Author Topic: Baht strengtening/weakening  (Read 39695 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht strongest in 25 months
« Reply #180 on: July 18, 2017, 02:35:32 PM »
Baht closes at 33.66 baht/dollar, the strongest in 25 months

The Thai baht closed at 33.66 baht against the US dollar, the strongest in 25 months after the currency was trading between 33.73-33.75 baht/dollar throughout Monday (July 17), said Jitipol Puksamatanan, a currency and capital markets strategist of the Krung Thai Bank.

He attributed the quick strengthening of the Thai baht to massive sale of US dollars coupled with the inflow of foreign capital, including fund flow for the takeover of LH Bank.

Mr Jitipol noted the quick strengthening of the baht coincides with the weakening of the US dollar which is unlikely to get stronger while the Bank of Thailand is reluctant to intervene.

He predicted that the Thai baht would get stronger next week to 33.60 baht/dollar and may rise to 33.50 baht/dollar if fund flow continues to pour into the country.

Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #181 on: July 18, 2017, 06:55:12 PM »
The Thai Baht isn't getting stronger at all! Euro and Pound are also gaining against the Baht, though by far not as much as the Dollar is loosing. Investors are loosing confidence in the US economy, since the president proves unable to fulfill his promises.
No matter how tall the mountain is, it cannot block the sun. - Chinese Proverb

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #182 on: July 18, 2017, 07:47:24 PM »
The Thai Baht isn't getting stronger at all! Euro and Pound are also gaining against the Baht
SHUSH! they haven't noticed  8)
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #183 on: July 18, 2017, 08:29:28 PM »
SHUSH! they haven't noticed  8)

Maybe they're just too polite to destroy that guy's dream of "making America the greatest (again ;))"
No matter how tall the mountain is, it cannot block the sun. - Chinese Proverb

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Strong baht yet to affect growth
« Reply #184 on: July 20, 2017, 02:32:45 PM »
Strong baht yet to affect growth - finance minister

Economic growth has not yet been affected by a strong baht, the finance minister said on Thursday, as the currency hovered near 26-month highs against the dollar.

"The baht's strength has not yet affected growth. We believe big business sectors can still handle it although SMEs may see some impact," Apisak Tantivorawong told reporters.

The baht has risen 6.5% against the US dollar so far this year, the most in Southeast Asia.

The finance ministry has forecast economic growth of 3.6% this year after 3.2% growth last year.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #185 on: September 09, 2017, 01:55:22 PM »
Nod for foreigners issuing bonds in baht

The Finance Ministry will let foreign state agencies and companies apply for baht-denominated bond issuance as a special case from Sept 6 to Oct 6, a move expected to help curb the baht's rapid gain.

Foreign entities that win Finance Ministry approval must issue the baht bonds with a maturity of up to three years between Nov 1, 2017 and March 31, 2018, the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) said in a release.

The issuers will be allowed to use the proceeds only in domestic transactions in baht terms and for onshore spot exchange.

The ministry will open applications for foreign entities to offer baht-denominated bonds three times a year: in March, July and November.

An informed source at the Finance Ministry said the special period for baht bond applications is in line with the initiatives of Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong, since he believes that letting foreign entities issue baht bonds will help stem the sharp appreciation of the baht, as bond issuers must convert proceeds to US dollars.

But the issuance size depends on the Finance Ministry's discretion, the source said.

The baht is among the top-performing currencies in Asia, up 7.7% year-to-date, according to Bloomberg data. In comparison, the Japanese yen has surged 7.9%, the Singaporean dollar 7.6% and the Taiwanese dollar 7.4% since the start of the year.

In related news, the PDMO said the Finance Ministry has approved the issuance of baht-denominated bonds by the Lao government and Nam Ngum 2 Power Co.

Both foreign entities are required to issue the baht-dominated bonds or debentures in Thailand by May 31, 2018, and must use all proceeds from the debentures according to the terms and conditions specified by the Finance Ministry.

