after dip on news: BOT

Thursday 'panic' short-lived, currency bounces back; SET closes down 0.6%
Panic in the foreign-currency markets after Thursday's coup causes the baht to depreciate but the effect was short-lived, the Bank of Thailand said.

BOT spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said there was a mild panic initially that led to a weakening of the baht by 0.23 against the US dollar on Thursday but it soon bounced back.

"Some investors were uncertain about the coup situation at the start, so they had to protect themselves from risks, which is in the nature of investors and understandable, but it caused the baht to depreciate quite rapidly by 0.23. However, it bounced back after a short period of time," she said.

Roong said the currency yesterday morning was moving within the range of 32.48-32.57, which was not much different from its value before the coup. As of 6pm it was 32.64.

The baht was valued at 32.669 per dollar on Wednesday.

The SET Index yesterday dropped 0.60 per cent to close at 1,396.

"If there is a situation that causes the currency's value to change too rapidly, such as a continuous panic situation or if there is a currency movement that is not in line with the basic fundamentals of the economy, the BOT will have the duty to consider stepping in to take care of the stability of the financial market," Roong said.

She said the current stability in the financial market was based on a number of factors, including its ability to absorb political news. Some market players also believe that the coup could be a changing point from the chronic uncertainty of the past several months. "Thailand's financial market is deep and wide enough that there are variety of market players who can create a range of views and not flock in the same direction. Therefore it can be said that the country's financial market is quite stable, but stability does not mean no movement."

Roong said that after the news of the coup came out, government bond yield increased slightly, by 4-5 basis points, but fell almost immediately to where it was before the Army's seizure of power. This showed that investors in the bonds were not panicked by the situation.

As for the movement in the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday, Roong said some investors had sold and closed down their status to wait and see how the political situation develops, and the index fell by 20.75 points in the morning.

She said the stock market would probably experience some capital outflow but not much since there was little change in prices.

The SET Index yesterday dropped 8.37 points to close at 1,396.84. SET chairman Sathit Limpongpan said the morning session saw foreign net sales of Bt3.6 billion while individual investors purchased a net Bt4 billion, indicating that the latter had confidence in the market and understood the present political situation.

The SET will work closely with the Association of Thai Securities Companies to provide more information to foreign investors that Thai-listed firms have solid fundamentals, he said.

SET president Charamporn Jotikasthira said the market had experienced several crises over the years, so it had gained strength to weather each new one. He also noted that foreign investors' sales in the two days following the declaration of martial law were worth Bt11 billion, not a huge amount. Foreign investors' sales were worth Bt200 billion last year.

According to Fitch Ratings, the military takeover is not in itself a negative sovereign-ratings trigger. The key factor for Thailand's sovereign credit profile is the speed at which the country can move towards installing an effective, fully functioning government without sparking a further escalation in political instability.

If a process for political stabilisation is not in place by early in the second half of this year, then the rating agency would expect more lasting damage to the economy that could ultimately be negative for Thailand's sovereign credit.

Fitch expects to lower its forecast of 2.5-per-cent growth for 2014 for Thailand on the back of the political uncertainty and weak first-quarter data showing that gross domestic product contracted by 0.6 per cent year on year. The government has already cut its own growth forecast to a range of 1.5-2.5 per cent, from an initial 3-4 per cent.

The economy is reasonably well positioned to rebound quickly from short negative shocks, it said.

Suchart Thanathitiphan, executive director of the Thai Bond Market Association, said the coup could put negative pressure on the stock market rather than the bond market, given the different types of investors in each.

No controls have been put on financial transactions and businesses, and people continue to live their normal lives, he said.

Foreign investors in the Thai bond market are relatively confident with the country's economic fundamentals and the coup should provide more ways out and allow foreign investors to gain confidence, he said.

In the four days following the declaration of the martial law on Tuesday, foreign investors sold Bt600 million worth of Thai bonds on Monday and Bt2 billion on Tuesday before purchasing Bt2 billion on Wednesday and Bt3.5 billion on Thursday.

"Upgrading in response to the coup may have some impact on the bond market, but not much, as it may have on the stock market," Suchart said.

"The situation could slow down purchases or prompt sales in the short term before a buy-back. When everything eases, there's a chance for foreign capital to return."

bangkokpost (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-rebounds-fast-after-dip-on-news-BOT-30234471.html)
Title: Re: Baht stable this week
Post by: thaiga on May 30, 2014, 11:14:52 AM
Baht stable this week, down slightly on external factors, BOT says

The baht has remained stable despite weakening a little compared with last week on external factors, the Bank of Thailand says.
BOT spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said that between Monday and yesterday morning the currency had moved within the range of 32.56-32.73 per US dollar. Its average value is lower than last week as the US economy and its currency have strengthened.

"Many of the US economic indicators are better than expected, such as the amount of durable goods ordered and the relaxed monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar. Therefore, the baht and other currencies in this region have slightly weakened when compared with the US dollar," she said.

The baht closed yesterday at 32.97 per dollar. Roong said internal factors had no effect on the currency, bond or stock markets even though foreign investors had continued to be net sellers of bonds and stocks, the amounts were not as critical as in the first day after the coup. At that time, some panicked investors sold most of their Thai assets to reduce risks.

"Most foreign investors are still waiting to see the developments of political reform and the economic stimulation process," she said.

As for domestic investors, Roong said their confidence level was still sound and they were net buyers in the stock market, which would help bring the SET Index back to the same level as before the coup.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand closed yesterday at 1,408.51, up 5.72 points from Wednesday.

Five-year credit default swaps protecting Thai government debt against non-payment fell from 133 basis points on May 22 to 122 on Wednesday, the same level as in mid-May. Roong said the drop showed that political factors had only a short-term effect on foreign investors and now they were more relaxed about the situation.

bangkokpost (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-stable-this-week-down-slightly-on-external-fa-30234978.html)
Title: Re: Baht gains on spending pledge
Post by: thaiga on June 07, 2014, 01:40:31 PM
KUALA LUMPUR — The baht was the best-performing Asian currency this week as Thailand’s junta pledged to boost spending to revive economic growth. Indonesia’s rupiah led losses after the country reported a surprise trade deficit.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, was steady for the week, erasing a decline after the European Central Bank cut interest rates to negative on Thursday, potentially spurring fund flows to emerging-market assets. Thailand’s military administration, which took over in a May 22 coup, promised to step up infrastructure development and increase investment in areas adjacent to the nation’s borders.

“The perception is that the new Thailand government has provided stability and improved conditions for growth,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. The ECB’s stimulus programme is “positive for high-yielding currencies such as those in Asia,” he said.

The baht appreciated 0.9% this week, the most since February, to 32.560 per dollar as of 3.36pm in Bangkok on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Philippine peso rose 0.2% to 43.65, while the rupiah fell 1.3% to 11,834 and Malaysia’s ringgit declined 0.1% to 3.2150.

Foreign funds pumped $523 million baht into Thai stocks and local-currency sovereign bonds in the first four days of the week, exchange data show. The junta plans to speed up investment in a dual-track train project and promote economic development zones near borders with Malaysia, Myanmar and Laos, ACM Prajin Juntong, the head of economic affairs, told reporters in Bangkok on June 1.
Stocks rally

The ECB became the first major monetary authority to use negative deposit rates to spur consumption, and said it would offer liquidity to lenders to boost credit growth. The euro rose against the greenback after the announcement and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares headed for its highest close since October on Friday.

Inflation in the Philippines accelerated to 4.5% in May, the fastest since 2011 and exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg for a rate of 4.2%, data showed on Thursday. That spurred speculation the central bank will raise borrowing costs at its June 19 meeting.

The rupiah had a third weekly drop after Indonesian authorities reported a $1.96-billion trade deficit in April, the biggest shortfall in nine months. The current-account gap may almost double this quarter from the previous period, central bank Governor Agus Martowardojo said in Jakarta yesterday.
‘Rupiah weakness’

“Our view is for more rupiah weakness against the dollar,’ said Mika Martumpal, treasury research and strategy head at PT Bank CIMB Niaga in Jakarta. ‘‘We still see current-account deficit narrowing from 2013, but the second quarter will prove to be a challenging time.’’

Elsewhere in Asia, India’s rupee slipped 0.1% this week to 59.185 per dollar and China’s yuan declined 0.05% to 6.2502. Taiwan’s dollar retreated 0.1% to T$30.08, while South Korea’s won was little changed at 1,020.45 through Thursday, with financial markets in the country closed on Friday for a public holiday. The Vietnamese dong dropped 0.1% to 21,185.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/414059/baht-gains-on-spending-pledge)
Title: Re: Thai Baht gains 1.3 percent first half of this year
Post by: thaiga on July 15, 2014, 05:44:12 PM
BOT: Thai Baht gains 1.3 percent first half of this year

BANGKOK, 15 July 2014 (NNT) – The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has revealed that the Thai baht gained 1.3 percent during the first half of this year, while the outflow by foreign investors was valued at about US 3 billion dollars.

Chantawan Sucharitkul, BOT Assistant Governor, noted that Thai baht moved in line with other regional currencies and the global economy during the first half of this year. At the beginning of the year, the Thai baht was weaker due to the political crisis before becoming stronger in February. Later the Thai baht became weaker again in May. Then, from May 22 onwards, after the military took power, the baht has been strong due to the more stable political situation.

Besides, the flow of foreign investors’ funds returned in June. The Thai bourse has gained 14.4 percent since the end of last year. Foreign investors sold 41 billion baht in the Thai stock market. Foreign investors sold 42 billion baht in the bond market, and now holds bonds accounting for 9.7 %, a 10.34 % decline since the end of the previous year. In addition, yields of government bonds decreased 17-34 bps due to the economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, from the BOT’s point of view, the Thai baht is moving in an acceptable range, not fluctuating too much. Economic recovery and progress in forming a government will be positive for the Thai baht. As for moves to make the Yuan a major global currency, the BOT considers that it will be beneficial for Thai entrepreneurs engaged in border trade with China. As well, BOT diversifies its reserves in various currencies. So, it should not affect the Thai baht.

NNT (http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5707150010005)
Title: Re: Baht set for fifth weekly gain
Post by: thaiga on July 25, 2014, 11:55:46 AM
Thailand’s baht was headed for a fifth weekly gain, its longest winning streak in more than a year, as overseas investors pumped US$2 billion into the local bond market in the last four days.

The currency strengthened 0.8% from a week ago to 31.876 per dollar as of 9.39am in Bangkok, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It declined 0.1% today. Global investors have been net buyers of Thai debt on each of the last 20 days, boosting their holdings by $5.3 billion in that time, according to figures from the Thai Bond Market Association. They also pumped $700 million into Thai equities during the period.

“Large money inflows in the domestic bond market have accelerated the baht’s strengthening,” Kampon Adireksombat, an economist at Tisco Securities Co. in Bangkok, said by phone. “Most investors are very optimistic about the Thai economic outlook from the government’s investment policies.”

Thailand’s economy, which shrank in the first quarter, can return to growth rates of between 5% and 6% as the military government’s policies help “jump-start” expansion, Pridiyathorn Devakula, a former finance minister and an adviser to junta leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha, said on July 21. On July 15, the National Council for Peace and Order, a group of military leaders, approved a budget starting Oct 1 with a 2% increase in investment in infrastructure projects.

The yield on sovereign bonds due April 2024 fell six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, this week to 3.77%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It dropped to a two- month low of 3.68% on July 22.

Reversal Signal

The baht may retreat to between 32.50 and 33 per dollar by the end of this year as the pickup in domestic demand is likely to fall short of market expectations, Tisco’s Kampon said. The baht’s 14-day relative strength index was 29, holding for a fifth day below the 30 level that suggests to some traders that the currency is poised to weaken.

Thailand’s military leaders on July 22 delayed a decision on the transport ministry’s infrastructure investment plan to next week. The government said last month it plans to spend 2.4 trillion baht ($75 billion) to build and expand networks such as highways, railways and airports between 2015 and 2022.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/422447/baht-set-for-fifth-weekly-gain)
Title: Re: Growth optimism boosts baht
Post by: thaiga on August 01, 2014, 01:19:43 PM
Growth optimism boosts baht, bonds

The Thai baht posted its biggest two-month gain since October as overseas investors increased purchases of the nation’s assets on optimism the military government will revive economic growth.

The junta, which took control in a May 22 coup, approved an infrastructure investment plan on Tuesday that will include the construction of new railways, mass transit systems in Bangkok and nationwide highways. The economy, which shrank in the first quarter, may expand 5% in 2015 from about 2% this year on higher spending and a rebound in exports and tourism, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday.

The currency appreciated 1% in July to 32.128 per dollar as of 4.30pm, adding to June’s 1.2% gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached an eight-month high of 31.74 on July 23. Global funds bought a net $5.05 billion of local debt this month through Wednesday, the biggest inflow since February 2012, Thai Bond Market Association data show.

