Author Topic: Baht strengtening/weakening  (Read 29730 times)

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht, bonds head for weekly declines
« Reply #90 on: January 10, 2014, 03:51:59 PM »
Thailand's baht headed for a fourth weekly slide and the 10-year bonds fell as anti-government protests since October prompted global investors to cut holdings.

The currency traded near its 2010 low, while yields rose the most since November as global funds pulled a net US$129 million from Thai bonds in January.

Demonstrations scheduled next week in parts of central Bangkok may cost the economy as much as 1 billion baht ($30 million) a day, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. The political unrest and the Federal Reserve's stimulus reduction may extend outflows, Bank of Thailand deputy governor Pongpen Ruengvirayudh said on Wednesday.

"While the Fed's tapering is weighing on emerging-market assets as a whole, Thailand is seeing more downward pressure due to the unrest," said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. "The baht and the Thai assets look relatively weak, and the outlook is bearish for the time being."

The baht declined 0.1% this week to 33.037 per dollar and reached 33.148 on Jan 6, the weakest level since 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It was steady on Friday.

The yield on the 3.625% debt due June 2023 climbed 19 basis points from a week ago, the most since the five days through Nov 1, to 4.08% as of 8.17am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rate, unchanged on Friday, was at a one-month high.

Security officials and demonstrators should avoid clashes, Winthai Suvaree, the deputy army spokesman, said on Thursday, as anti-government groups plan to widen their protest in Bangkok next Monday, blocking off some major intersections to pressure caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to delay the Feb 2 election to allow time for political reforms to take place.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, increased 15 basis points from a week ago to 7.02%. It dropped 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point, on Friday.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht 'could come under severe pressure'
« Reply #91 on: January 11, 2014, 12:04:13 PM »
CONTINUING political unrest set to culminate in next week's "Bangkok shutdown" campaign by opponents of the government is adding to pressure on the baht, which amid other factors could weaken to 34 against the US dollar if there are violent clashes.

Sutee Losoponkul, first executive vice president of CIMB Thai Bank and head of its treasury group, said yesterday that the bank saw no immediate prospect for large capital inflows, and the baht was unlikely to regain strength before the political situation is resolved.

But even if the immediate political conflict is calmed down, until there is assurance that the previously planned infrastructure mega-projects will get back on track, the economy will not be on a firm growth path. This is despite the fact that Thailand remains a good place to invest in terms of strong economic fundamentals and strategic location, Sutee said.

CIMB Thai expects the baht this year to average 33.5-33.6 against the greenback but could hit 34 if the US Federal Reserve ends its bond-purchasing programme. And that 34 mark could arrive much more suddenly if riots erupt on Monday, he said.

He also noted that the weaker baht was not yet having much effect in terms of fuelling an export recovery. Meanwhile foreign tourists are starting to take their vacations elsewhere, fearing violence in Thailand, adding another unwanted blow to the baht.

CIMB Thai warns traders to pay serious attention to foreign-currency forward contracts to mitigate risk.

"It is not only Thailand that is facing currency depreciation, neighbouring countries such as Malaysia are also. Therefore, gaining margins from the baht's depreciation is not the right solution for exporters. They should think seriously about hedging tools and focus on improving operational efficiency to compete with traders in neighbouring countries," Sutee said.

Meanwhile HSBC Global Research says in its "Asian FX Focus 2014" outlook that the house is cautious on the baht on a number of fronts, both domestic and external.

Last year Thailand's forex cover fell to its lowest level since 2006. While the ratio was still higher than others in Asia, and the Bank of Thailand is ready and able to intervene to reduce foreign-exchange volatility, the weak growth outlook may curb efforts to contain baht weakness. Indeed, the central bank could cut the policy rate again in light of slower growth potential and political pressures, the house said.

Sentiment is likely to remain cautious going into the February 2 election, it said, which the main opposition party is boycotting. While political headwinds are not new for the baht, they are now having a larger impact on the currency. The Fed's tapering of its quantitative easing programme has also made foreign investors more selective, and Thailand's narrower current-account deficit has meant that capital flows are having a larger direct impact on the baht than in the past.

Roong Mallikamas, BOT director of macroeconomic policy, said the baht's depreciation encouraged importers to increase their forex-hedging volumes.

In November alone, importers' hedging volumes increased to 27 per cent from 17 per cent in October, while hedging activities by exporters in November increased to 34 per cent, from 30 per cent the previous month, she noted. Yet, trend of hedging by exporters is lower than the average volumes of 30-40 per cent.

"We expect the trend of baht depreciation will make hedging attractive to importers because currency volatility is [a major] risk for trading businesses."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-could-come-under-severe-pressure-30224002.html
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht expected to swing between 32.95 - 33.10 per US dollar
« Reply #92 on: January 13, 2014, 12:54:56 PM »
BANGKOK 13 January 2014 (NNT) — The Thai baht opened and stabilized at 33.07 - 33.08 baht per US dollar this morning. Analysts expect the value to swing between 32.95 - 33.10 during the protests.

Financial analysts from Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) reported that the baht opened at 33.07 - 33.08 baht per US dollar today, similar to the closing value last Friday, before making a high at 33.10/11 baht per US dollar and later stabilizing.

The weakening baht has been attributed to the ongoing demonstrations by the PDRC's attempt to immobilize Bangkok.

However, analysts have predicted a stronger baht if no violence erupts, adding that today’s value should swing around 32.95 - 33.10 baht per US dollar.