Bangkok Post

Wasn't it the Yanks under DT who recently had to raise their debt limit to keep from going bankrupt? They might as well try to borrow from Thais and by that help depreciating the Baht.
No matter how tall the mountain is, it cannot block the sun. - Chinese Proverb

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Thai baht hits highest in 2-1/2 years
« Reply #186 on: November 20, 2017, 04:17:35 PM »
Thai baht hits highest in 2-1/2 years

The Thai baht rose to 32.81 per dollar on Monday, its highest since April 2015, driven by strong third quarter economic growth data.

Thailand's economy expanded at its fastest annual rate in 4½ years, although the quarterly pace slowed, indicating monetary policy will likely remain loose to support still-sluggish domestic demand.

"Thailand's third-quarter GDP released this morning was fairly strong so we see the baht staying fairly stable," Mizuho Bank's Chang said.

The baht firmed fractionally after the GDP news, gaining up to 0.09%.

Most Asian currencies were muted on Monday in the face of political uncertainty in Germany and lingering doubts about the prospects for US tax reform, dimming sentiment.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rivals, was up 0.3% as the euro slid, hit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's failure to form a three-way coalition government, increasing the level of political uncertainty.

Merkel said on Monday she would meet the German president to inform him that she had failed to form a coalition government with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) after the FDP unexpectedly pulled out of the coalition talks.

Recently, the dollar has been weighed down by uncertainty over US tax policy, notably cuts for business and the wealthy.

While the baht hit its highest in more than 2½ years, the Malaysian ringgit was up 0.1% at its highest for more than a year. The ringgit continued its gain after data on Friday showed that Malaysia's economy expanded in the third quarter at its fastest pace in more than three years, raising expectations of a interest rate hike at the central bank's next policy meeting in January.

"Even though we see a bit of a euro weakness having an impact on Asian currencies, there is also quite a bit of positivity within Southeast Asia where we have quite strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers coming through from Malaysia and the Philippines that is likely to be quite supportive of these two currencies - at least in the near term," said Wei Liang Chang, FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

"So markets are likely to be paying attention to idiosyncratic factors especially given that you have quite a good story coming out of Asia."

Losses in the region were led by an 0.2% decline in the South Korean won, and the Singapore dollar that slipped 0.2% because of the fall in euro.

The Indian rupee fell 0.15% after having led gains in the region in its previous session after Moody's Investors Services upgraded its ratings on India's sovereign bonds on Friday.

The Taiwan dollar was marginally higher ahead of balance of payment data due later in the day, while the Chinese yuan ticked 0.1% lower.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation
« Reply #187 on: January 18, 2018, 02:42:14 PM »
BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation

In a rare move, the Bank of Thailand has threatened to investigate some financial institutions with operations in Thailand for possible involvement in baht speculation.

The central bank's announcement comes amid the baht's continued rally against the US dollar. The local currency, up nearly 2% versus the greenback in 2018, is now the second-best performer in Asia this year after the Malaysian ringgit.

The central bank has found that some financial institutions' behaviour could indicate involvement in baht speculation through heavy transaction volume, said Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, who added that such practices have been done in favour of customers who may be speculating in baht.

Regulators need to launch an in-depth examination of such activities and consider tightening the rules to thwart speculators, Mr Veerathai said without mentioning any names.

He said the speculative activities were unlike the ones in the past that prompted the central bank to require financial institutions to monitor and report the activities of non-resident (NR) accounts.

Each foreigner who puts money in a non-resident baht account (NRBA) is prevented from holding the outstanding balance in all accounts opened at domestic financial institutions at more than 300 million baht at the end of day.

An NRBA, with the exception of a fixed account with a maturity of six months or longer, normally offers no interest to account holders.

The NRBA and the non-resident account for securities (NRBS) are among the central bank's measures to prevent foreigners from speculating in baht.

Other measures include a restriction on baht liquidity, curbing capital inflows and non-deliverable forward (NDF) -- similar to a regular forward FX contract but not requiring physical delivery of the designated currencies at maturity.

Mr Veerathai has repeatedly said that the baht's strength this year could be due to the US dollar's slump against other major currencies.

Thailand's high current account surplus and offshore fund inflows to the local bond market could also be contributing to the baht's strength, he said.

The US dollar is down about 2% to the euro since the start of the year.