“There is room for more foreign fund inflows because Thailand’s economic outlook has turned more upbeat,” said Pongtharin Sapayanon, a fixed-income fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management. “Foreigners have raised their positions in Thai financial assets after selling them off during the political deadlock.”

The SET Index of Thai shares rose 1.1% in July for a sixth straight month of gains as overseas investors pumped a net $460 million into the nation’s equities through July 30, halting two months of outflows. It dropped 1% on Thursday.

In the local bond market, 10-year notes posted the first monthly gain in three. The yield on sovereign debt due in April 2024 fell 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, to 3.74%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached a two-month low of 3.68% on July 22.

"ING Groep NV predicts the yield will drop to 3.4% by year-end," Singapore-based economist Prakash Sakpal wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/423467/growth-optimism-boosts-baht-bonds)
Title: Re: Baht, bonds rise for 3rd month
Post by: thaiga on August 29, 2014, 03:51:02 PM
The Thai baht rose for a third month and bonds gained as the military-led government stoked an economic recovery, spurring inflows to the nation’s stocks.

The currency appreciated 0.5% in August to 31.95 per dollar as of 10:17am in Bangkok, taking its three-month advance to 2.7%, the best among 24 emerging-market exchange rates tracked by Bloomberg. Thailand attracted a net $76 million into equities during the month, adding to July's $427 million, stock exchange data show.

National Council for Peace and Order leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha has boosted state spending and restored political stability since a May 22 coup. Gross domestic product increased 0.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier, after contracting 0.5% in the previous three months. While the baht has rallied, gains may be subdued ahead of current-account data today that's forecast to show the surplus more than halved in July.

"As the military junta is making progress in revitalizing the economy after disruptions in the first quarter, we've seen a return of portfolio inflows, helping the baht recover some of the earlier losses," Jessica Liang, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd, wrote in a research note Thursday. "However, we remain cautious on the baht given its weak current-account cushion and uncertain political outlook."

Trade Data

The Bank of Thailand was expected to report today that the current-account surplus narrowed to $620 million in July from $1.84 billion in the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The baht was little changed today and for the week.

Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy may expand 5% in the next four quarters, central bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on Aug 27. Credit Suisse Group AG raised its 2015 growth estimate to 4.5% from 3.9%, Santitarn Sathirathai, a Singapore-based economist, wrote in a research note yesterday.

Overseas investors bought a net $181 million of the nation's debt this week through yesterday, according to Thai Bond Market Association data. The yield on the 3.625% government notes due in June 2023 fell 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 3.46% in August, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. That adds to the 17 basis point drop in the past two months. It declined two basis points today.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, rose three basis points today and 14% basis points this month to 4.45%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/429416/baht-bonds-rise-for-3rd-month)
Title: Re: Baht gains on US Fed-induced inflows
Post by: thaiga on September 17, 2014, 01:21:51 PM
The baht gained for a second day before the Bank of Thailand’s interest-rate meeting as speculation the US Federal Reserve will keep rates low for an extended period boosted demand for emerging-market assets.

The Thai central bank will hold borrowing costs at 2% today, according to all 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on Wednesday ahead of the decision at 2.30pm.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major counterparts, fell the most since June yesterday as the Fed started its two-day policy meeting.

“The baht is more stable along with other regional currencies as concern about an increase in US interest rates eases,” said Thammarat Kittisiripat, an analyst at TMB Bank Plc. “The central bank will maintain the benchmark interest rate at this low level for the rest of this year as the domestic economy still has a very slow recovery.”

The baht rose 0.1% to 32.214 per dollar as of 9.45am in Bangkok after earlier climbing as much as 0.2% to 32.184, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency advanced 0.1% on Tuesday, halting a six-day run of losses.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, was little changed at 4.96%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge has climbed 15 basis points this week.

Overseas investors bought a net US$37.7 million of the nation’s debt and equities on Tuesday, according to data from the stock exchange and Thai Bond Market Association.

Bond Market

The economy will improve next quarter and the government will focus on boosting exports and increasing the value of products, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha, who is also the junta leader, said Tuesday after a weekly Cabinet meeting. The appointed National Legislative Assembly also passed a budget bill calling for 2.575 trillion baht ($80 billion) in total spending for the fiscal year starting Oct. 1.

Government bonds of two, five and 10 years were little changed before the rate decision. The yield on the 5.4% notes due in July 2016 was at 2.48%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, in the past three weeks. It reached 2.46% on Sept 12, the lowest level since June 20.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/432715/baht-gains-on-us-fed-induced-inflows-before-thai-interest-rate-decision)
Title: Re: Baht is expected to remain weakened next week
Post by: thaiga on October 04, 2014, 06:23:12 PM
BANGKOK, Oct 4 --
The Thai baht is projected to remain weakened during next week after it slipped to 32.50 baht per US dollar on Friday, its weakest position in the past three months, according to a report issued by Kasikorn Research Centre.
 
The Centre has projected that the Thai baht is expected to move between 32.35 – 32.65 baht per dollar next week as traders cautiously watch dollar movements early in the week while they take into account the latest U.S. employment data.
 
A report issued by the US Labor Department on Friday said US jobless rate declined to a six-year low of 5.9 per cent in September and that employers hired more workers than projected.
 
The unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since July 2008, down from 6.1 per cent.
 
Traders are also closely monitoring the US Federal Reserve and the number of unemployed applying for weekly welfare so that they could assess the direction of US interest rate, according to the Centre report.
 
The baht remained weak throughout this week due to buying of US dollar before the end of the third quarter and on concerns over the ongoing unrest situation in Hong Kong which has already depressed Asian currencies, it said.
 
Also, the baht was weak in line with net selling in the bond market and Thai equities by foreign investors while the greenback strengthened late in the week as investors adjusted their positions, the Centre added.

MCOT online news (http://mcot-web.mcot.net/9ent/site/view/id/542fa2e9be0470592e8b45e9#.VC_X9t29tkg)
Title: Re: Baht falls on economic outlook
Post by: thaiga on November 04, 2014, 03:07:43 PM
The baht declined for a 10th day, the longest losing streak since September 2011, and bonds gained on concern the economy’s outlook is deteriorating.

The baht declined 0.1% to 32.679 per dollar as of 9.55am, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.73 earlier, a five-month low.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, rose 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 4.84%.

Consumer prices rose 1.48% last month from a year earlier, the slowest pace in a year, the Commerce Ministry reported on Monday. That compares with the median estimate of 1.6% in a Bloomberg survey. The Finance Ministry cut its 2014 economic growth forecast last week to 1.2-1.7% from a previous estimate of 2%.

“Yesterday’s inflation data continue to show a weaker economic backdrop,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, a Singapore-based strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. “There’s still a question of how strong growth is going to be in Thailand.”

Five-year bonds advanced for a third day.

The yield on government notes due June 2019 slipped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.59%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

One-year interest-rate swaps dropped two basis points to 1.86%, below the central bank’s benchmark 2% policy rate. The contracts declined to 1.85% on Oct 16, the lowest since June, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/441357/baht-falls-on-economic-outlook)
Title: Re: Baht's weakening in line with other regional currencies
Post by: thaiga on December 09, 2014, 10:42:43 PM
Baht's weakening in line with other regional currencies, BOT says

The Bank of Thailand says the weakening of the baht is in line with the depreciations of other currencies in the region caused by market speculation that the US Federal Reserve will be able to increase its policy interest rate faster than expected.
The latest market consensus is that the United States will increase its policy rate in the third quarter of 2015.

The US announcement on Friday of a better-than-expected increase in the non-farm payroll in November has led to a strengthening of the dollar, BOT Assistant Governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul said. The payroll increased by 321,000 positions, against expectations of only 230,000.

Chantavarn said the baht was currently in the middle of the park when compared with other currencies in the region.

Asset outflows remain normal, with foreigners still net-sellers in the capital market. In the first 11 months of the year, they net-sold around US$1 billion. Currently foreigners hold 10 per cent of Thai government bonds, she said.

According to the Bloomberg website, the baht was at 33.074 per US dollar as of 5.45pm yesterday.

Supavud Saicheua, director of Phatra Capital, said the baht could reach 34 next year on the strengthening of the dollar.

Bangkokpost (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Bahts-weakening-in-line-with-other-regional-curren-30249380.html)
Title: Re: baht has moved in line with regional currencies
Post by: thaiga on December 17, 2014, 06:57:17 PM
Thailand’s Bonds Fall as Central Bank Keeps Key Rate Unchanged

Thailand’s 2023 government bonds fell for a third day after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged amid a selloff in emerging-market assets.

Sixteen of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the Bank of Thailand would keep its benchmark rate at 2 percent today, while seven forecast a 25-basis-point cut. Overseas investors have pulled $608 million from Thai stocks this month as crude oil’s slide to a five-year low and a plunge in the Russian ruble to a record deterred risk-taking.

The yield on government bonds due June 2023 climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.80 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That took this week’s increase to 10 basis points. The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET) of shares rose 1.2 percent, halting a six-day drop. The baht was steady at 32.95 per dollar.

“The central bank continues to highlight the slow pace of the recovery and appears willing to cut rates in the coming quarters if growth remains weak,” Barclays Plc analysts including Rahul Bajoria wrote in a research note. “We believe the balance of risks is towards the BoT providing further monetary accommodation in the first quarter, although this would be contingent on global financial stability.”

The baht has fallen 1.6 percent this quarter, declining along with 22 of the 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Federal Reserve may signal U.S. rate increases for 2015 after a policy meeting that ends today.

The Bank of Thailand has no plan to impose measures to limit fund outflows, Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul told reporters in Bangkok yesterday. No unusual capital outflows have been detected and the baht has moved in line with regional currencies, he said.

bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/thailand-s-bonds-fall-with-baht-before-central-bank-rate-meeting.html)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on April 23, 2015, 02:00:08 PM
BOT admits Thai baht continued to appreciate

BANGKOK, 23 April 2015, (NNT) - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has admitted that the Thai baht has recently appreciated, due to under-performing economic figures in the United States causing the dollar to depreciate.

BOT Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul stated that Asian currencies are also experiencing depreciation due to country-specific factors. He said these elements will be further explored during a meeting between the BOT and the Monetary Policy Committee on April 29.

However, he said that he believed Thailand’s economy in the second and third quarters would improve from the first quarter.

The National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand (NESDB) has forecast three percent growth in the first quarter of 2015. Mr. Prasarn has pointed out that the NESDB’s projection has two implications.

The governor explained that if the figure is compared to the same period last year, then it is considered high growth. However, if the figure is compared to the previous quarter, then growth is minimal.

NNT (http://thainews.prd.go.th/CenterWeb/NewsEN/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5804230010005)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on April 25, 2015, 07:06:45 AM
On UK Forex the interbank rate showed Baht 49.4 to the GBP at close yesterday. Good news. More please.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on April 28, 2015, 07:10:58 AM
Baht 49.6 to GBP. More again please !
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: jivvy on April 28, 2015, 08:30:47 AM

my UK pension  came yesterday @ 48.29 bahts to the pound :(
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: thaiga on April 28, 2015, 02:13:32 PM
Yes roger Good news. More please.

Buying Rates    Selling Rates  bangkokbank

  48.86            50.39    

So i've been told, you can open a pound account, then when you think the time is right, change up whatever you need.

The way uk has been performing well enuff said........

The euro

Buying Rates    Selling Rates

 34.91            36.12

I dread to think what you get at the airport.
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on April 29, 2015, 05:16:32 PM
Baht 50.4 to GBP on my screen today !
Onwards and upwards - 75 would be nice.
Title: Re: Baht has biggest weekly loss
Post by: thaiga on April 30, 2015, 06:16:04 PM
Baht has biggest weekly loss

The baht dropped, capping its biggest weekly loss since 2013, as the Bank of Thailand eased curbs on fund outflows a day after unexpectedly cutting interest rates.

The central bank will raise limits on foreign-currency deposits at domestic banks and on overseas property investments, assistant governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul told a briefing on Thursday. It will also allow local investors to invest directly overseas and non-residents will be able to borrow more baht from local banks, he said.

“The central bank’s new currency measures and interest-rate reduction will accelerate the baht’s weakness faster than the market had expected,” Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, an economist at Kasikorn Research, said by phone. “The strong currency makes it harder for exporters.”

MORE HERE: Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/547035/baht-has-biggest-weekly-loss)

I can hear roger shouting from here,comon the pound. there have been seven movements today @ bangkokbank

Buying Rates    Selling Rates

50.09    £££££      51.70   


36.38      €€€€€   37.64
Title: Re: Thailand takes a hammer to the baht
Post by: thaiga on May 06, 2015, 02:06:03 PM
Thailand takes a hammer to the baht

 Thailand's baht has long out-muscled regional peers, but amid a stumbling economy, the central bank has pulled the plug on supporting the currency.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) last week sent a triple whammy to the markets: In a surprise move, it cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis-points to 1.5 percent. In its statement, the BOT mentioned its concerns about the continued strength of the baht. That was followed up with the easing of some of the country's capital controls, which will allow more funds to flow out of the country.