NNT
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht advances most in three months
« Reply #93 on: January 14, 2014, 06:01:28 PM »
Thailand's baht strengthened the most in almost three months as no violence was reported during the blockade of Bangkok by anti-government demonstrators.

"The protest is likely to remain peaceful,'' Charamporn Jotikasthira, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said in an emailed statement on Tuesday.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's administration has faced more than two months of street rallies demanding her resignation and electoral reforms. The baht strengthened for a third day as the latest US jobs data eased concern the Federal Reserve (Fed) will quicken reductions in its debt purchases that have buoyed emerging markets.

"At least we don't see any significant developments on the domestic political front,'' said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Bangkok. "There's some support from US data side for the baht. Still, political unrest is lingering and the baht is unlikely to gain sharply.''

The currency climbed 0.6%, the most since Oct 17, to 32.78 per dollar as of 2.06pm, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 32.745 earlier, the strongest level since Jan 2. One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, increased six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7.2%.

US employers added 74,000 workers last month, the least since January 2011, official figures showed on Jan 10. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for an increase of 197,000. The Fed said in December it will cut its monthly debt buying by US$10 billion to $75 billion starting January amid signs of an improvement in the labor market.

The yield on the 3.875 percent government bonds due June 2019 was little changed at 3.44%t, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht set for best week
« Reply #94 on: January 17, 2014, 02:32:52 PM »
Thailand's baht was set for its biggest weekly gain since October as anti-government protests lost momentum in Bangkok. Bonds rose on speculation the central bank will cut borrowing costs next week.

The currency climbed to a three week-high after the number of people manning roadblocks at Victory Monument and Asoke, two of seven protest sites in the capital, fell below a hundred at times Thursday, down from more than a thousand when the demonstrations began at the start of the week. The Bank of Thailand will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2% on Jan 22, according to seven of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg. One forecast no change.

"The risk premium for the baht has come down," said Pareena Phuangsiri, an analyst at Kasikornbank Pcl in Bangkok. "It's not really a shutdown as people are still able to come to work, and now more cars are on the street. However, there still is the political uncertainty which will cap gains."

The local currency climbed 0.7% this week, the most since the five-day period through Oct 18, and 0.1% on Friday to 32.77 per United States dollar as of 9.30am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The baht dropped 2% in the past month and reached 33.148 on Jan 6, the weakest level since 2010.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell eight basis points from a week ago and six basis points today to 7.16%.

bangkokpost

I see the pound is losing ground
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht declines most in a week
« Reply #95 on: January 22, 2014, 12:17:42 PM »
Thailand's baht fell the most in a week after caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra declared a state of emergency in Bangkok on Tuesday evening as escalating attacks on protesters threatened to derail elections set for Feb 2.

The move marks a shift in strategy by Ms Yingluck, who put up mild resistance as demonstrators calling for an unelected council to take power occupied buildings and streets over the past three months. Bombings at anti-government rallies and shootings in the capital have killed one person and injured 70 since Jan 17. Global funds bought $139 million more Thai bonds than they sold in the first two days of this week amid speculation the central bank will lower borrowing costs on Wednesday.

"The situation is getting worse, and the state of emergency is another negative factor" for Thailand, said Disawat Tiaowvanich, a foreign-exchange trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl. "We can't see how it will end. The baht will remain under downward pressure."

The baht depreciated 0.2%, the most since Jan 15, to 32.89 per dollar as of 8.32am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has weakened 5.2% since the protests began on Oct 31. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 7.15%.

Rate Speculation

Suthep Thaugsuban, a former opposition party lawmaker leading the protests, vowed to continue blockades of major Bangkok intersections that began on Jan 13. Thailand last experienced a state of emergency to combat protests in 2010, when Mr Suthep's Democrat Party held power and oversaw a crackdown on protesters loyal to former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Yingluck's elder brother, that cost the lives of more than 90 people.

Two-year government bonds, which are the most sensitive to the policy outlook, were steady. The yield on the 3.125% debt due December 2015 was unchanged at 2.41%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Bank of Thailand will likely cut its policy rate to 2% from 2.25% on Wednesday, according to 14 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Seven forecast no change. The central bank delivered a surprise 25-basis-point reduction at its previous meeting on Nov 27. The decision is due 2.30pm local time Wednesday.

bangkokpost
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sicho

  • Guest
Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #96 on: January 24, 2014, 09:11:15 AM »
The Baht continues to fall rapidly against Sterling, standing this morning at THB54.5139, according to Go Currency.
 

Offline Al

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #97 on: January 24, 2014, 09:25:49 AM »
It seems, to me at least, that over the past couple of months that the Baht has remained in a fairly small range against the dollar.  It is currently at THB32.8604 according to XE Currency.
 

sicho

  • Guest
Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #98 on: January 24, 2014, 09:30:16 AM »
The US$ has been falling against Sterling recently (65.893 this morning). That would explain its different trend against the THB.
 

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht and bonds fall
« Reply #99 on: January 31, 2014, 12:55:38 PM »
Baht and bonds fall on election fears

The baht headed for its worst week in almost a month and government bonds dropped after global funds pulled money from local assets amid concern this weekend’s election will turn violent.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is deploying 10,000 police in Bangkok alone for the Feb 2 poll, seeking to avoid a repeat of violence that obstructed advance voting on Jan 26.