The stronger baht, however, is in line with firming regional currencies, Mr Veerathai said.

"The Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring fund inflows to short-dated bonds, but no irregularity has been found," he said. "The central bank will continue to keep the existing measure of downsizing short-term bond issuance in place."

The central bank began tapering its new short-term bond supply in April last year after hot money was spotted flowing into short-dated notes, resulting in the baht's rapid appreciation.

Mr Veerathai said the baht's strength is unlikely to deal a direct blow to Thai exports, though exporters' income could ebb.

Foreign exchange rates will not have a direct impact on goods pricing, he said, as value-added products, productivity and business potential all play a role in honing competitive edge and increasing Thai business operators' price-setting power.

Mr Veerathai said the time is right for business operators to import equipment and machinery, as their costs will be lower in baht terms and such investment will help beef up competitiveness.

Thailand's economic recovery and current account surplus, which could continue to rise above US$40 billion (1.3 trillion baht) this year, are factors driving the baht higher, Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) said in a note.

The baht's value is expected to continue appreciating in the first months of this year, reflecting movement of capital inflows and market sentiment about Thailand's economic fundamentals and recovery impetus, K-Research said.

Despite how global financial markets are fixated on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate normalisation, this is not the sole factor affecting the local currency's value, as other factors have to be taken into account, the research house said. Factors include Thailand's current account surplus, political developments in the US and geopolitical issues.

"Although [the Bank of Thailand's] monetary policy remains in an accommodative stance to support a recovery in domestic economic activities, it has to be admitted that the yield of the Thai bond market, particularly long-term yield, could rise in line with the direction of foreign bond yields," K-Research said.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - baht will stay secure
« Reply #188 on: January 27, 2018, 01:26:16 PM »
What do you believe, first the problem that the Baht was too strong,They wanted it to weaken, now, well you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what's going on, why don't the uk follow suit. Investment abroad totaled $2.9 billion in January to April, according to the central bank.

BOT chief says baht will stay secure

Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Veerathai Santiprabhob vowed on Friday to keep the baht secure against the weakened US dollar and said the baht and other regional currencies would regain strength more quickly than normal.

“The BOT is ready to review additional measures to safeguard the baht against any abnormal currency movements,” he said.

The baht on Friday opened at 31.44 per US dollar, a 50-month high going back to October 2013. It also trade Bt31.35 per US dollar in this morning.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #189 on: February 06, 2018, 10:30:57 AM »
Europeans and Brits can keep breathing, they get a little more now for their Euros and Pounds, but Americans still need to keep the belt a little tight, though Happy Donald keeps boasting how much he has done for the economy, probably mistaking business owners' profit interests as the economy. The Fed is expected to keep the dollar inflation rate accelerating by raising the interest rates not only three but four times this year..
No matter how tall the mountain is, it cannot block the sun. - Chinese Proverb

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Cruelest month
« Reply #190 on: April 09, 2018, 03:54:19 PM »
Cruelest month for baht could be worse than usual this year

A seasonal downturn in the baht driven by dividend outflows and a lack of tourists could be worse than usual this year amid rising global bond yields and less liquidity, according to Kasikornbank.

A dropoff in tourists after the Songkran festival in mid-April and payouts to foreign stock investors usually spell declines for the currency in May. Last year was the first time the baht managed to rally in that month since 2009.

Rising developed-market bond yields and the gradual winding down of stimulus by the European Central Bank could prompt overseas investors to rebalance their portfolios away from emerging markets like Thailand, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital market research at Kasikornbank.

“The baht may see bigger downward pressure this year than usual,” he said. “Many clients are asking about this dividend season, while exporters are hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel.”

A decline in the baht may provide some relief to exporters who have complained about an 11% rally against the dollar over the last 12 months. Some 87 billion baht ($2.8 billion) of stock dividends will be paid out to non-resident investors in April and May this year, Kasikornbank estimates.

If the dollar rises beyond its 50-day moving average against the baht, that could open the way for the Thai currency to test its support area between the March 2 low at 31.587 and the 31.638 trough on Feb 22. Beyond that, the next support lies at the low of 31.957 reached on Feb 9.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Yes of course it makes perfect sense, nothing to worry about. :spin

BOT calls for calm over valuation loss on foreign reserves

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) on Monday said there was no need for alarm over a news report concerning its foreign reserves, explaining that that the valuation loss that had been made was the natural result of its responsibility for currency stability during a period of baht appreciation.