LOTS MORE HERE: cnbc (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102647724)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Taman Tun on May 06, 2015, 04:19:19 PM
Oh s*it, I just took a Contract in THB. But as Harold Wilson once said " The pound in your pocket..."  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-IHVQU9BSks
Title: Re: Pound jumps
Post by: thaiga on May 08, 2015, 01:22:34 PM

Buying Rates    Selling Rates

50.09    £££££      51.70   

Pound jumps

                                  Buying Rates    Selling Rates
                   
GBP    United Kingdom    50.10       51.71  7/5/2015   

GBP    United Kingdom    51.08       52.72  8/5/2015   
   
The pound has has increased by almost 1 bht overnight.    @bangkokbank
   
Pound jumps above $1.54 after election exit poll puts Conservatives in the lead

The pound jumped to its highest level in a week on Thursday after a closely watched exit poll from the U.K. general election showed surprisingly strong support for David Cameron’s Conservative Party.

marketwatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pound-jumps-above-154-after-election-exit-poll-puts-conservatives-in-the-lead-2015-05-07)
Title: Re: Baht sinks to weakest level since 2009
Post by: thaiga on May 12, 2015, 02:29:11 PM
Baht sinks to weakest level since 2009

The baht, Asia’s worst-performing currency of the past month, sank to its weakest level since September 2009 as global funds reduced holdings of the nation’s bonds.

The baht fell 0.2% to 33.759 a dollar as of 9.43am in Bangkok, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency has lost 3.6% in the past month. A gauge of dollar strength climbed 0.4% on Monday as investors bet the Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates this year while global peers retain unprecedented easing.

FULL ARTICLE: Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/559063/baht-sinks-to-weakest-level-since-2009)
Title: Re: Baht to remain volatile for now
Post by: thaiga on May 22, 2015, 10:37:51 AM
Baht to remain volatile for now, BOT warns

THE BAHT will continue to be volatile, the Bank of Thailand has warned, suggesting that business operators keep guarding against foreign-exchange risks.
Meanwhile markets are keeping an eye on the monetary policies of major economies and the baht's depreciation will help reduce Thailand's competitive disadvantages, the central bank said.

Vachira Arromdee, senior director of the Financial Markets Department at the BOT, said the Thai currency would tend to con-tinue its volatility in the next periods, given internal and external factors.

Markets are still watching for |the United States' likely interest-|rate increase, and monetary stimulus in Japan and the European Union.

Markets are still concerned over China's economic slowdown as that could affect exports, which have contracted in Asia since the beginning of the year.

Given uncertainties over the global economic recovery and its fragility, there remains possibility for two-way directions and business operators should shield themselves against foreign-exchange risks, Vachira said.

Since the beginning of the year, the baht had been appreciating against the currencies of Thailand's trading partners and competitors partly because of drops in global oil prices. In March, however, the Thai currency started moving with volatility in two directions, following the country's economic and monetary-policy movements, US moves and economic situations across the globe.

Vachira noted that most US |economic figures had been weak of late, prompting the US dollar's depreciation against regional currencies in this region, including the baht.

This month, the baht has moved in a range of 33.18-33.88 per US dollar, and since the beginning of the year, it has depreciated by about 2 per cent. Given such rapid changes, the baht's volatility rate rose from 3-4 per cent to 6-7 per cent. However, that is still lower than the currency volatility seen in other countries in the region.

Exporters see relief..........

FULL ARTICLE: The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-to-remain-volatile-for-now-BOT-warns-30260653.html)
Title: Re: Baht continues downward trend
Post by: thaiga on June 04, 2015, 03:32:54 PM
Baht continues downward trend

The downward trend of the Thai baht continues on the back of US dollar rally.

As of 2.25pm, the baht was at 33.74 per dollar, from yesterday close of 33.64. It recently fell to the six-year low at 33.78-79. The greenback has also strengthened against other major currencies as well as the currencies in Asean.

Yesterday, the dollar was above 13,000 Indonesian rupiah, the level unseen since 1998.

The baht has fallen sharply since the Bank of Thailand cut the policy rates while the central bank governor signalled the bias towards a weaker curreny, to revive the domestic economy.

Many currency strategists predicted the dollar upswing would start next month on expectations that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will set the stage for a hike in the third quarter at the upcoming policy meeting.

The Fed has said that a rate rise, which most economists expect will come in September, will be dependent on improving economic data. Friday’s employment report could provide a spark if new jobs created in May exceed the 225,000 market consensus.

"The onus on economic data to surprise sharply to the upside over the next few weeks is fairly high, else the Fed may be unable to prepare the market at the June FOMC for hikes commencing in the third quarter," analysts at Barclays wrote in a note.

The US currency is up more than 20 per cent since last summer.

What could have a big impact is a resolution to the stand-off between Greece and the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. Currency speculators have been long dollars and short euros in recent days as worries over a potential Greece default have risen.

In the latest Reuters poll, forecasters have moderately upgraded their expectations of the euro, although they expect the common-currency to trade lower in the coming twelve months.

The euro is expected to fall to $1.05 in six months and further to $1.04 in a year.

But the number of analysts who forecast the euro to trade at or below parity against the dollar has fallen - from 22 in April, 19 in May to 15 in the current poll.

The poll also showed strategists were confident that sterling will be less vulnerable to a dollar rally.

Although the consensus that the pound will weaken to $1.50 in six months and $1.51 in a year, from $1.53 currently, this represents a significantly stronger set of forecasts when compared with the May poll.

After the centre-right Conservative party unexpectedly won an overall majority in May’s election, easing political uncertainty, a majority of the common contributors raised their forecasts for the pound from last month’s poll.

The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-continues-downward-trend-30261587.html)
Title: Re: Baht gains slightly after Fed keeps US policy rate steady
Post by: thaiga on June 19, 2015, 12:39:55 PM
Baht gains slightly after Fed keeps US policy rate steady

The baht strengthened slightly after the US Federal Reserve decided to maintain its policy interest rate.
The Thai currency gained by 0.9 per cent yesterday, to 33.59 against the US dollar, after closing at 33.62 on Wednesday.

"The US dollar depreciated after the Fed's meeting, which has contributed to the slight appreciation of the baht, but the movement is normal and is in line with other currencies in the region," said Bank of Thailand spokesman Chirathep Senivongs Na Ayudhya.

Kasikorn Research managing director Charl Kengchon said Thailand would briefly escape the pressure from potential capital outflows. The baht movement would mainly be influenced by US economic indicators, he added.

Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday said the interest-rate decision was still up in the air and that she wanted "more decisive evidence" that the US labour market was healing, and that wages would increase beyond their current "subdued pace".

While an increase in the Fed funds rate from the current level of 0-0.25 per cent is anticipated in September, the Fed lowered its 2015 economic growth forecast for the US economy to 1.8-2.0 per cent versus the range of 2.3-2.7 per cent that was projected earlier.

Tim Leelahaphan, Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) economist, said the comments Yellen made after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were "less hawkish than expected" but the securities firm maintains that the Fed rate increase will lift off in September at the earliest.

"The FOMC has revised down the US economic projection and it has revised down the path of the rate increase, while Yellen has also commented that its decision on the interest rate would be data-dependent, so the overall comments seem to be toned down," he said.

Maybank expects a 50-basis-points increase in 2015 and 100 basis points in 2016, and the momentum of the increase will be in a "go-stop-go" motion. The US policy interest rate has been in the range of 0-0.25 per cent since 2008.

Izumi Devalier, an economist at HSBC, said the important thing regarding the Fed rate increase was how quick it would be and where it ended up, and there was still a lot of uncertainty there.

Rate hike expected in Dec

"We expected the Fed to raise the interest rate in December, but in a very gradual manner, and that should be good for Asia's economy, as a very gradual rate normalisation in the United States means that there will be less volatility in Asia," she said.

HSBC expects an increase of 25 basis points this year and 50 basis points next year.

One risk that people should be keeping an eye on is a "very sharp and abrupt steepening" of the US long-term bond yield curve as the yield curve is quite flat. The short-term interest rate is zero and the 10-year yield is fluctuating at 2-2.5 per cent, but there are signs that the curve has steepened a bit and it could move up quite sharply in the future from a variety of factors, Devalier said.

"If the negative term premium becomes positive and if that happens in a very aggressive manner, it would be very disruptive for many Asian economies that have current-account deficits and high-level foreign ownership in portfolio debt, such as Malaysia and Indonesia," she said.

Thailand is not one of the countries at risk at the moment as foreign ownership in Thai government bonds is only at 11 per cent and the Kingdom is expected to have a current-account surplus of around US$12 billion this year, she concluded.

The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-gains-slightly-after-Fed-keeps-US-policy-rate-30262626.html)
Title: Re: Baht weakens
Post by: thaiga on June 29, 2015, 11:59:52 PM
Baht weakens to $/33.85

Thai baht weakened to 33.85-86 against US dollar at the open Monday, as most emerging Asian currencies led by the Malaysian ringgit lost ground.
"Failures to reach the bailout package that lead to bank closure weaken the euro against the greenback," said a currency trader in Bangkok. He expected the Thai baht to move in the range of 33.75-95 today.

Some economists foresee the $/34 rate soon. The level was last seen in 2009.

The ringgit today traded at a 10-year low as Greece looked to be heading for a default on its debt, causing investors to head for safer assets. The ringgit came under additional pressure due to concern that Fitch Ratings may downgrade Malaysia’s credit rating due to the debt problems of state fund 1MDB.

South Korea’s won slid to a 3-1/2-month low, while the Indonesian rupiah fell to around a 17-year trough.

Emerging Asian currencies are likely to stay under pressuredue to a strong US dollar and growing risk aversion, with the prospect of Greece being forced out of the euro, analysts said.

"The stronger dollar outlook coupled with risk-off sentiment emanating from Greek risks is clearly negative for Asian FX," said Heng Koon How, Credit Suisse Private Bank’s senior currency strategist in Singapore. "Particularly, we are negative on ringgit because of an imminent sovereign credit rating downgrade," he said.

The ringgit lost 0.4 per cent to 3.7830 per dollar, its weakest since July 2005. Malaysian companies bought the dollar for month-end payments, hurting the local currency further. The Malaysian unit’s downside was limited by caution over possible intervention by the central bank to support the worst-performing Asian currency so far this year.

The Korean won fell nearly 1 per cent at one stage to 1,127.9 perdollar, its weakest since March 18. The South Korean currency pared some of its losses as exporters chased it for month-end settlements, and that caused some traders to cover short positions in the won.

The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Baht-weakens-to-$33-85-30263338.html)
Title: Re: Baht sinks to 6-year low
Post by: thaiga on July 08, 2015, 04:07:25 PM
Baht sinks to 6-year low

The baht plunged to its weakest level since September 2009 amid sustained outflows from local assets and a selloff in Chinese equities.

Global funds have withdrawn a net US$199 million from stocks and bonds this month, taking total outflows for 2015 to $1.2 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The benchmark SET Index of local shares fell 0.5% on Wednesday after dropping to an almost seven-month low Monday as investors grapple with potential risks stemming from Greece's likely exit from the euro and a stock rout in China.

The baht declined for a third day, retreating 0.2% to 34.007 a dollar as of 11:49am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency, which has lost 4.3% in the past three months in Asia's second-worst performance, sank as low as 34.055 earlier. A gauge of dollar strength rose for a fourth day.

"Foreign outflows signal a weaker outlook for the baht," said Thanomsri Fongarunrung, an economist at Phatra Securities in Bangkok. "The ongoing anxiety in China's stock market and its economy has further weakened sentiment for the baht and other currencies in the region."

China, Asia's largest economy, is the second-biggest export market for Thailand after the US, accounting for about 11% of total overseas shipments in the January-May period, according to a commerce ministry statement dated June 26.

Sovereign bonds climbed, pushing the 10-year yield down four basis points to 2.89%, on course for its lowest close since June 3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/616980/baht-sinks-to-6-year-low)
Title: Re: Baht weakens further on drought, Fed bet
Post by: thaiga on July 24, 2015, 12:02:24 AM
Baht weakens further on drought, Fed bet

The baht is poised to breaking the 35 level against the US dollar for the first time since 2009, after weakening by 2% this week.

Chantavarn Sucharitakul, assistant governor for financial markets operations, said the local currency had depreciated quickly this week due to both internal and external factors.

The US Federal Reserve will likely increase the policy interest rate this year since the economy is recovering steadily.

Gold prices, which plummeted below US$1,1oo an ounce, have triggered higher demand for the precious metal and the US dollar.

At home, worries about the economy and impacts from the drought, as well as public investment delays, have led to downward revisions of economic forecasts in the latter half of this year.

"Investors have sold some Thai assets as a result, while importers slightly accelerated their purchases. In any case, the Bank of Thailand has yet to find any signs of speculation.

"Although a weak baht is necessary to support economic recovery, too fast depreciation might create volatilities and hamper adjustments by the real sector. We're monitoring the situation closely," she said.