The baht hit a three-week low as official data showed foreign investors sold $499 million more Thai stocks and bonds than they bought this week through Thursday. Most Asian currencies fell this week as the Federal Reserve cut stimulus that’s buoyed emerging markets.

“We have seen demand for the dollar on concern about the situation before the election,” said Disawat Tiaowvanich, a foreign-exchange trader at Bangkok Bank. “There’s the Fed’s tapering that caused emerging-market selloffs and plus, we have this political unrest. No one would like to put money in Thailand unless we have solutions.”

The baht dropped 0.5% this week, the most since the period ended Jan 3, to 33 per dollar as of 9.10am, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It declined 0.1% on Friday and reached 33.024, the weakest level since Jan 13, taking the month’s loss to 0.7%.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose four basis points from a week ago to 7.37%. The gauge dropped eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point on Friday.

Street Protests

Suthep Thaugsuban, the former opposition party power-broker leading street protests, has announced plans for a march across Bangkok on the day of the vote. Ten people have been killed and 584 injured since the demonstrations began on Oct 31, according to the Bangkok Emergency Medical Service.

The Fed said this week it will trim monthly bond purchases to US$65 billion (2,080 billion baht) from $75 billion, sticking to a plan for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus.

The yield on the 3.125% debt due December 2015 rose two basis points this week to 2.44%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate was little changed on Friday.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht gains most in three weeks
« Reply #100 on: February 03, 2014, 01:22:55 PM »
Thailand's baht rose the most in almost three weeks after voters cast ballots across 90% of the country Sunday without triggering major violence.

The baht strengthened 0.3%, the most since Jan 14, to 32.915 per United States dollar as of 8.56am, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency fell every day last week, declining 0.6%.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she was pleased with the situation because there was no violence, after polls closed at 3pm local time Sunday. She deployed 10,000 police in Bangkok, having declared a state of emergency to avoid a repeat of the disturbances that obstructed advance voting in the south and most of the capital on Jan 26. Global funds have pulled a net US$4.7 billion from the country's bonds and stocks since the protests began Oct 31, official data show.

"There was some concern surrounding the election but it ended without any chaos, leading to some buy-backs of the baht," said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Bangkok. "But a rebound in the baht may be limited as there's no change in the situation with political unrest continuing."

Results delayed

The country's third general election since a 2006 coup will do little to quell street protests by groups demanding Yingluck’s resignation and the installation of an appointed government. The results of the poll, which the main opposition Democrat Party boycotted, won’t be announced until by-elections are held in dozens of districts where protesters blocked candidates from registering.

Ten people have been killed and almost 600 injured since the protests began. Suthep Thaugsuban, a former Democrat powerbroker who has led a three-month campaign to oust Ms Yingluck, said the election will be annulled because his group blocked candidates from registering in some provinces and shut down polling stations during advance voting. Protesters have also occupied several major intersections in the city since Jan 13 in a bid to prevent Ms Yingluck's government from functioning.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 7.4%.

The yield on the 3.125% government bonds due December 2015 declined one basis point to 2.44%.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Thai Baht gains most in a month
« Reply #101 on: February 17, 2014, 03:00:09 PM »
Thailand’s baht strengthened the most in a month and bonds rose after police began dismantling anti-government demonstration sites.

Riot police removed barriers, sandbags and tents outside Government House on Feb 14, when onshore financial markets were closed for a public holiday.

Gross domestic product increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, more than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey for a 0.3%, official data showed Monday. Most Asian currencies rose today after China reported record new credit in January.

“Thai protests are still going on, but at least we don’t see a worsening of the situation,” Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “That makes it easier for investors to buy back the baht while emerging markets are in a recovery mood.”

The baht climbed 0.7% from Feb 13, the most since Jan 14, to 32.364 per dollar as of 11:09am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.28 earlier, the strongest level since Dec 19. One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped five basis points on Monday, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.35%.

Since the anti-government protests began on Oct 31, demonstrators have occupied ministries, blockaded Bangkok intersections and disrupted polling during the Feb 2 election to pressure caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to step down. The movement has waned in recent weeks, with numbers dwindling to fewer than 100 at some demonstration sites.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht drops most in six weeks
« Reply #102 on: February 18, 2014, 12:40:51 PM »
Yesterday Thailand’s baht strengthened the most in a month - today Baht drops most in six weeks :uhm

Thailand's baht fell the most in six weeks on concern anti-government protests will continue to crimp economic growth.

Gross domestic product increased 0.6% in the last three months of 2013, the least since the first quarter of 2012, official data showed Monday. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban called on supporters on Monday to join what he called the "final battle" against caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra tomorrow. The baht touched a two-month high on Tuesday and its 14-day relative strength index reached 28 on Monday, below the 30 threshold that suggests to some traders a turnaround is likely.

"The impact on the economy from the protests will be quite severe in the current quarter," said Toru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc in Tokyo. "For the baht to see further appreciation from here, we need much better news like the ending of the demonstrations. From a technical perspective, the baht seems to be overbought."

The baht dropped 0.5%, the most since Jan 2, to 32.43 per United States dollar as of 9.21am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.207 earlier, the strongest level since Dec 19. The currency has weakened 4% since the end of October, when the protests began.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 6.27%.

The economy grew 2.9% in 2013, compared with a revised 6.5% the previous year, according to the data released on Monday. The growth was in line with the central bank's expectations and current monetary policy is accommodative, Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said Monday.