In response to news on social media involving the central bank’s loss, BOT assistant governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul denied that it had engaged in currency speculation. However, the BOT had bought foreign currency in order to prevent the baht appreciating too quickly, she said.

The increase in foreign reserves followed an influx of foreign capital as a result of several consecutive years of current-account surpluses and foreign direct investment, she said.

When the baht appreciates, a valuation loss occurs in regard to the country’s foreign reserves, whereas there is there is a valuation gain when the baht weakens, the assistant governor explained.

When the economy improves and the currency tends to strengthen, the central bank usually registers a valuation loss, but if the economy worsens and the baht depreciates, it normally records a valuation gain, she said.

At the end of last year, the BOT had about US$240 billion (Bt7.64 trillion) in foreign reserves.

If the Thai currency appreciated by Bt1 against the US dollar, the BOT would have an instant valuation loss of Bt240 billion on such a level of reserves.

On the other hand, if the baht depreciated by Bt1, the central bank would make an immediate valuation gain of Bt240 billion, Chantavarn said.

She was also at pains to explain that the foreign reserves were still in the form of foreign currency, which was something that did not deteriorate, unlike like agricultural products or commodities as the social-media reporting had compared them to.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Baht tests 7-month low on continued outflows

The baht will test its seven-month low this week as foreigners continue to move out of the currency on higher interest rates and an improved economic outlook in the United States.

The baht continued to slide, ending last Friday at 32.91 to the dollar, a drop of 1.73% from a week before, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The Kasikorn Research Center said the currency was approaching its seven-month low of 33 against the greenback and could reach that point this week.

It predicted the baht would stay in the range of 32.80-33.40 to the dollar during the coming week.

The baht's depreciation was due to continued foreign outflows from Thai stocks and bonds after the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark lending rate and amid worries about trade wars between the US and its trading partners.

The US central bank increased the Fed funds rate on June 13 to a range of 1.75%-2.0% and signalled more hikes before the end of the year.

Last week, foreign investors were net sellers of 13.8 billion baht from the Stock Exchange of Thailand. They have moved 176 billion baht out of Thai stocks since the beginning of the year.

US economic data to be released this week, including first-quarter gross domestic product, could apply additional pressure on the baht, the research arm of Kasikornbank said.

The US will announce its GDP figures on Thursday.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht may fall further, says trader
« Reply #193 on: June 29, 2018, 02:39:30 PM »
Baht may fall further, says trader

The baht, set to become the worst-performing currency in emerging Asia this quarter, doesn’t look like it’s going to bottom anytime soon, according to Mizuho Bank Ltd.

Foreign funds have pulled a net $3.8 billion from the nation’s equity market since the end of March, the most since at least 1999 on a quarterly basis, amid concerns that an escalation in trade frictions between the US and China will weigh on Thailand’s current-account surplus -- a source of attraction for the country’s currency bulls.

The baht had been the second-best performer in emerging Asia in the first quarter, underscoring the spread of the rout in developing economies to countries with relatively strong fundamentals.

Central banks in emerging markets -- from Argentina to Turkey -- have gone on the defensive as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields fuelled concern that a failure to tighten monetary policy risks a currency sell-off and an acceleration in inflation.

“The market’s focus has shifted to trade frictions and the currencies of economies with high dependence to trade are becoming more vulnerable to sell-offs,” said Masakatsu Fukaya, an emerging-market currency trader at Mizuho Bank. “My view is that the dollar will remain strong for a while. People are becoming concerned that a trade war will lead to overall shrinkage in global trade, so that could potentially threaten Thailand’s current-account surplus.”

The baht has weakened almost 6% against the dollar this quarter to trade at 33.10 as of 2.15pm in Bangkok Thursday. Overseas investors withdrew net $251 million from the bond market since the end of March, the first net quarterly outflows since the last three months of 2016, according to data from the Thai Bond Market Association.