Since the beginning of the year, the baht weakness is in line with regional currencies. It traded at 34.5366/9336 at 8pm on Thursday.

In Asia, Bloomberg reported South Korea's won led losses as a report showed the economy expanded 2.2% in the three months through June, missing estimates and decelerating for a fifth straight quarter.

Asian exports are already contracting as growth falters in China, the top destination for many of the region's manufactured goods. Global funds have cut their equity holdings in six of eight Asian markets tracked by Bloomberg in July.

"There's a shift in investor interest from Asia to places like Europe due to growth considerations and expectations for higher yields," said Saktiandi Supaat, head of foreign-exchange research at Malayan Banking Bhd. in Singapore. "Growth fundamentals seem a bit weak for Asia."

South Korea's won fell as much as 1.1% to a three-year low against the dollar, followed by a 0.4% loss in Malaysia's ringgit. The baht dropped 0.2 percent. Indonesia's rupiah declined to the weakest since the Asian financial crisis that roiled markets in 1997-98.

Falling commodity prices are also weighing on raw-material exporters such as Malaysia, whose currency is Asia's worst performer this year amid a slump in Brent crude. The Bloomberg Commodity Index slid Wednesday to the lowest close since 2002, dragged down by a plunge in gold.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region's 10 major currencies, was little changed after earlier falling as much as 0.2% to a five-year low.

Growth in China, the region's largest economy, is projected to slow to 7% this year, the least since 1990. Overseas investors sold a combined net $2.5 billion of shares in South Korea and Taiwan this month, both of whom count China as their biggest export markets.

Elsewhere on Thursday, India's rupee dropped 0.2% and the Philippine peso fell 0.3%. Taiwan's dollar depreciated 0.3%, while the yuan and Vietnam's dong were both little changed at 6.2095 and 21,818, respectively.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/632800/baht-weakens-further-on-drought-fed-rate-cut-bet)
Title: Re: Baht plunges 'quite fast'
Post by: thaiga on July 24, 2015, 11:10:26 AM
Baht plunges 'quite fast' to six-year low against US dollar

(http://koratfart.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10747/30265111-01_big.jpg)

The continued strength of the US dollar and the weak gold price have led to the baht depreciating to a six-year low, trading at Bt34.84 to the greenback yesterday.
Chantavarn Sucharitakul, the Bank of Thailand's assistant governor for Financial Markets Operations Group, admitted that the baht is dropping "quite fast", losing about 2 per cent against the dollar this week.

This is faster than the depreciation of other currencies in the region, which have depreciated 0.3-1.5 per cent.

"The external factor is driven by market speculation that the US Federal Reserve will hike its policy interest rate within this year based on the Fed's comments and recent positive US economic data while the price of gold has dropped below US$1,100 per ounce, which has led to increased demand for the precious metal and demand for the US dollar as well," she explained.

In addition, there are concerns that Thailand's economic performance could be hit by the ongoing drought and the delay in the government's investment projects.

Such an outlook has prompted analysts to lower the country's gross domestic product forecast for this year, with second-half growth to be less than the first half.

Chantavarn said the BOT has not seen any irregularity in the forex markets with relation to the baht.

"The weakening of the baht is needed to support the economic recovery but too rapid a deprecation would make it difficult for the private sector to adapt so the BOT is keeping a close watch," she said.

According to Kasikornbank, the baht is projected to drop below Bt35 to the dollar in the fourth quarter of this year, trading within the target of Bt35.25.

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said the weakening baht has benefited the export sector, but importers will be negatively affected, especially those importing consumer and luxury goods.

Kasikornbank said in a report that Thai authorities had acknowledged that the use of the exchange rate during this time is more effective than cutting interest rates to buoy the flagging economy.

Vallop said imported raw materials, which will be re-exported, would not be affected significantly as it can be offset by foreign exchange income.

However, imports of machinery or capital goods may also be delayed to avoid a higher cost due to the baht's weakness, but long-term projects should not be affected.

Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said the baht's weakness should boost export growth in the second half of the year after facing a contraction in the first six months with June shipments estimated to be down 6-7 per cent year on year.

Exports in the first half of the year dropped about 5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Charl Kengchon, managing director of Kasikorn Research Centre, said the US dollar has been supported by recent positive economic numbers, which had led to the deprecation of currencies in the Southeast Asia region, including the Thai baht.

"The market expects the US Federal Reserve to hike the US interest rate in September, which has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the depreciation of the baht, which is a common factor for the region, while the drop in the price of gold has led people to buy gold. This has led to the baht depreciating even further since gold deals would require US dollars as the currency for transaction," he said.

"The capital outflow from Thailand's stock markets is also contributing to the weakening of the baht," he added.

While the baht dropped to a six-year low yesterday, gold prices are now at a five-year low, trading at $1091 on July 22.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index has dropped by 3.33 per cent from the beginning of the year, with capital outflow of Bt35.82 billion to date, including about Bt20 billion this month.

Tim Leelahaphan, Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) economist and assistant vice president of its Research Department said the firm still expects the baht to be around Bt34.50 per US dollar by the end of the third quarter.

"Short-term factors from foreign speculation and the strengthening of the US dollar might push the baht to go beyond Bt35 per dollar," he added.

Prinn Panitchpakdi, country head at CLSA Securities (Thailand), said the baht might go past Bt35 per US dollar as cash is flowing back to the US.

"CLSA expect the baht to be at Bt35-Bt35.5 by the end of the year but it can swing between Bt33.8-Bt35.5 in the next 5-6 months from the US rate hike and the expected improvement of Thailand's economy next year," he said.

The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-plunges-quite-fast-to-six-year-low-against-US-30265111.html)
Title: Re: Baht weakening has sapped Thailand’s foreign reserves
Post by: thaiga on July 25, 2015, 12:21:08 PM
Baht weakening has sapped Thailand’s foreign reserves

The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars as of July 17, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The foreign reserves cutback was based on the calculation of the exchange rate of 34.84 baht per dollar.  Just one week earlier, foreign reserves stood at US$158.8 billion or 5.39 trillion baht.

Forward position was kept at US$ 19.5 billion compared to last week’s US$19.3 billion resulting to the reduction of net foreign reserves to US$176.8 billion.

Financial market analysts of commercial banks attributed the drop in foreign reserves to steady weakening of the baht against US dollars. They predicted that the baht would continue to weaken but it should not be a matter of serious concern because Thailand’s foreign reserves are at high level and are sufficient to maintain economic stability.

englishnews.thaipbs.or.th (http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/baht-weakening-has-sapped-thailands-foreign-reserves)
Title: Re: Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$
Post by: thaiga on July 26, 2015, 01:43:16 PM
Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$

ECONOMISTS believe the country's status as net creditor and the current account surplus will strengthen the baht after it had hit a six-year low to the US dollar on Thursday, however the global price of gold is expected to continue to drop due to the strengthening of the US dollar.

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the baht that is currently weakening because of overseas factors and the drop in the gold price, to strengthen after the short-term psychological effect dies down due to its strong backup.

"It is like trying to kick a football up the hill; it will eventually roll down since you are kicking it up the slope without anything to provide upward momentum," she said.

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) expects the baht to be at 34.5 by the end of the third quarter.

The baht has slid from Bt32.835 to the greenback on April 29 (the day of the second consecutive cut of the policy interest rate this year) to trade at Bt34.936 as of 4pm yesterday. The global gold price has also continued to drop to $1,084 per ounce at the same time yesterday compared with $1,160 per ounce on July 12 (the day that the value of the precious metal started to decline amid the strengthening of the US dollar).

She explained that the reason why the baht had outperformed other currencies before the consecutive cuts in the policy interest rate in March and April was because Thailand was a net creditor: The country's current lending in US dollars is around $190 billion while its foreign debts stand at around $140 billion, which means the Kingdom is a net lender of around US$50 billion.

Somchai Amornthum, executive vice president at Krung Thai Asset Management (KTAM) said the baht was unlikely to slide that much further than Bt35 to the US dollar, as the country's current account surplus is expected to continue to expand. Imports normally increased in July and August every year but oil price has dropped 50 per cent. "Although exports have continued to contract since the beginning of the year, in the overall scenario the surplus in the current account will be even bigger," he said.

"The global oil price is also expected to be in the region of $50 per barrel for quite some time due to the increase in supply and that is another support for surplus in the current account, as Thailand is a net importer of oil," he added.

Thailand currently carries a current account surplus of $2.127 billion as of May 2015.

Kamolthun Pornphaisarnvichit, director of the Gold Research Centre, said the global gold price is expected to drop by about $30 to around $1,050 per ounce during the period of expectation of an expected Fed rate hike around September this year. If the US interest rate is hiked in September, then gold is expected to trade around $1,050-$1,150 per ounce in September and October.

"The gold price in Thailand has dropped less than the global gold price because of the weakening baht. The price in Thailand has dropped by 3.2 per cent to around Bt18,000 per gold bar since the beginning of the month until now while the global gold price has dropped by 4.5 per cent in the same period of time," he said.

The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-unlikely-to-slide-below-35$-30265187.html)
Title: Re: Baht has biggest monthly drop since 2001
Post by: thaiga on August 01, 2015, 12:17:02 PM
Baht has biggest monthly drop since 2001

The baht dropped this month by the most in more than 14 years after the government cut forecasts for growth and exports, spurring outflows from Thai equities as the US prepares to raise interest rates.

The currency fell 4.2% to 35.245 baht a dollar as of 4.15pm, the sharpest monthly loss since March 2001, Bloomberg-compiled data show. It declined 0.5% on Friday and earlier reached 35.280, the lowest level since May 2009.

The economy is slowing as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha fails to spur a revival and as planned investment in infrastructure falls short of target. While overseas investors sold a net US$856 million of stocks this month as of Wednesday, the most since May 2014, an index of sovereign bonds rose, suggesting demand for the relative safety of debt.

“The baht has fallen in line with a strong dollar,” said Tsutomu Soma, department manager of the fixed-income business unit at Rakuten Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “Thai political uncertainties are also weighing on investor confidence.”

The government is under increasing pressure to overhaul the cabinet and bolster the economy as waning consumer confidence and a slump in manufacturing portend one of the region’s slowest expansions, according to analysts.

The economy may grow 3 in 2015, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday, down from an April estimate of 3.7%. Exports have contracted for six straight months and a central bank report Friday showed they fell 8.9% last month from a year earlier.

Overseas shipments may drop in 2015 by more than the Bank of Thailand’s 1.5% forecast, senior director Roong Mallikamas said on Friday.

A Bloomberg index of Thai sovereign bonds gained 0.9% in July, halting a two-month drop. The three-year yield declined 17 basis points from June 30 to 1.6% and the 10-year yield fell 13 basis points to 2.83%.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/640188/baht-has-biggest-monthly-drop-since-2001)
Title: Re: Thai baht could drop further this week
Post by: thaiga on August 03, 2015, 02:31:04 PM
Thai baht could drop further this week

-Thai stocks are likely to fluctuate this week due to domestic and external factors. Meanwhile the Thai baht is expected to weaken further after it plunged to its lowest level in six years last week.

Kasikorn Bank has forecast resistance and support levels for the Thai stock market this week at approximately 1,460 and 1,420 points.

However, the fluctuations are subject to several factors which include monetary policy, the US economic figures, the purchasing managers index (PMI) and the Eurozone financial disruption in Greece.

The Thai baht will likely fluctuate at a maximum of 35 baht against the US dollar. The Thai currency is also susceptible to commodity demands, employment rates and trade figures.

NNT (http://thainews.prd.go.th/CenterWeb/NewsEN/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5808030010001#sthash.6JtvVLyA.dpuf)
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 12, 2015, 09:09:49 PM
Looks like it took a considerable dive today, after the Chinese devalued the Yuan for 4.46 5 since yesterday. Hopefully the Thai government follows that move to some degree and devalues the baht as well.
Title: Re: Baht weakest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on August 13, 2015, 06:55:40 AM
Johnnie sorry but correct me if I am wrong.
The Baht is currently as WEAK as it has been recently.
UK Forex shows Baht 55 to £1 yesterday.
When the Baht is weak you get or give more Baht for each £/$ etc.
When the Baht is strong you get or give less for each £/$ ....
6 years ago when I moved to Thailand at Baht 46 to £1 the Baht - the Baht was stronger then ?
Confusing ain't it ?
ATB
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 13, 2015, 08:28:43 AM
You're right, Roger, the baht is weak and should be even weaker, because it is still too strong, i. e. it is overvalued. Until 6 years ago it was a lot weaker. If it doesn't get corrected soon, i. e. devalued, Thai exports will feel it like the Chinese had to realize that a Yuan too strong isn't good for their economy. We foreign pensioners do feel it the other way round: If the baht is too strong we'll get less baht for our pennies. But expensive exports do find less buyers, and that hurts big money. So politicians got to make the move and devalue.
Title: Re: Baht weakest in 2 months
Post by: Roger on August 13, 2015, 09:15:35 AM
Yes Johnnie the Baht is weak and IMHO, likely to weaken still further in coming months.
Chinese moves devaluing the Yuan may motivate Thailand to follow suit.
Continuing unresolved problems inside the Eurozone are relevant. 
Interest rates may increase sooner rather than later in the USA and the UK too.
My income arises in the UK so it's good for me.
Baht 65 to the £1 would be nice !
ATB
Title: Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
Post by: Not A Buffalo on August 13, 2015, 09:52:47 AM
Hope this website may be of interest to everyone else.