The yield on the 3.125% government bonds due December 2015 was steady at 2.35%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield has dropped 24 basis points this year.

bangkokpost
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sicho

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Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #103 on: February 18, 2014, 01:24:44 PM »
Given what's going on in Bangkok right now, I guess we ain't seen nothin' yet.
 

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht posts biggest two-day loss
« Reply #104 on: February 19, 2014, 06:41:54 PM »
The baht completed its biggest two-day loss in almost two months after clashes between anti-government protesters and police in Bangkok killed five people and wounded at least 66.

The baht weakened 0.3% to 32.55 per dollar as of 3.33pm, after touching 32.67 earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its two-day loss to 0.9% was the most since Dec 20. The currency has depreciated 4.4% since the end of October, when the protests began.

''The baht is looking increasingly vulnerable,'' said Nicholas Spiro, London-based managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy. ``It's the bleak prospects for the already weak domestic economy, as the political standoff shows no signs whatsoever of being resolved in a peaceful manner.''

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, increased 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 6.54%.

The yield on the 3.125% government bonds due December 2015 was little changed at 2.34%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield has dropped 25 basis points this year.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht set for worst week of 2014
« Reply #105 on: February 21, 2014, 05:32:32 PM »
Thailand's baht headed for its worst week this year amid concern prolonged political turmoil will deepen an economic slowdown.

Clashes between police and anti-government protesters left five people dead and injured at least 69 on Feb 18, prompting Moody’s Investors Service to warn the unrest may hurt Thailand’s credit profile if it stretches beyond the first half.

The economy grew 2.9% last year, after a revised 6.5% in 2012. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) fell this week as minutes of the United States Federal Reserve's January meeting showed support for stimulus cuts and data from China missed estimates.

"The unrest in Thailand would keep downward bias on the baht," said Pareena Phuangsiri, an analyst at Kasikornbank Plc in Bangkok. "Global factors such as the Fed’s minutes and China data also impacted the baht and the Asian currencies."

The baht depreciated 0.6% this week to 32.525 as of 9.35am in Bangkok, the biggest five-day loss since the period ended Dec 27, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency rose 0.2% on Friday.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 10 basis points on Friday to 6.47%. It rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, this week.

Investors should sell the baht against the dollar before the weekend as Thai farmers plan to step up protests in Bangkok against payment delays in a grain purchase program, Credit Agricole CIB economist Dariusz Kowalczyk wrote in a note on Friday.

'Further instability'

"The risk of further instability over the weekend is high," Kowalczyk wrote.

A preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index in China, Thailand’s largest export market, fell to a seven-month low in February, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics reported on Thursday. Several Fed officials back a continued decrease in bond purchases unless there is an “appreciable change” in the US economic outlook, the minutes released this week showed.

Thailand’s two-year sovereign bonds gained. The yield on the 3.125% notes due in December 2015 fell five basis points this week and one basis point today to 2.31%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the lowest level since the bonds were auctioned in 2010.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht down on political violence
« Reply #106 on: February 25, 2014, 07:00:24 PM »
Investor concerns as violence damages economic growth

Thailand’s baht fell the most in almost a week after explosions at anti-government protest sites killed four people over the weekend, adding to concern there is no end in sight for the unrest that is damaging growth.

Three people, two children and a woman, were killed when an explosion ripped through Bangkok’s main shopping district on Sunday and a five-year-old girl died in a separate blast in the eastern province of Trat on Saturday night, Feb 22.

The economy grew 2.9% last year, slowing from a revised 6.5% pace in 2012, and the National Economic and Social Development Board cut its 2014 expansion forecast this month to 3% to 4% from a previous range of 4% to 5%.

“The prolonged unrest will damage the economy and that’s also an underlying factor weighing on the local currency,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Bangkok. “Losses in the baht may be limited by speculation of month-end demand from exporters.”

The baht fell 0.3% to 32.615 per US dollar as of 8.37 am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has dropped 4.6% since the protests began on Oct 31, the most among the 11 most-traded regional currencies. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 6.59%.

Global funds sold $573 million more local equities than they bought this month through Feb 21 and offloaded a net $20 million of Thai bonds, official data show.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht advances on easing political strife
« Reply #107 on: March 07, 2014, 11:43:06 AM »
Thailand’s baht rose this week, after falling in each of the previous two periods, on increased fund inflows as anti-government protesters removed blockades at four main intersections in central Bangkok.

Global funds purchased $175 million more Thai equities than they sold this week through yesterday and poured a net $250 million into bonds, official data show. Consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since November 2001 amid political unrest that began in October, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said yesterday. The currency reached a two-week high today after concern eased that Russia’s incursion into Ukraine will spark a broader conflict.

“Although political problems persist in Thailand, the direction of the situation is at least turning to better from worse and that spurred some inflows of funds and provided support for the baht and Thai assets,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Easing geopolitical risks in the global market from the Russia-Ukraine situation also helped emerging currencies.”

The baht strengthened 0.9 per cent this week and 0.1 per cent today to 32.272 per dollar as of 9:29am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 32.22 earlier, the strongest level since Feb 18. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose six basis points from a week ago and four basis points today to 6.49 per cent.

Credit Ratings

Even as Thailand’s political turmoil weighs on the economy’s growth outlook, the sovereign credit profile remains consistent with its Baa1 rating, the third-lowest investment grade, and stable outlook, Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday in a statement.