“Factors that supported the first-quarter gains are now turning around to bite the currencies of export-oriented economies,” Mizuho’s Fukaya said. “We may even see the baht test the 33.50 level.”
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Baht drops faster than peers against dollar

While the currency's decline was high for a two-month period, its first-half fall was par for the region

The baht depreciated against the US dollar at a faster pace than its regional peers in Asia over the past two months, weighed down by external uncertainties, and its downward trend is expected to continue, says a senior central bank official.

Offshore fund outflows resulted from the more hawkish stance than expected of the US Federal Reserve, dividend repatriation of multinational companies and the Sino-US trade spat contributing to the baht's weakness, said Don Nakornthab, the Bank of Thailand's senior director of the economic and policy department.

The baht and the South Korean won were the best-performing currencies in Asia last year, but they fell 3% versus the greenback from the end of May to June 22.

The baht's volatility -- a 6.2% drop between the beginning of this year and June 22 -- was in line with the region's showing.

The baht on Friday weakened to 33.19 to the dollar from 33.12 on Thursday. Year-to-date, the baht dropped 1.8%, outperforming the won, which lost 4.5%, the Indonesian rupiah (down 5.7%), the Philippine peso (down 6.5%) and the Indian rupee (down 7.2%).

Based on the baht's downward trend, the country's international reserves could decline to 3.4 times short-term debt from 3.5 times in May, but the level is still considered high enough to provide a cushion against any shocks, Mr Don said.

Thailand's international reserves fell to US$209.7 billion (6.9 trillion baht) as of June 22 from $211.5 billion a week ago and $212.3 billion as of June 8.

According to Bank of Thailand data, its foreign portfolio showed a net outflow of $1.85 billion in May, up from $1.37 billion in April, cashing a net of $4.1 billion from Thailand year to date. Of the total $1.85 billion, $1.67 billion was pulled out of the stock market and the remainder from bonds.

Mr Don said the baht's retreat could hurt the country's imports, particularly in capital goods, machinery and equipment products, while private investment remains promising, with capacity utilisation at 69.4% in May, reaching the highest level since September 2017.

The baht's depreciation could also benefit the country's exports.

The central bank forecasts double-digit growth for the first half of the year. The country's outbound shipments surged 11.3% for the first five months, while growing 13.1% in May.

The Commerce Ministry and the Bank of Thailand use a different base for export and import data. The former uses customs-cleared figures, while the latter uses payment-based numbers.

"The export growth rate is expected to moderate in the second half because of the high-base effect," Mr Don said. "Even if there is no trade war, global trade will slow down from the latter half, in line with the global economic outlook."

The central bank said the country's economic outlook and monetary conditions continued to gain traction in May, thanks to strong exports and domestic demand.

Merchandise exports expanded on the back of strong external demand and a rise in global crude oil prices, while domestic demand expanded robustly.

The expansion in external and domestic demand was attributed to the growth in manufacturing. Robust growth was also spotted in public spending and private investment, while the tourism sector continued to grow.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht fluctuations to continue
« Reply #195 on: July 04, 2018, 12:21:30 PM »
BoT: Baht fluctuations to continue

The Bank of Thailand expects baht fluctuations to continue, but in a limited range, due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, trade barriers, and the European Central Bank's plan to stop bond purchases.

BoT governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said Tuesday that other factors to a volatile baht included midterm elections in the United States which could have impacts on US trade barriers and thus worldwide financial and equity markets.

The private sector must manage currency risks, he said.

"In the past few days, regional currencies fluctuated wildly, especially the yuan, the currency of a targeted country in the trade war," the BoT governor said.

However, impacts on the baht would be limited because Thailand depended less on foreign currencies, had huge foreign-exchange reserves and continuously posted current account surpluses, Mr Veerathai said.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #196 on: July 13, 2018, 12:06:12 PM »
How is it when the pound starts to rise on the third day it's back to where it started :o

Central bank taking action on rapid baht moves

The Bank of Thailand has taken action on rapid moves in the baht, the governor said on Thursday, as the currency weakened to nine-month lows against the US dollar.

It is the central bank's policy to smooth out any excessive moves in the baht, governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told reporters.