It's where I go 1st to know what really is going on - not the PC governments views!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-12/china-devalues-yuan-3rd-day-4-year-lows-argentina-suffers-losses-japan-escalates-cur (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-12/china-devalues-yuan-3rd-day-4-year-lows-argentina-suffers-losses-japan-escalates-cur)

I personally am of the belief we are only just starting the ride...... down, down and even further down :(
Title: Re: Baht weakening ?
Post by: Roger on August 13, 2015, 10:49:18 AM
Thanks Buffy and Johnnie can we change the misleading heading on this thread ? ATB
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: Johnnie F. on August 13, 2015, 12:13:37 PM
Thanks Buffy and Johnnie can we change the misleading heading on this thread ? ATB

as simple as that!  :salute
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: thaiga on August 13, 2015, 12:32:43 PM
Baht fluctuations, we've suffered some time now lets hope we've seen the worst

China's currency devaluation: Thailand's economic nightmare?

Yesterday, the People's Bank of China cut the value of its currency for the second day in a row. Analysts now estimate that the yuan has depreciated more than 3 per cent against the US dollar, having already dropped 1.8 per cent when China "threw a curveball" the day before. Most media called it a surprise move, but observant economists had seen it coming for quite some time.

full article: The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Chinas-currency-devaluation-Thailands-economic-nig-30266475.html)

Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: thaiga on August 18, 2015, 12:08:15 PM
Baht at six-year low, tourism shares fall after bombing

Thailand's baht currency slumped to a more than six-year low on Tuesday and shares fell in Bangkok over concerns an unprecedented attack in the capital could hit the vital tourism sector.

full article: Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/659900/baht-at-six-year-low-tourism-shares-fall-after-bombing)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: thaiga on September 08, 2015, 02:04:50 PM
Baht hits new low on charter woes, US data

US ECONOMIC data released last week and developments on the domestic political front sent the baht to a six-and-a-half year low at more than 36 per US dollar yesterday.

"The market now believes that the United States' central bank might have a greater probability of increasing its interest rate this month following the US' announcement that its unemployment rate has declined to 5.1 per cent while average income per hour has also increased more than expected," Chirathep Senivongs Na Ayudhya, spokesman for the Bank of Thailand, said yesterday.

full article: The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-hits-new-low-on-charter-woes-US-data-30268346.html)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht halts slide
Post by: thaiga on September 18, 2015, 03:47:30 PM
Baht halts slide as rate decisions maintain yield allure

The baht halted a 10-week loss as investors returned to the nation’s assets following decisions by the Thai and US central banks to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the yield advantage of local bonds.

full article: Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/698608/baht-halts-slide-as-rate-decisions-maintain-yield-allure)
Title: Re: The baht had weakened to 36.55 against the US dollar by 5pm yesterday
Post by: thaiga on September 30, 2015, 03:33:27 PM
Weak baht may be little help to exports

THE WEAKENING of the baht will not help Thailand's export sector much, as other countries have seen their currencies depreciate as well, private-sector representatives said.

The baht had weakened to 36.55 against the US dollar by 5pm yesterday, from 36.29 on Monday evening.

The nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Weak-baht-may-be-little-help-to-exports-30269869.html)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht rises to 2-month high
Post by: thaiga on January 29, 2016, 05:08:26 PM
Baht rises to 2-month high as stock rout draws funds to bonds

The baht rose to a two-month high on Friday and is poised to halt a run of monthly losses as global funds returned to the nation’s bonds.

Overseas investors pumped almost $1 billion into Thai debt in January following two straight months of outflows, as a rout across world stock markets boosted demand for the relative safety of fixed-income securities. In a bright spot for the currency, the current-account surplus is forecast to have widened in December to the second highest monthly reading of 2015, while the government is predicting record tourist arrivals this year.

full article: Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/845032/baht-rises-to-2-month-high-as-stock-rout-draws-funds-to-bonds)
Title: Re: Baht reaches 7-month high
Post by: thaiga on March 17, 2016, 01:12:53 PM
Baht reaches 7-month high, stays firm as market eyes Fed

The baht hit a seven-month high against the dollar on Wednesday, showing resilience despite potential risks from the US Federal Reserve's policy statement due later in the day.

Moves among Asian currencies were mixed, with the baht and Philippine peso edging higher, while the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah retreated against the dollar.

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy decision due later on Wednesday.

full article: Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/899988/baht-reaches-7-month-high-stays-firm-as-market-eyes-fed)
Title: Re: Baht gains as Q1 growth beats estimates
Post by: thaiga on May 16, 2016, 09:01:36 PM
Baht gains as Q1 growth beats estimates

The baht rose on Monday after Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy expanded more than analysts estimated, spurred by the government’s increased spending.

The currency climbed 0.3% to 35.366 per dollar as of 4.14pm, halting a five-day loss, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It was the baht’s biggest gain since April 29. The SET Index increased 0.2%.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha has issued a series of stimulus measures worth more than 400 billion baht since last year to help shore up local demand. The Bank of Thailand last week left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for an eighth straight meeting to help support growth.

Gross domestic product increased 3.2% in the three months through March from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Board reported Monday. That compares with the 2.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

“The much stronger-than-expected data provides support for the baht,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a Bangkok-based currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “With this data, speculation of a further rate cut is probably fading a bit, however downside risks to growth remain.”

The baht may trade between 35.25 and 35.55 per dollar this week, said Hasegawa. The 10-year bond yield rose two basis points to 1.82% and the two year climbed one basis point to 1.38%.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/975361/baht-gains-as-q1-growth-beats-estimates)
Title: Re: BOT to keep baht from fluctuating too much
Post by: thaiga on May 31, 2016, 12:27:15 PM
BOT to keep baht from fluctuating too much

Bank of Thailand (BOT) Governor Wirathai Santipraphop said the baht has depreciated since the US dollar sharply rose under the United States Federal Reserve's policy.

Although the weakened baht remains in line with the fluctuations of regional currencies, the BOT will see to it that the baht will not fluctuate too much to avoid adverse impacts on the national economy, he said.

The BOT governor added that the number of banknotes has decreased because not so many have been newly printed and more people have turned to E-payment.

NNT (http://thainews.prd.go.th/CenterWeb/NewsEN/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5905300010016)
Title: Re: Baht to Weaken to 37 to the US Dollar, According to KBank
Post by: thaiga on June 16, 2016, 12:40:48 PM
Baht to Weaken to 37 to the US Dollar, According to KBank

Forecasts from KBank point to the baht weakening against the greenback by the end of the year. Looming interest rate hikes in the United States and the potential of the U.K leaving the European Union are to blame.

The bank’s capital market research department asserts that the baht will weaken in the second half of the year as global uncertainties push the currency downward.

Immediate forecasts have the baht retreating to 35.50 versus the USD in June, falling to 36 versus the greenback in July, and reaching 37 versus the dollar by the end of the year. Siam Commercial Bank also forecasts the baht falling to 37.

The baht has fallen slightly from Monday’s 35.21/35.23 to 35.28/35.30 on Tuesday.

KBank believes that the United States will increase interest rates twice this year, starting with a hike in July. Offshore funds have increased greatly in Asia, with foreign holdings of Thai bonds skyrocketing from 40 billion baht to over 140-billion-baht last week.

The Bank of Thailand may hold off on raising interest rates from the current 1.5% level due to a downward trend on the baht. The downward trend further reduces pressure on investors that were anticipating an interest rate hike.

The SET index target for the end of the year has been revised upward from 1,350 – 1,470 to 1,400 – 1,500 points by Kasikorn Securities. The increase follows Thailand outperforming expectations and realizing 3.2% Q1 growth year over year. Economic momentum is slated to continue as the government rolls out megaprojects and implements stimulus measures.

ethailand.com (https://ethailand.com/business-news/baht-weaken-37-us-dollar-according-kbank-forecast/2896/)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Further baht gains may hurt recovery
Post by: thaiga on August 22, 2016, 12:55:48 PM
Further baht gains may hurt recovery, Bank of Thailand says

Thailand’s central bank is concerned further appreciation of the baht will hurt exporters and damage the nation’s economic recovery.

The currency advanced to the strongest level in 13 months last week as overseas investors boosted their holdings of the country’s stocks and bonds this year. Exports have contracted in 16 of the past 18 months, prompting Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to increase spending to counter the slump. The currency has also rallied as investor confidence was bolstered by the peaceful approval of a new constitution in an Aug. 7 referendum.

“To date, the appreciation of the baht might have dampened the cash flows of Thai exporters,” Bank of Thailand Assistant Governor of Financial Markets Chantavarn Sucharitakul, said in an e-mail interview. “Further strength in the baht might also derail the recovery of the Thai economy – a concern which the Bank of Thailand has to monitor closely.”

The baht was at 34.72 per dollar as of 10:35 a.m. in Bangkok, having gained 3.8 per cent this year. It appreciated to 34.50 on Aug. 19, the strongest since July 2015.

Funds based overseas boosted their holdings of the nation’s stocks and bonds by US$13.3 billion (RM53.7 billion) this year, according to exchange data. Emerging-market currencies, including the baht, have rallied on optimism that global central banks will keep monetary policy accommodative to support growth.

“Given that the inflows are externally driven, the reversal process is inevitable and the best that a recipient economy can do is to ensure that it is resilient and sufficiently well balanced to be able to absorb shocks, emanating from both sides be they inflows and outflows,” Chantavarn said.

Thailand’s economy grew more in the second quarter than analysts predicted, expanding 3.5 per cent from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Board said last week.

The authorities are resorting first to “verbal intervention” to restrain excessive appreciation of the baht, said Charlie Lay, a currency analyst at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. Another option is to relax foreign-exchange regulations further to encourage capital outflows, he said. The central bank in July allowed investors with assets greater than 100 million baht to invest in securities and derivatives overseas without going through a Thai intermediary.

“The bottom line is they’ll probably want to keep the Thai baht stable on a relative basis against its major trading partners,” Lay said. The currency will weaken to 35.4 per dollar by year-end, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. — Bloomberg

themalaymailonline.com (http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/further-baht-gains-may-hurt-recovery-bank-of-thailand-says)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: captcraig2 on August 23, 2016, 11:55:22 AM
Like to see 40 to a dollar!  :cheers
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: thaiga on August 23, 2016, 01:19:06 PM
The last thing i thought about when i come here was the exchange rates going down, then it was 70+ to the pound
 but the muffin is still good value, even at today's prices

                                                                            :cheers
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht depreciation expected
Post by: thaiga on November 27, 2016, 03:52:14 PM
Baht depreciation expected

THE EXPECTED policy-rate increase by the US Federal Reserve next month would result in the baht deprecating for at least two quarters consecutively, and Thai companies that plan to raise finances from bonds would face rising funding costs, according to Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri).

The market predicts that the Fed will increase its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December, and Krungsri has the same view, said Tak Bunnag, head of the bank’s Global Markets Group.
The bank expects the Fed will rise the policy rate twice in 2017, ending up at 1 per cent from 0.25 per cent currently.
Tak forecast that a rate increase would result in the baht depreciating over the next two quarters before turning to appreciation in the second half of next year after the market sees clearer policies from US President-elect Donald Trump.
The baht against the dollar at the end of this year is expected to be 35.75.

The baht in the first quarter of 2017 is expected to be 36, and 35.75 in the second quarter. In the third quarter of 2017 it is expected to reach 35.50 and 35.25 in the fourth quarter, according to the Global Markets Group.
Tak said a Fed rate increase would also drive yield curves and increase the funding costs of bond issuers, while banks would face rising funding costs too.

Krungsri believes that the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its rate of 1.5 per cent throughout next year, although fund-flow movements in Thailand and elsewhere in Asia are factors to be further monitored because of their possible influence on the Kingdom’s interest rates.

Tak said bond issuers who planned tenors of five to seven years would face rising costs but at the same time their bonds would attractive to investors as the interest rates of deposit products in Thailand are expected to decrease further. This should be a win-win situation for both bond issuers and investors, he added.
He said banks that were arrangers of bond issues should balance the expected issuers and investors, while the Global Markets Group was active in consulting Japanese companies in Thailand about investing in the Thai bond market because of Japanese companies’ earlier preference for deposit products.
Even if the funding costs from issuing bonds were increased, large companies would still look at capital markets as an option for them apart from bank loans.