The nation’s long-term foreign-currency rating was affirmed at BBB+, also the third-lowest investment ranking, by Fitch Ratings yesterday. Prolonged and more intense political tension could risk protracted economic weakness and erosion of confidence in the market, which could put pressure on sovereign creditworthiness, Fitch said in a statement.

Two-year government bonds were steady this week before a Bank of Thailand meeting on March 12. The central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate to 2 per cent from 2.25 per cent, according to 10 of 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The rest predict no change.

The yield on the 3.125 per cent government bonds due December 2015 was little changed from Feb 28 at 2.27 per cent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, today.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht falls most in 3 weeks
« Reply #108 on: March 10, 2014, 12:49:50 PM »
Thailand's baht fell by the most in almost three weeks as United States data supported odds that the Federal Reserve will keep trimming monetary stimulus, while a slide in China's exports raised concern about regional growth.

The baht weakened for a third day after a report late last week showed US employers added 175,000 workers in February, the most in three months and more than the 149,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Exports from China, Thailand’s biggest overseas market, unexpectedly decreased 18% in February, the largest decline since 2009.

"The US data reaffirms the Fed will continue to taper, weighing on the baht," said Disawat Tiaowvanich, a currency trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl. "The bad data from China raised concern about regional exports. In addition, we have speculation of Japanese repatriation" of funds before the March 31 year-end, putting pressure on the baht, he said.

The baht fell 0.3%, the biggest loss since Feb 18, to 32.390 per US dollar as of 9.06am  in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency may trade between 32.35 and 32.75 this week, Mr Disawat said.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 6.6%.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) will lower its benchmark interest rate to 2% from 2.25% on March 12, according to 16 of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest forecast no change.

Government bonds declined. The yield on the 3.125% notes due December 2015 rose one basis point to 2.26%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The securities completed a fourth weekly gain on March 7.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: baht fell as the central bank cut borrowing costs
« Reply #109 on: March 14, 2014, 12:41:42 PM »
3-year bonds advance, policy rate cut

Thailand’s three-year government bonds headed for their best week since November and the baht fell as the central bank cut borrowing costs.

The yield dropped to the lowest level since 2010 today after the Bank of Thailand lowered its benchmark interest rate to 2 per cent from 2.25 per cent on March 12, as expected by 16 of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Constitutional Court will consider annulling the Feb 2 incomplete election and ruled on March 12 that Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s 2 trillion-baht ($62 billion) infrastructure bill was illegal.

“The rate cut was partly priced in before the meeting, but helped drag down yields and the baht after the decision,” said Kozo Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Bangkok. “Investors are keeping their eyes on political developments and, on that front, will stay on the sidelines for a while.”

The yield on the 4.125 per cent bonds due November 2016 dropped 11 basis points this week and one basis point today to 2.59 per cent as of 8:33am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was the biggest weekly decline since the five-day period ended Nov 29.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission extended its deadline for Ms Yingluck to submit her defense statement over accusations of negligence in her role in overseeing the government’s rice-buying program by an extra 15 days from today, the commission said in a statement yesterday.

The baht fell 0.1 per cent from March 7 and was little changed today at 32.342 per dollar, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It has weakened 3.7 per cent since the anti-government demonstrations began on Oct 31, the worst performance among Asia’s 11 most-traded currencies after Malaysia’s ringgit.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined three basis points this week to 6.55 per cent. The gauge fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, today.

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht climbs to three-month high
« Reply #110 on: March 19, 2014, 01:47:17 PM »
The baht climbed to a three-month high on Tuesday after the caretaker government approved lifting the state of emergency on Wednesday.

The baht climbed to a three-month high after the Cabinet approved the measure.

The currency rose for a fourth day, gaining 0.4% to 32.115 per dollar as of 1:50 p.m. in Bangkok. It touched 32.104 earlier Tuesday, the strongest level since Dec 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The baht has advanced 1.1% in four days, paring its net loss to 3.1% since the anti-government protests began on Oct 31.

"Easing political concern in Thailand is providing support for the baht," said Tsutomu Soma, manager of the fixed-income business unit at Rakuten Securities Inc in Tokyo. "The baht also benefited from improving global risk sentiment as the fading threat of conflict in Ukraine helped boost stocks."

Thailand's economy may record zero growth or contract this year should the political unrest continue, Thai Chamber of Commerce chairman Isara Vongkusolkit said at a news conference on Tuesday. Expansion is forecast at 2% to 3% in 2014 if a new government can be formed in the third quarter, he said.

Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Yukol Limlamthong said the emergency decree, which was imposed on Jan 22, would be ended Wednesday, three days before it was scheduled to expire automatically on March 23.

Authorities will continue to use the Internal Security Act to control anti-government protests, he said. Thailand's benchmark share gauge rallied for a fourth day after the Standard & Poors Index of US stocks rose 1% on Monday.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 6.5%.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 rose three basis points to 3.69%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield reached 3.65% on Monday, the lowest level since June 2013.

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Re: Baht weakens most since January
« Reply #111 on: March 20, 2014, 04:18:15 PM »
Baht weakens most since January

Thailand's baht fell the most since January and bonds dropped on Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comment that interest rates could be raised "around six months" after the central bank ends its stimulus program.

The Fed announced another US$10 billion reduction of its monthly bond buying on Wednesday to $55 billion and said the purchases could end this fall. The Bank of Thailand reduced its key rate on March 12 to 2% from 2.25%after prolonged political unrest curbed local demand and hurt tourism. The Southeast Asian nation has room to ease policy further and whether the Bank of Thailand will cut or not depends on economic data, spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said March 14.