Thai companies have managed their risks well, while banks have been conservative in approving loans amid the economic uncertainty, although they still support lending to Thai corporates that are able to grow here and overseas.
Krungsri believes that the debt capital market and bank loans will still be funding sources for Thai corporates.
The Global Markets Group plans to grow in four segments – Japanese firms in Thailand, multinational companies, financial institutions, and Thai companies.

Krungsri is a member of Mitsubishi Financial UFJ. Tak said the bank was increasing its role in encouraging Thai investors including financial institutions to put more money into Japanese government bonds.
He said the bank would also leverage Japanese firms’ knowledge of risk management to help Thai companies better manage risk amid financial-market volatility.

The Nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/business/investment_finance/30300862)
Title: Re: The baht has been among the biggest losers in Asia in the past month
Post by: thaiga on December 21, 2016, 04:25:25 PM
Central bank holds key rate for 13th straight meeting

The Bank of Thailand held its key interest rate near a record low for a 13th straight meeting on Wednesday, opting for stability as the prospect of higher US borrowing costs weighs on Asian currencies and clouds the outlook for growth.

The one-day bond repurchase rate was kept at 1.5%, with monetary policy committee members voting unanimously in favour, the central bank announced.

All but one of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the decision.

Emerging nations are contending with capital outflows after the US Federal Reserve last week raised rates by a quarter-point and signaled three more increases may be warranted in 2017.

Thailand's export-reliant economy is growing at the slowest pace among its peers in Southeast Asia.

"The BoT will want to keep interest rates low to support the economy, which looks to have started the fourth quarter on a softer note,” Krystal Tan, an economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, said in a note. “With inflation set to remain benign, we expect the BoT to stay on the sidelines and keep its policy rate on hold” throughout 2017.

Biggest Loser

The SET index was little changed as of 2.10pm in Bangkok, while the baht was up 0.1% to 35.99 per dollar. The baht has been among the biggest losers in Asia in the past month, dropping 1.4% against the dollar.

Thailand’s economy struggled to gain traction this year as moderating consumer spending and a slump in trade curbed investment. Growth weakened to 3.2% from a year ago last quarter. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in November from a year earlier.

The central bank said it “assessed that the Thai economy would still be facing greater uncertainties going forward, particularly the fragile global economic recovery and uncertainties in the economic and monetary policy directions of major advanced economies that might induce greater capital flow and exchange rate volatility.”

Policy makers retained their 3.2% growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and predicted exports will stop falling next year. Inflation is projected to return to the 1 percent to 4% target by the first quarter.

“Unless domestic demand in Thailand falters and inflation eases, we do not foresee a rate cut,” Tim Leelahaphan, a Bangkok-based economist at Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand Pcl, said before the decision. “More likely, rates have upside risk to stem portfolio capital outflows caused by any Fed monetary tightening.”

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/1165073/central-bank-holds-key-rate-for-13th-straight-meeting)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht will likely fluctuate this year
Post by: thaiga on January 20, 2017, 02:49:56 PM
Baht will likely fluctuate this year

 Executives of commercial banks have forecast that the baht currency will likely fluctuate more than last year mainly due to the uncertainty about the policy of the new US President.

Executive of Kasikornbank Kiit Charornkitchaichana said the US politics was the key factor affecting the Thai currency during this period. This year, the baht will have a tendency to fluctuate either by depreciating and appreciating quickly. The bank therefore forecast the baht’s value this year will stay around 35-37 baht to the USD, said the executive.

Meanwhile, TMB Analytics of TMB Bank has predicted that this year’s baht currency will be on the depreciation side although it appreciated against the USD in the last two weeks. This baht appreciation was the result of USD currency speculation, said the bank.

TBM added that the Thai economy and other economies in the Asian region will rebound this year, leading to capital inflows. The baht will likely move between 35.50 – 36.80 baht to the USD.

NNT (http://nwnt.prd.go.th/CenterWeb/NewsEN/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO6001190010016)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Thai baht set to weaken
Post by: thaiga on March 08, 2017, 06:32:23 PM
Thai baht set to weaken   :thankyou

Thai baht is set to weaken following foreign capital outflows from the stock and bond markets.

The Thai baht today is traded at Bt35.13 per US dollar, gaining nearly 2 per cent since the beginning of this year.

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) expects a reversal of the trend this month due to tightening by the US Federal Reserve.

Net foreign outflows yesterday were tuned at Bt6 billion: Bt2.4 billion from stocks, Bt2.8 billion from short-term bonds and Bt0.8 billion from long-term bonds.

Foreigners were also net sellers of Thai stocks and bonds on Monday, with net-sell positions worth Bt3.2 billion. 

nationmultimedia.com (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/breakingnews/30308274)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht to strengthen, forecasts Bank of Ayudhya
Post by: thaiga on March 20, 2017, 06:26:34 PM
Baht to strengthen, forecasts Bank of Ayudhya

The Bank of Ayudhya, also known as Krungsri, forecasts the baht will strengthen against the US dollar to a range of Bt34.55 to Bt34.85, from Bt34.86 last week.

On Monday, the baht reached a five-month high against the US dollar after the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week.

Foreign investors have been keen on the Thai bond market, with net purchases of Bt3.7 billion at the end of last week.

The Nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/breakingnews/30309677)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Strong baht tipped to hurt tourist stays
Post by: thaiga on June 15, 2017, 05:46:46 PM
Strong baht tipped to hurt tourist stays

A strong baht is expected to hurt inbound tourism by driving up the cost of travel and narrowing industry margins, say public and private players in the tourism sector.

The Tourism and Sports Ministry revealed yesterday the baht in the year to date has appreciated by 14% against the pound sterling, 8% against Malaysia's ringgit, 5% against the euro and 2% against the US dollar.

Bucking the trend was the Russian ruble, up by 20% against the baht during the first five months of the year as arrivals from Russia grew by 31%.

The ministry expects the ruble to continue climbing during the second half of the year.

The baht's appreciation has been driven by internal factors.

The export sector, for example, jumped by 5.7% between January and April to a total value of US$73.34 billion.

External factors, however, like Brexit, a sluggish Malaysian economy and US policies under President Donald Trump, have also played a part.

"Appreciation increases the price of staying in Thailand, which may make some foreign tourists hesitant about booking trips," said Pongpanu Svettarundra, permanent secretary of the Tourism and Sports Ministry.

Compounding the strong baht is the ongoing air traffic blockade on Qatar, which may halt tourism from the Middle East, and affect many connecting flights from Europe.

The ministry says, however, that travel between Thailand and the Middle East may remain unchanged, as major airlines -- including Qatar Airways -- are still operating as usual.

Some 4.4% of tourists from Thailand arrived on a flight from the Middle East.

Visitors from Arab countries usually travel with family and seek out medical treatment here.

Ittirit Kinglake, president of the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT), said that despite the former factors he is ''optimistic that Thailand will attract the 34 million tourists which the council projects for this year".

During the first five months, 14.61 million foreign tourists visited Thailand -- a 3.2% increase from the same period last year. Visitors have spent 747.07 billion baht in the country so far this year.

By contrast, locals made 45.14 million domestic trips and generated income of 305.38 billion baht for the economy in the same interval.

Hotel operators in Bangkok said the high season will likely begin in late November or early December, judging from advance booking made from overseas markets.

Bangkokpost (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1267519/strong-baht-tipped-to-hurt-tourist-stays)
Title: Re: Weakening of the baht
Post by: thaiga on July 09, 2017, 02:29:36 PM
Weakening of the baht could boost Thai exports

The baht has slightly weakened after the US Department of Labour reported on Friday that the US economy had added 222,000 new jobs in June. The US job growth was greater than expected.

The Thai currency weakened yesterday to slightly over 34 per US dollar after it strengthened to over 33 per dollar on Monday.

Amonthep Chawla, head of the research office at CIMB Thai Bank, said the easing might be temporary and the baht would be volatile looking ahead. The market is waiting to see data on the US gross domestic product in the second quarter and what the Federal Reserve would do about its huge balance sheet, he said. Thai exporters have previously complained about a strong baht, fearing it would drag down exports in the second half of the year. Appreciation of the baht would make Thai products more expensive in the global market.

The Nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30320253)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht strongest in 25 months
Post by: thaiga on July 18, 2017, 02:35:32 PM
Baht closes at 33.66 baht/dollar, the strongest in 25 months

The Thai baht closed at 33.66 baht against the US dollar, the strongest in 25 months after the currency was trading between 33.73-33.75 baht/dollar throughout Monday (July 17), said Jitipol Puksamatanan, a currency and capital markets strategist of the Krung Thai Bank.

He attributed the quick strengthening of the Thai baht to massive sale of US dollars coupled with the inflow of foreign capital, including fund flow for the takeover of LH Bank.

Mr Jitipol noted the quick strengthening of the baht coincides with the weakening of the US dollar which is unlikely to get stronger while the Bank of Thailand is reluctant to intervene.

He predicted that the Thai baht would get stronger next week to 33.60 baht/dollar and may rise to 33.50 baht/dollar if fund flow continues to pour into the country.

englishnews.thaipbs.or.th (http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/baht-closes-33-66-bahtdollar-strongest-25-months/)

Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: Johnnie F. on July 18, 2017, 06:55:12 PM
The Thai Baht isn't getting stronger at all! Euro and Pound are also gaining against the Baht, though by far not as much as the Dollar is loosing. Investors are loosing confidence in the US economy, since the president proves unable to fulfill his promises.
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: thaiga on July 18, 2017, 07:47:24 PM
The Thai Baht isn't getting stronger at all! Euro and Pound are also gaining against the Baht
SHUSH! they haven't noticed  8)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: Johnnie F. on July 18, 2017, 08:29:28 PM
SHUSH! they haven't noticed  8)

Maybe they're just too polite to destroy that guy's dream of "making America the greatest (again ;))"
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Strong baht yet to affect growth
Post by: thaiga on July 20, 2017, 02:32:45 PM
Strong baht yet to affect growth - finance minister

Economic growth has not yet been affected by a strong baht, the finance minister said on Thursday, as the currency hovered near 26-month highs against the dollar.

"The baht's strength has not yet affected growth. We believe big business sectors can still handle it although SMEs may see some impact," Apisak Tantivorawong told reporters.

The baht has risen 6.5% against the US dollar so far this year, the most in Southeast Asia.

The finance ministry has forecast economic growth of 3.6% this year after 3.2% growth last year.

bangkokpost.com (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1290634/strong-baht-yet-to-affect-growth-finance-minister)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: Johnnie F. on September 09, 2017, 01:55:22 PM
Nod for foreigners issuing bonds in baht

(http://koratfart.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10001/c1_1321143_170909091128_620x413.jpg)

The Finance Ministry will let foreign state agencies and companies apply for baht-denominated bond issuance as a special case from Sept 6 to Oct 6, a move expected to help curb the baht's rapid gain.

Foreign entities that win Finance Ministry approval must issue the baht bonds with a maturity of up to three years between Nov 1, 2017 and March 31, 2018, the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) said in a release.

The issuers will be allowed to use the proceeds only in domestic transactions in baht terms and for onshore spot exchange.

The ministry will open applications for foreign entities to offer baht-denominated bonds three times a year: in March, July and November.

An informed source at the Finance Ministry said the special period for baht bond applications is in line with the initiatives of Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong, since he believes that letting foreign entities issue baht bonds will help stem the sharp appreciation of the baht, as bond issuers must convert proceeds to US dollars.

But the issuance size depends on the Finance Ministry's discretion, the source said.

The baht is among the top-performing currencies in Asia, up 7.7% year-to-date, according to Bloomberg data. In comparison, the Japanese yen has surged 7.9%, the Singaporean dollar 7.6% and the Taiwanese dollar 7.4% since the start of the year.

In related news, the PDMO said the Finance Ministry has approved the issuance of baht-denominated bonds by the Lao government and Nam Ngum 2 Power Co.

Both foreign entities are required to issue the baht-dominated bonds or debentures in Thailand by May 31, 2018, and must use all proceeds from the debentures according to the terms and conditions specified by the Finance Ministry.

Bangkok Post (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/1321143/nod-for-foreigners-issuing-bonds-in-baht)

Wasn't it the Yanks under DT who recently had to raise their debt limit to keep from going bankrupt? They might as well try to borrow from Thais and by that help depreciating the Baht.
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Thai baht hits highest in 2-1/2 years
Post by: thaiga on November 20, 2017, 04:17:35 PM
Thai baht hits highest in 2-1/2 years

The Thai baht rose to 32.81 per dollar on Monday, its highest since April 2015, driven by strong third quarter economic growth data.

Thailand's economy expanded at its fastest annual rate in 4½ years, although the quarterly pace slowed, indicating monetary policy will likely remain loose to support still-sluggish domestic demand.

"Thailand's third-quarter GDP released this morning was fairly strong so we see the baht staying fairly stable," Mizuho Bank's Chang said.

The baht firmed fractionally after the GDP news, gaining up to 0.09%.

Most Asian currencies were muted on Monday in the face of political uncertainty in Germany and lingering doubts about the prospects for US tax reform, dimming sentiment.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rivals, was up 0.3% as the euro slid, hit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's failure to form a three-way coalition government, increasing the level of political uncertainty.

Merkel said on Monday she would meet the German president to inform him that she had failed to form a coalition government with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) after the FDP unexpectedly pulled out of the coalition talks.

Recently, the dollar has been weighed down by uncertainty over US tax policy, notably cuts for business and the wealthy.

While the baht hit its highest in more than 2½ years, the Malaysian ringgit was up 0.1% at its highest for more than a year. The ringgit continued its gain after data on Friday showed that Malaysia's economy expanded in the third quarter at its fastest pace in more than three years, raising expectations of a interest rate hike at the central bank's next policy meeting in January.

"Even though we see a bit of a euro weakness having an impact on Asian currencies, there is also quite a bit of positivity within Southeast Asia where we have quite strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers coming through from Malaysia and the Philippines that is likely to be quite supportive of these two currencies - at least in the near term," said Wei Liang Chang, FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

"So markets are likely to be paying attention to idiosyncratic factors especially given that you have quite a good story coming out of Asia."

Losses in the region were led by an 0.2% decline in the South Korean won, and the Singapore dollar that slipped 0.2% because of the fall in euro.

The Indian rupee fell 0.15% after having led gains in the region in its previous session after Moody's Investors Services upgraded its ratings on India's sovereign bonds on Friday.

The Taiwan dollar was marginally higher ahead of balance of payment data due later in the day, while the Chinese yuan ticked 0.1% lower.

Bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1363856/thai-baht-hits-highest-in-2-1-2-years)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation
Post by: thaiga on January 18, 2018, 02:42:14 PM
BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation

In a rare move, the Bank of Thailand has threatened to investigate some financial institutions with operations in Thailand for possible involvement in baht speculation.

The central bank's announcement comes amid the baht's continued rally against the US dollar. The local currency, up nearly 2% versus the greenback in 2018, is now the second-best performer in Asia this year after the Malaysian ringgit.

The central bank has found that some financial institutions' behaviour could indicate involvement in baht speculation through heavy transaction volume, said Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, who added that such practices have been done in favour of customers who may be speculating in baht.

Regulators need to launch an in-depth examination of such activities and consider tightening the rules to thwart speculators, Mr Veerathai said without mentioning any names.

He said the speculative activities were unlike the ones in the past that prompted the central bank to require financial institutions to monitor and report the activities of non-resident (NR) accounts.

Each foreigner who puts money in a non-resident baht account (NRBA) is prevented from holding the outstanding balance in all accounts opened at domestic financial institutions at more than 300 million baht at the end of day.

An NRBA, with the exception of a fixed account with a maturity of six months or longer, normally offers no interest to account holders.

The NRBA and the non-resident account for securities (NRBS) are among the central bank's measures to prevent foreigners from speculating in baht.

Other measures include a restriction on baht liquidity, curbing capital inflows and non-deliverable forward (NDF) -- similar to a regular forward FX contract but not requiring physical delivery of the designated currencies at maturity.

Mr Veerathai has repeatedly said that the baht's strength this year could be due to the US dollar's slump against other major currencies.

Thailand's high current account surplus and offshore fund inflows to the local bond market could also be contributing to the baht's strength, he said.

The US dollar is down about 2% to the euro since the start of the year.

The stronger baht, however, is in line with firming regional currencies, Mr Veerathai said.

"The Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring fund inflows to short-dated bonds, but no irregularity has been found," he said. "The central bank will continue to keep the existing measure of downsizing short-term bond issuance in place."

The central bank began tapering its new short-term bond supply in April last year after hot money was spotted flowing into short-dated notes, resulting in the baht's rapid appreciation.

Mr Veerathai said the baht's strength is unlikely to deal a direct blow to Thai exports, though exporters' income could ebb.

Foreign exchange rates will not have a direct impact on goods pricing, he said, as value-added products, productivity and business potential all play a role in honing competitive edge and increasing Thai business operators' price-setting power.

Mr Veerathai said the time is right for business operators to import equipment and machinery, as their costs will be lower in baht terms and such investment will help beef up competitiveness.

Thailand's economic recovery and current account surplus, which could continue to rise above US$40 billion (1.3 trillion baht) this year, are factors driving the baht higher, Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) said in a note.

The baht's value is expected to continue appreciating in the first months of this year, reflecting movement of capital inflows and market sentiment about Thailand's economic fundamentals and recovery impetus, K-Research said.

Despite how global financial markets are fixated on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate normalisation, this is not the sole factor affecting the local currency's value, as other factors have to be taken into account, the research house said. Factors include Thailand's current account surplus, political developments in the US and geopolitical issues.

"Although [the Bank of Thailand's] monetary policy remains in an accommodative stance to support a recovery in domestic economic activities, it has to be admitted that the yield of the Thai bond market, particularly long-term yield, could rise in line with the direction of foreign bond yields," K-Research said.

Bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1397570/bot-sounds-alarm-on-baht-speculation)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - baht will stay secure
Post by: thaiga on January 27, 2018, 01:26:16 PM
What do you believe, first the problem that the Baht was too strong,They wanted it to weaken, now, well you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what's going on, why don't the uk follow suit. Investment abroad totaled $2.9 billion in January to April, according to the central bank. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/thai-firms-bypass-military-government-to-invest-record-abroad)

BOT chief says baht will stay secure

Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Veerathai Santiprabhob vowed on Friday to keep the baht secure against the weakened US dollar and said the baht and other regional currencies would regain strength more quickly than normal.

“The BOT is ready to review additional measures to safeguard the baht against any abnormal currency movements,” he said.

The baht on Friday opened at 31.44 per US dollar, a 50-month high going back to October 2013. It also trade Bt31.35 per US dollar in this morning.

nationmultimedia.com (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30337219)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: Johnnie F. on February 06, 2018, 10:30:57 AM
Europeans and Brits can keep breathing, they get a little more now for their Euros and Pounds, but Americans still need to keep the belt a little tight, though Happy Donald keeps boasting how much he has done for the economy, probably mistaking business owners' profit interests as the economy. The Fed is expected to keep the dollar inflation rate accelerating by raising the interest rates not only three but four times this year..
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Cruelest month
Post by: thaiga on April 09, 2018, 03:54:19 PM
Cruelest month for baht could be worse than usual this year

A seasonal downturn in the baht driven by dividend outflows and a lack of tourists could be worse than usual this year amid rising global bond yields and less liquidity, according to Kasikornbank.

A dropoff in tourists after the Songkran festival in mid-April and payouts to foreign stock investors usually spell declines for the currency in May. Last year was the first time the baht managed to rally in that month since 2009.

Rising developed-market bond yields and the gradual winding down of stimulus by the European Central Bank could prompt overseas investors to rebalance their portfolios away from emerging markets like Thailand, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital market research at Kasikornbank.

“The baht may see bigger downward pressure this year than usual,” he said. “Many clients are asking about this dividend season, while exporters are hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel.”

A decline in the baht may provide some relief to exporters who have complained about an 11% rally against the dollar over the last 12 months. Some 87 billion baht ($2.8 billion) of stock dividends will be paid out to non-resident investors in April and May this year, Kasikornbank estimates.

If the dollar rises beyond its 50-day moving average against the baht, that could open the way for the Thai currency to test its support area between the March 2 low at 31.587 and the 31.638 trough on Feb 22. Beyond that, the next support lies at the low of 31.957 reached on Feb 9.

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1443458/cruelest-month-for-baht-could-be-worse-than-usual-this-year)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - no need for alarm over foreign reserves
Post by: thaiga on May 08, 2018, 02:03:19 PM
Yes of course it makes perfect sense, nothing to worry about. :spin

BOT calls for calm over valuation loss on foreign reserves

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) on Monday said there was no need for alarm over a news report concerning its foreign reserves, explaining that that the valuation loss that had been made was the natural result of its responsibility for currency stability during a period of baht appreciation.

In response to news on social media involving the central bank’s loss, BOT assistant governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul denied that it had engaged in currency speculation. However, the BOT had bought foreign currency in order to prevent the baht appreciating too quickly, she said.

The increase in foreign reserves followed an influx of foreign capital as a result of several consecutive years of current-account surpluses and foreign direct investment, she said.

When the baht appreciates, a valuation loss occurs in regard to the country’s foreign reserves, whereas there is there is a valuation gain when the baht weakens, the assistant governor explained.

When the economy improves and the currency tends to strengthen, the central bank usually registers a valuation loss, but if the economy worsens and the baht depreciates, it normally records a valuation gain, she said.

At the end of last year, the BOT had about US$240 billion (Bt7.64 trillion) in foreign reserves.

If the Thai currency appreciated by Bt1 against the US dollar, the BOT would have an instant valuation loss of Bt240 billion on such a level of reserves.

On the other hand, if the baht depreciated by Bt1, the central bank would make an immediate valuation gain of Bt240 billion, Chantavarn said.

She was also at pains to explain that the foreign reserves were still in the form of foreign currency, which was something that did not deteriorate, unlike like agricultural products or commodities as the social-media reporting had compared them to.

nationmultimedia.com (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30344802)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht tests 7-month low on continued outflows
Post by: thaiga on June 24, 2018, 05:28:34 PM
Baht tests 7-month low on continued outflows

The baht will test its seven-month low this week as foreigners continue to move out of the currency on higher interest rates and an improved economic outlook in the United States.

The baht continued to slide, ending last Friday at 32.91 to the dollar, a drop of 1.73% from a week before, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The Kasikorn Research Center said the currency was approaching its seven-month low of 33 against the greenback and could reach that point this week.

It predicted the baht would stay in the range of 32.80-33.40 to the dollar during the coming week.

The baht's depreciation was due to continued foreign outflows from Thai stocks and bonds after the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark lending rate and amid worries about trade wars between the US and its trading partners.

The US central bank increased the Fed funds rate on June 13 to a range of 1.75%-2.0% and signalled more hikes before the end of the year.

Last week, foreign investors were net sellers of 13.8 billion baht from the Stock Exchange of Thailand. They have moved 176 billion baht out of Thai stocks since the beginning of the year.

US economic data to be released this week, including first-quarter gross domestic product, could apply additional pressure on the baht, the research arm of Kasikornbank said.

The US will announce its GDP figures on Thursday.

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/1491586/baht-tests-7-month-low-on-continued-outflows)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht may fall further, says trader
Post by: thaiga on June 29, 2018, 02:39:30 PM
Baht may fall further, says trader

The baht, set to become the worst-performing currency in emerging Asia this quarter, doesn’t look like it’s going to bottom anytime soon, according to Mizuho Bank Ltd.

Foreign funds have pulled a net $3.8 billion from the nation’s equity market since the end of March, the most since at least 1999 on a quarterly basis, amid concerns that an escalation in trade frictions between the US and China will weigh on Thailand’s current-account surplus -- a source of attraction for the country’s currency bulls.

The baht had been the second-best performer in emerging Asia in the first quarter, underscoring the spread of the rout in developing economies to countries with relatively strong fundamentals.

Central banks in emerging markets -- from Argentina to Turkey -- have gone on the defensive as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields fuelled concern that a failure to tighten monetary policy risks a currency sell-off and an acceleration in inflation.

“The market’s focus has shifted to trade frictions and the currencies of economies with high dependence to trade are becoming more vulnerable to sell-offs,” said Masakatsu Fukaya, an emerging-market currency trader at Mizuho Bank. “My view is that the dollar will remain strong for a while. People are becoming concerned that a trade war will lead to overall shrinkage in global trade, so that could potentially threaten Thailand’s current-account surplus.”

The baht has weakened almost 6% against the dollar this quarter to trade at 33.10 as of 2.15pm in Bangkok Thursday. Overseas investors withdrew net $251 million from the bond market since the end of March, the first net quarterly outflows since the last three months of 2016, according to data from the Thai Bond Market Association.

“Factors that supported the first-quarter gains are now turning around to bite the currencies of export-oriented economies,” Mizuho’s Fukaya said. “We may even see the baht test the 33.50 level.”

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1493946/asias-worst-performing-currency-may-fall-further-mizuho)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht drops faster than peers against dollar
Post by: thaiga on June 30, 2018, 01:17:47 PM
Baht drops faster than peers against dollar

While the currency's decline was high for a two-month period, its first-half fall was par for the region

The baht depreciated against the US dollar at a faster pace than its regional peers in Asia over the past two months, weighed down by external uncertainties, and its downward trend is expected to continue, says a senior central bank official.

Offshore fund outflows resulted from the more hawkish stance than expected of the US Federal Reserve, dividend repatriation of multinational companies and the Sino-US trade spat contributing to the baht's weakness, said Don Nakornthab, the Bank of Thailand's senior director of the economic and policy department.

The baht and the South Korean won were the best-performing currencies in Asia last year, but they fell 3% versus the greenback from the end of May to June 22.

The baht's volatility -- a 6.2% drop between the beginning of this year and June 22 -- was in line with the region's showing.