"The prospect of a US rate hike is dollar-positive and weighs on emerging-market currencies," said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and foreign-exchange strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. "With lingering political unrest that hurts growth, there remains speculation Thailand may cut further."

The baht slumped 0.6%, the most since Jan 2, to 32.343 per dollar as of 8.37am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It rallied 1% over the previous five days. The currency has weakened 3.8% since anti-government protests began on Oct 31. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, was little changed at 6.52%.

Sluggish growth

The Constitutional Court will meet on Friday to consider a petition seeking to annul the country's Feb 2 general election, court president Charoon Intacharn told reporters in Bangkok on Wednesday. Demonstrators will continue protests until caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra gives up power, anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban told supporters this week.

Thailand's economy may record zero growth or contract this year should the unrest continue, Thai Chamber of Commerce Chairman Isara Vongkusolkit said March 18 in Bangkok. Expansion is forecast at 2% to 3% in 2014 if a new government can be formed in the third quarter, he said.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.7%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

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Yesterday it was The baht climbed to a three-month high, today Baht weakens most since January :uhm
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Offline thaiga

Re: A mixed picture for the baht
« Reply #112 on: March 21, 2014, 06:47:58 PM »
Baht, bonds set for weekly slide

Thailand's baht was poised for its first weekly drop this month and bonds declined after the Federal Reserve said it may raise United States borrowing costs.

The currency fell the most since June on Thursday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said interest rates may be increased about six months after the monetary authority ends its stimulus program later this year. The baht touched a three-month high on March 19, a day after Thailand’s cabinet approved ending the state of emergency that was imposed on Jan 22. The decree was lifted before it was set to expire on March 23.

"We have a mixed picture for the baht," said Paisarn Lertkowit, a currency trader at Bangkok Bank Pcl in the city. "The Fed comments should be dollar positive, but there was some easing concern among offshore investors about Thai politics that led to some baht demand."

The Thai currency fell 0.4% from a week ago, the biggest five-day decline since the period ended Feb 21, to 32.40 per US dollar as of 8.35am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency rose 0.2% Friday and touched a three-month high of 32.09 on March 19.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 19 basis points this week and seven basis points on Friday to 6.44%.

The Fed announced another $10 billion reduction of its monthly bond buying this week, to $55 billion, and said the purchases could end in the second half of this year.

Election decision

Thailand's Constitution Court is to decide whether to annul the Feb 2 general election on Friday. Results of the vote have not been tallied because protesters blocked candidates from registering and people from voting in some parts of Bangkok and the country's southern provinces, leaving the government in a caretaker role.

A prolonged political deadlock in Thailand lasting into the second half of the year may prompt a reassessment of its rating outlook, Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, said in an interview in Singapore on Thursday.

The yield on the 3.625% sovereign bonds due June 2023 rose nine basis points this week to 3.8%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield increased two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, on Friday.

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Re: Though the baht is weakening.........
« Reply #113 on: March 29, 2014, 10:17:45 AM »
BoT: Baht just fine

Though the baht is weakening, the currency movement is in line with regional currency depreciation because of external factors prompting foreign investors to shift capital from emerging markets, says a senior Bank of Thailand official.

Chantavarn Sucharitakul, the assistant governor overseeing the financial markets operations group, said foreign investors had priced in domestic political factors, so the outflow is mainly due to the US Federal Reserve’s additional tapering of its monetary stimulus and political tensions in the Crimean peninsula.

Since the Fed’s recent announcement of its asset purchase pullback to US$55 billion from $85 billion, signs showing a faster recovery than expected in the US are driving the weakening trend.

The baht has been stable for the most part and its minimal movement reflects recent news developments both internally and externally, said Mrs Chantavarn.

Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen said the Fed’s monetary stimulus could end this fall, suggesting the US central bank could begin raising its interest rate six months after it halts its monthly bond-buying measure.

Foreign investors' move away from the Thai bourse has been in line with the movement of the SET, suggesting foreign investors are neither overweight nor underweight in their equities, said Mrs Chantavarn.

She said it is difficult to assess the outlook of the baht movement and capital flows as several factors are involved and news reports colour foreign investors' perceptions.

The financial market should be less volatile since pricing in the Fed’s continued tapering, she added.

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Re: Re: Baht volatility at three-month low
« Reply #114 on: April 04, 2014, 12:29:36 PM »
A gauge of expected fluctuations in Thailand’s baht dropped to the lowest level since December as concern eased the nation’s political unrest will deteriorate.

The baht traded in a range of 32.20 and 32.60 per US dollar on all but five days in the past month as an emergency decree was lifted after anti-government protesters removed blockades at four main intersections in Bangkok on March 3.

A gauge of consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest since October 2001 as demonstrations that began on Oct. 31 weighed on spending.

“The political situation has stabilized lately and that limits the downside for the baht, but the unrest is not completely solved which will also put a cap on the upside,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and foreign-exchange strategist at FPG Securities Co in Tokyo. “The baht may remain quite directionless for the time being and volatility will probably remain stable.”

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the baht used to price options, dropped 27 basis points from a week ago to 6.03 percent as of 9 am. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge declined seven basis points today and reached 6 percent earlier, the lowest level since Dec 24. Thailand’s currency dropped 0.2 percent today to 32.537 per dollar, taking this week’s loss to 0.1 percent.

Thai voters went to the polls on March 30 to select half of the nation’s Senate, without facing opposition from protesters who derailed a general election on Feb 2 and have vowed to disrupt any future vote.

Court Petition

The nation’s Constitutional Court agreed on April 2 to accept a petition filed by a group of senators arguing that Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s decision to remove the National Security Council secretary-general from office in 2011 was an unconstitutional abuse of power. A lower court ruled last month that the transfer was unlawful. It said Yingluck would have 15 days to prepare her defence.

Government bonds fell this week. The yield on the 3.625 percent sovereign notes due June 2023 rose four basis points from a week ago to 3.73 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate declined one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, today.

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Re: Baht rises most in three weeks
« Reply #115 on: April 08, 2014, 03:13:12 PM »
Thailand’s baht gained the most in more than three weeks and 10-year government bonds rose as data showed foreigners increased holdings of local debt.

The nation plans to issue 113 billion baht ($3.5 billion) of notes this quarter, compared with 138 billion baht a year earlier, official figures show.

The baht rose, tracking yesterday’s gains in some regional currencies, after US jobs data that trailed estimates pushed back the expected timetable for borrowing-cost increases. Thai officials will meet today to assess the possibility of setting a date for general elections.

Thailand’s currency appreciated 0.4% from April 4, the most since March 13, to 32.41 per dollar as of 11.08am in Bangkok, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. Global funds bought $440 million more Thai debt than they sold last week, the biggest inflow since the five-day period ended Oct 18, official data show.

“Demand and supply conditions are supportive of bonds,” said Toru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc in Tokyo. “There may be some purchases of Thai assets as the political situation remains calm, but I don’t see aggressive buying as the unrest is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.”

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected exchange-rate moves used to price options, fell 35 basis points to 5.74% from the end of last week and reached 5.73% earlier, the lowest level since November.

The Constitutional Court last month invalidated a February vote and the Election Commission said March 21 it may be at least three months before a new vote can be held, keeping Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government in caretaker mode.

Government bonds advanced. The yield on the 3.625% notes due June 2023 dropped two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, from April 4 to 3.67%, the lowest level since March 17, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

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Re: Baht shows weekly gain on inflows
« Reply #116 on: April 12, 2014, 12:45:25 PM »
The baht had its biggest weekly advance in a month and government bonds rose as foreign funds pumped money into local assets on signs the political situation is stabilising.

Overseas investors have bought a net $604 million of Thai stocks and $1.1 billion of the country’s debt since the end of February as anti-government protesters removed blockades in Bangkok and authorities lifted an emergency decree. The baht has rallied in line with regional peers on the back of dollar weakness, Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said on Friday. The currency fell the most in more than two weeks today as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares slumped.

The baht rose 0.6% this week, the most since the five-day period ended March 7, to 32.29 per dollar as of 3.44pm in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It weakened 0.2% on Saturday after strengthening 0.8% over the previous three days and reaching a three-week high of 32.137 on Friday.

“Recent inflows of funds supported the baht amid easing political tension,” said Tsutomu Soma, manager of the fixed-income business unit at Rakuten Securities Inc in Tokyo. “As gains through yesterday were quite fast, it’s natural to see a correction before the weekend.”

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected exchange-rate moves used to price options, slumped 49 basis points this week to 5.6%. The gauge declined one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, on Saturday.

The National Economic & Social Development Board said on April 8 it may cut its 2014 expansion estimate for the country’s economy from the current range of 3% to 4% because of the impact from the political unrest that started in late October.

Government bonds rose for a third week. The yield on the 3.625 percent sovereign notes due June 2023 dropped 10 basis points from April 4 and two basis points today to 3.6 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the lowest since June.

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Re: Baht drops most in two months
« Reply #117 on: May 20, 2014, 11:15:48 AM »
The baht dropped the most in two months

as the army imposed martial law nationwide after months of political turmoil that hurt the economy and led to Yingluck Shinawatra being ousted as prime minister.

The baht weakened as much as 0.6%, the biggest intra-day loss since March 20, before trading 0.3% lower on the day at 32.56 per dollar as of 8.45am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Five-year credit- default swaps protecting the nation’s debt against non-payment climbed to a one-month high of 127 basis points yesterday in New York, CMA prices show.

Martial law has been introduced to restore order and this is not a coup, Army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha said on local television, asking political groups to end protests that began in November and have led to violence that claimed 28 lives. Today’s move comes a day after government data showed gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter as demonstrations hurt production and tourism.

“Some foreign investors will dislike the martial law because it shows the situation is out of hand,” Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer at Krungsri Asset Management Co, which oversees about $7 billion in assets, said by phone. “The military’s intervention may force politicians to be more willing to go to the negotiating table now.”

The introduction of martial law is the army’s most direct involvement in the Southeast Asian nation’s politics since 2006, when then-premier Thaksin Shinawatra was removed in a coup. Thailand has been without a fully functioning government since December, when then-premier Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister, called snap elections in a bid to ease the unrest.

Elections derailed

A February poll was disrupted by anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban’s followers and the government and election officials were unable to schedule a new one before Yingluck was removed on May 7 after a court ruled she abused her power in office. Mr Suthep’s protesters have derailed plans for a July 20 election and the army had said previously it may use force to counter any escalation of violence.

Thailand’s “political crisis has dragged on for longer than expectations and relative to historical standards,” Alan Richardson, whose Samsung Asean Equity Fund beat 96% of peers tracked by Bloomberg in the past five years, said in a phone interview from Hong Kong. “We can see that the political crisis has affected economic and corporate fundamentals since the start of this year.”