The baht on Friday weakened to 33.19 to the dollar from 33.12 on Thursday. Year-to-date, the baht dropped 1.8%, outperforming the won, which lost 4.5%, the Indonesian rupiah (down 5.7%), the Philippine peso (down 6.5%) and the Indian rupee (down 7.2%).

Based on the baht's downward trend, the country's international reserves could decline to 3.4 times short-term debt from 3.5 times in May, but the level is still considered high enough to provide a cushion against any shocks, Mr Don said.

Thailand's international reserves fell to US$209.7 billion (6.9 trillion baht) as of June 22 from $211.5 billion a week ago and $212.3 billion as of June 8.

According to Bank of Thailand data, its foreign portfolio showed a net outflow of $1.85 billion in May, up from $1.37 billion in April, cashing a net of $4.1 billion from Thailand year to date. Of the total $1.85 billion, $1.67 billion was pulled out of the stock market and the remainder from bonds.

Mr Don said the baht's retreat could hurt the country's imports, particularly in capital goods, machinery and equipment products, while private investment remains promising, with capacity utilisation at 69.4% in May, reaching the highest level since September 2017.

The baht's depreciation could also benefit the country's exports.

The central bank forecasts double-digit growth for the first half of the year. The country's outbound shipments surged 11.3% for the first five months, while growing 13.1% in May.

The Commerce Ministry and the Bank of Thailand use a different base for export and import data. The former uses customs-cleared figures, while the latter uses payment-based numbers.

"The export growth rate is expected to moderate in the second half because of the high-base effect," Mr Don said. "Even if there is no trade war, global trade will slow down from the latter half, in line with the global economic outlook."

The central bank said the country's economic outlook and monetary conditions continued to gain traction in May, thanks to strong exports and domestic demand.

Merchandise exports expanded on the back of strong external demand and a rise in global crude oil prices, while domestic demand expanded robustly.

The expansion in external and domestic demand was attributed to the growth in manufacturing. Robust growth was also spotted in public spending and private investment, while the tourism sector continued to grow.

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/1494862/baht-drops-faster-than-peers-against-dollar)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht fluctuations to continue
Post by: thaiga on July 04, 2018, 12:21:30 PM
BoT: Baht fluctuations to continue

The Bank of Thailand expects baht fluctuations to continue, but in a limited range, due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, trade barriers, and the European Central Bank's plan to stop bond purchases.

BoT governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said Tuesday that other factors to a volatile baht included midterm elections in the United States which could have impacts on US trade barriers and thus worldwide financial and equity markets.

The private sector must manage currency risks, he said.

"In the past few days, regional currencies fluctuated wildly, especially the yuan, the currency of a targeted country in the trade war," the BoT governor said.

However, impacts on the baht would be limited because Thailand depended less on foreign currencies, had huge foreign-exchange reserves and continuously posted current account surpluses, Mr Veerathai said.

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/1496794/bot-baht-fluctuations-to-continue)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
Post by: thaiga on July 13, 2018, 12:06:12 PM
How is it when the pound starts to rise on the third day it's back to where it started :o

Central bank taking action on rapid baht moves

The Bank of Thailand has taken action on rapid moves in the baht, the governor said on Thursday, as the currency weakened to nine-month lows against the US dollar.

It is the central bank's policy to smooth out any excessive moves in the baht, governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told reporters.

The baht traded at 33.27 against the dollar at 11.48am, having depreciated by 3.6% since the middle of June.

Global trade tensions have yet to have a direct impact on Thailand, but there may be some effect from supply chains, Mr Veerathai said.

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1502130/central-bank-taking-action-on-rapid-baht-moves)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht expected to strengthen by year-end
Post by: thaiga on July 23, 2018, 01:06:18 PM
Baht expected to strengthen by year-end

 THE BAHT is expected to reverse course in the next few months, and the central bank is likely to raise the key interest rate in September, Tim Leelahaphan, an economist at the Standard Chartered Bank Thailand, has forecast.

Closely monitored risk factors to the economy include trade tensions and the impact of the boat tragedy in Phuket earlier this month on the tourism industry.

The baht would strengthen to Bt32.5 per US dollar from the current level of Bt33.5 per dollar by the end of the year, he said.

The dollar has been boosted recently by the expansion of the US economy and the rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. But large spending and tax cuts by the US government will lead to a larger budget deficit, which would weaken the US government’s financial position, he said.

A larger budget deficit would lower confidence in the US dollar causing it to weaken, he predicted.

He also predicted that the Bank of Thailand was unlikely to defy the trend of rising interest rates. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee recently changed its tone about the policy rate. They have started to discuss rate normalisation after keeping a historically low rate of 1.5 per cent so long, he said.

The central bank is likely to raise interest rate twice this year, by 25 basis points each time, to 2 per cent by the end of the year.

Another key reason for the rate hike is that the central bank will choose a gradual rate hike rather than a sharp increase later in order to avoid market jitters, he argued.

As the economic growth moves towards a broad-based growth, it could accelerate inflation, he warned.

He pointed out that Standard Chartered’s forecast differs from the consensus view that the central bank will keep the policy rate on hold for the rest of the year and will start to raise the rate next year.

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong was also against an early rate hike, as he feared it would adversely affect consumers.

Tim believed that pressure from Apisak would not prevent the central bank from increasing the rate.

“Apisak also conceded that it is the responsibility of the central bank regarding interest rate policy,” Tim said.

Standard Chartered has forecast economic growth rate of about 4.3 per cent this year, compared with 4.5 per cent projected by the Finance Ministry.

Upside risk could be possible if the government makes clear in September about the date of the next general election.

The lifting of the political ban will lead to political campaigns across the country and that could boost consumer spending, especially upcountry, he said.

He was optimistic that the trade dispute between the United States and China would not get out of hand.

He, however, said close monitoring is needed to see how the trade disputes would play out.

Some analysts believed that trade tensions could escalate into a full-blown trade war as US President Donald Trump recently made a fresh threat to impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth US$500 billion.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the trade dispute between the US, with major economies China, Europe, Mexico and Canada could slash global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points by 2020. It maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3.9 per cent this year but said trade volume would be less than expected, rising 4.5 per cent against its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent.

Another risk factor is the fallout from the boat tragedy in Phuket on the tourism industry, as more than 40 Chinese tourists lost their lives.

Tim said he did not think it would have a big impact on Chinese tourist arrivals.

nationmultimedia.com (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30350582)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Trade war worries may lead to baht instability
Post by: thaiga on August 05, 2018, 08:57:39 PM
Trade war worries may lead to baht instability

The baht could go up or down this week as the world economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty over a US-China trade spat.

The currency slightly appreciated to 33.18 baht against the greenback on Wednesday and Thursday before shedding 29 satang to close at 33.47 on Friday, the Bank of Thailand reported, citing the average rate quoted by commercial banks.

CIMB Thai Bank predicted the baht to move between 33.10 and 33.60 this week, saying its direction could be determined by sentiments over the trade conflict between the United States and China.

The top two biggest economies are locked in a tit-for-tat tariff dispute, with Beijing threatening to retaliate against Washington by imposing levies on US goods.

Ministers attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Singapore have voiced concern about the dispute's impact on global trade.

The Monetary Policy Committee will hold a meeting on Wednesday, and CIMB Thai and Kasikorn Research Center both expected no change in the policy rate.

The Bank of Thailand has kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5% since 2015 to help drive economic growth. But the central bank said it planned to tighten monetary policy as the economy continued to expand.

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/1516290/trade-war-worries-may-lead-to-baht-instability)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - pound hits 11 month low
Post by: thaiga on August 07, 2018, 02:54:16 PM
FOREX-Sterling drops on Brexit fears, trade tensions boost dollar

Concerns about Britain's plan toleave the European Union sent the pound to an 11-month lowagainst the greenback on Monday, while U.S.-China trade tensionshelped boost the U.S. currency.

"Some of the political noise we're been receiving across thepond reintroduced the Brexit discount into sterling," said MazenIssa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York.

The pound GBP= fell as low as $1.2917 before retracing to$1.2940, down 0.50 percent on the day.

Worries that Italy will ramp up spending and challengeEuropean Union budget rules, and a drop in German industrialorders in June, also weighed on the euro. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1UU1K1urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1UX0ZJ

The euro zone single currency EUR=EBS fell to a five-weeklow of $1.1527 before rising back to $1.1552, down 0.13 percent.

Technical support around $1.15 may prop up the euro incoming days.

"I think a move below that would require a fresh catalyst,"said Issa.

The dollar, meanwhile, was boosted by trade war rhetoric.

China proposed retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth ofU.S. goods ranging from liquefied natural gas to some aircrafton Friday, as a senior Chinese diplomat cast doubt on prospectsof talks with Washington to solve their bitter trade conflict. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N1UU4QP

Some analysts see trade tensions as beneficial for the U.S.dollar as the economy is better placed to handle protectionismthan emerging markets, and as tariffs may narrow the U.S. tradedeficit.

"Trade tensions are very much dollar positive so I suspectthat's contributing to the dollar gains today," said ErikNelson, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

Chinese stocks .SSEC fell 1.3 percent on Monday. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N1UX3LX

Since mid-April, the dollar index .DXY has gained 6percent while an emerging-market local currency bond exchangetraded fund LEMB.K has fallen more than 10 percent over thesame period.

Against a broad basket of currencies .DXY , the dollar waslast up 0.24 percent to 95.367. It is within striking distanceof a more-than-one-year peak of 95.652 reached on July 19, whichis also seen as having technical resistance.

The main U.S. economic focus this week will be Friday'sconsumer price inflation report for July, which is expected toshow a 0.2 percent increase in core inflation in the month,according to a Reuters poll.

(Reuters) nasdaq.com (https://www.nasdaq.com/article/forexsterling-drops-on-brexit-fears-trade-tensions-boost-dollar-20180806-00803)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - baht shines as rate rise beckons
Post by: thaiga on September 28, 2018, 11:45:35 AM
baht shines as rate rise beckons

The baht has been a standout performer in what’s been another tough quarter for many emerging currencies. Along with an outsize current-account surplus, the country is luring investors thanks to prospects for the first interest-rate hike since 2011.

The baht has strengthened almost 2% this quarter against the dollar, the top performer among 12 major Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. It’s also good enough for No.2 in emerging markets, behind Mexico’s peso, which has benefited from a US trade deal. The gain takes back some of the previous quarter’s loss, when the baht put in Asia’s worst performance.

"The baht got an additional support during this quarter as the Bank of Thailand became hawkish, with the economy showing a solid recovery and inflation returning back to the central bank’s target range," said Takahide Irimura, the head of economic research in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co, which managed $121 billion as of the end of June. "The currency may continue to perform well into the final quarter of the year, when tourism revenue seasonally picks up and pushes up the current-account surplus."

After years of wallowing in the "middle-income trap" -- subpar growth for countries that made the initial jump up the development ladder -- Thailand’s economy has been kicking into higher gear as its government gets going on infrastructure projects.

Prospects for a political transition have also emerged. A royal endorsement this month paved the way for a long-delayed general election, boosting hopes that spending related to the vote will lift consumption and jobs.

With growth clocking a pace just under 4% for a second straight year and forecasts for a similar pace next year, according to the IMF, inflation pressures are expected to pick up.

The baht reached a three-month high last week after the Bank of Thailand said the need for accommodative policy is expected to decline. Two of seven voters on policy favoured an immediate hike in the 1.5% benchmark rate.

The nation’s current-account surplus of nearly 10% of gross domestic product has also provided support in a period of emerging-market rout triggered by selloffs in Turkey and Argentina.

Foreign investors poured almost $3.5 billion net into the Thai bonds since the quarter began, and though they pulled some out of equities, the SET Index has been the best performer among major Asian markets, headed for its biggest quarterly rally since 2013.

Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob signalled on Monday that policymakers will be careful not to hurt growth prospects if they do raise rates, with a pause likely after any such move.

bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/1548362/in-a-stormy-quarter-baht-shines-as-rate-rise-beckons)
Title: Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - strong baht take toll on industrial sentiment
Post by: Newsy on October 19, 2018, 12:50:23 AM
bangkokpost.com (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1560218/oil-prices-strong-baht-take-toll-on-industrial-sentiment)

Oil prices, strong baht take toll on industrial sentiment

The Thailand Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) dropped in September due to concerns about a hike of oil prices and the baht's appreciation, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported on Thursday.

The survey in September showed the index stood at 91.5 points, down from 92.5 in August.

"Most business operators are concerned about oil prices, which hit US$83 per barrel in the global market. They affect the country's overall transportation cost," said FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree.

"The baht strength is now a worrisome issue when compared to the currency movements in Southeast Asia countries," he added.

The FTI foresaw pressure from the prolonged trade war between the United States and China to affect export sentiment but the promised general election will push the index to 105.6 over the next three months.

The FTI index surveys 45 industry sectors, with 1,045 member businesses in the country. The index below 100 indicates declining confidence of the industry sector and above 100 demonstrates its better economic mood.