GDP fell 0.6% in the first three months of 2014 compared with a year earlier, while the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0.4% increase. The benchmark SET Index of shares may slide to 1,200 and the baht could weaken to 34 in the “short term,” according to Mr Richardson. The index gained 0.4% on Monday to close at 1,410.63, the highest level since May 2.

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Re: Thai Baht drops
« Reply #118 on: May 23, 2014, 01:41:34 PM »
Thai Baht drops after announcement of coup

BANGKOK, 23 May 2014 (NNT) – Within half an hour of General Prayuth Chan-ocha's announcement of the declaration of the coup on national television yesterday (22 May 2014), the baht fell 0.3 percent against the U.S. dollar, down to 32.56 baht.

However the currency did not break recent lows, suggesting that some investors believe that the military's action could be a force in stabilizing the country.

Earlier this month, the currency hit its lowest point in three months at 32.63 per dollar. The baht, however, has still strengthened by 0.4 percent against the dollar this year.

NNT
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Re: Baht rebounds fast after dip on news
« Reply #119 on: May 24, 2014, 11:59:18 AM »
Baht rebounds fast after dip on news: BOT

Thursday 'panic' short-lived, currency bounces back; SET closes down 0.6%
Panic in the foreign-currency markets after Thursday's coup causes the baht to depreciate but the effect was short-lived, the Bank of Thailand said.

BOT spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said there was a mild panic initially that led to a weakening of the baht by 0.23 against the US dollar on Thursday but it soon bounced back.

"Some investors were uncertain about the coup situation at the start, so they had to protect themselves from risks, which is in the nature of investors and understandable, but it caused the baht to depreciate quite rapidly by 0.23. However, it bounced back after a short period of time," she said.

Roong said the currency yesterday morning was moving within the range of 32.48-32.57, which was not much different from its value before the coup. As of 6pm it was 32.64.

The baht was valued at 32.669 per dollar on Wednesday.

The SET Index yesterday dropped 0.60 per cent to close at 1,396.

"If there is a situation that causes the currency's value to change too rapidly, such as a continuous panic situation or if there is a currency movement that is not in line with the basic fundamentals of the economy, the BOT will have the duty to consider stepping in to take care of the stability of the financial market," Roong said.

She said the current stability in the financial market was based on a number of factors, including its ability to absorb political news. Some market players also believe that the coup could be a changing point from the chronic uncertainty of the past several months. "Thailand's financial market is deep and wide enough that there are variety of market players who can create a range of views and not flock in the same direction. Therefore it can be said that the country's financial market is quite stable, but stability does not mean no movement."

Roong said that after the news of the coup came out, government bond yield increased slightly, by 4-5 basis points, but fell almost immediately to where it was before the Army's seizure of power. This showed that investors in the bonds were not panicked by the situation.

As for the movement in the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday, Roong said some investors had sold and closed down their status to wait and see how the political situation develops, and the index fell by 20.75 points in the morning.

She said the stock market would probably experience some capital outflow but not much since there was little change in prices.

The SET Index yesterday dropped 8.37 points to close at 1,396.84. SET chairman Sathit Limpongpan said the morning session saw foreign net sales of Bt3.6 billion while individual investors purchased a net Bt4 billion, indicating that the latter had confidence in the market and understood the present political situation.

The SET will work closely with the Association of Thai Securities Companies to provide more information to foreign investors that Thai-listed firms have solid fundamentals, he said.

SET president Charamporn Jotikasthira said the market had experienced several crises over the years, so it had gained strength to weather each new one. He also noted that foreign investors' sales in the two days following the declaration of martial law were worth Bt11 billion, not a huge amount. Foreign investors' sales were worth Bt200 billion last year.

According to Fitch Ratings, the military takeover is not in itself a negative sovereign-ratings trigger. The key factor for Thailand's sovereign credit profile is the speed at which the country can move towards installing an effective, fully functioning government without sparking a further escalation in political instability.

If a process for political stabilisation is not in place by early in the second half of this year, then the rating agency would expect more lasting damage to the economy that could ultimately be negative for Thailand's sovereign credit.

Fitch expects to lower its forecast of 2.5-per-cent growth for 2014 for Thailand on the back of the political uncertainty and weak first-quarter data showing that gross domestic product contracted by 0.6 per cent year on year. The government has already cut its own growth forecast to a range of 1.5-2.5 per cent, from an initial 3-4 per cent.

The economy is reasonably well positioned to rebound quickly from short negative shocks, it said.

Suchart Thanathitiphan, executive director of the Thai Bond Market Association, said the coup could put negative pressure on the stock market rather than the bond market, given the different types of investors in each.

No controls have been put on financial transactions and businesses, and people continue to live their normal lives, he said.

Foreign investors in the Thai bond market are relatively confident with the country's economic fundamentals and the coup should provide more ways out and allow foreign investors to gain confidence, he said.

In the four days following the declaration of the martial law on Tuesday, foreign investors sold Bt600 million worth of Thai bonds on Monday and Bt2 billion on Tuesday before purchasing Bt2 billion on Wednesday and Bt3.5 billion on Thursday.

"Upgrading in response to the coup may have some impact on the bond market, but not much, as it may have on the stock market," Suchart said.

"The situation could slow down purchases or prompt sales in the short term before a buy-back. When everything eases, there's a chance for foreign capital to return."

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