The baht traded at 33.27 against the dollar at 11.48am, having depreciated by 3.6% since the middle of June.

Global trade tensions have yet to have a direct impact on Thailand, but there may be some effect from supply chains, Mr Veerathai said.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Baht expected to strengthen by year-end

 THE BAHT is expected to reverse course in the next few months, and the central bank is likely to raise the key interest rate in September, Tim Leelahaphan, an economist at the Standard Chartered Bank Thailand, has forecast.

Closely monitored risk factors to the economy include trade tensions and the impact of the boat tragedy in Phuket earlier this month on the tourism industry.

The baht would strengthen to Bt32.5 per US dollar from the current level of Bt33.5 per dollar by the end of the year, he said.

The dollar has been boosted recently by the expansion of the US economy and the rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. But large spending and tax cuts by the US government will lead to a larger budget deficit, which would weaken the US government’s financial position, he said.

A larger budget deficit would lower confidence in the US dollar causing it to weaken, he predicted.

He also predicted that the Bank of Thailand was unlikely to defy the trend of rising interest rates. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee recently changed its tone about the policy rate. They have started to discuss rate normalisation after keeping a historically low rate of 1.5 per cent so long, he said.

The central bank is likely to raise interest rate twice this year, by 25 basis points each time, to 2 per cent by the end of the year.

Another key reason for the rate hike is that the central bank will choose a gradual rate hike rather than a sharp increase later in order to avoid market jitters, he argued.

As the economic growth moves towards a broad-based growth, it could accelerate inflation, he warned.

He pointed out that Standard Chartered’s forecast differs from the consensus view that the central bank will keep the policy rate on hold for the rest of the year and will start to raise the rate next year.

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong was also against an early rate hike, as he feared it would adversely affect consumers.

Tim believed that pressure from Apisak would not prevent the central bank from increasing the rate.

“Apisak also conceded that it is the responsibility of the central bank regarding interest rate policy,” Tim said.

Standard Chartered has forecast economic growth rate of about 4.3 per cent this year, compared with 4.5 per cent projected by the Finance Ministry.

Upside risk could be possible if the government makes clear in September about the date of the next general election.

The lifting of the political ban will lead to political campaigns across the country and that could boost consumer spending, especially upcountry, he said.

He was optimistic that the trade dispute between the United States and China would not get out of hand.

He, however, said close monitoring is needed to see how the trade disputes would play out.

Some analysts believed that trade tensions could escalate into a full-blown trade war as US President Donald Trump recently made a fresh threat to impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth US$500 billion.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the trade dispute between the US, with major economies China, Europe, Mexico and Canada could slash global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points by 2020. It maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3.9 per cent this year but said trade volume would be less than expected, rising 4.5 per cent against its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent.

Another risk factor is the fallout from the boat tragedy in Phuket on the tourism industry, as more than 40 Chinese tourists lost their lives.

Tim said he did not think it would have a big impact on Chinese tourist arrivals.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Trade war worries may lead to baht instability

The baht could go up or down this week as the world economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty over a US-China trade spat.

The currency slightly appreciated to 33.18 baht against the greenback on Wednesday and Thursday before shedding 29 satang to close at 33.47 on Friday, the Bank of Thailand reported, citing the average rate quoted by commercial banks.

CIMB Thai Bank predicted the baht to move between 33.10 and 33.60 this week, saying its direction could be determined by sentiments over the trade conflict between the United States and China.

The top two biggest economies are locked in a tit-for-tat tariff dispute, with Beijing threatening to retaliate against Washington by imposing levies on US goods.

Ministers attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Singapore have voiced concern about the dispute's impact on global trade.

The Monetary Policy Committee will hold a meeting on Wednesday, and CIMB Thai and Kasikorn Research Center both expected no change in the policy rate.

The Bank of Thailand has kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5% since 2015 to help drive economic growth. But the central bank said it planned to tighten monetary policy as the economy continued to expand.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - pound hits 11 month low
« Reply #199 on: August 07, 2018, 02:54:16 PM »
FOREX-Sterling drops on Brexit fears, trade tensions boost dollar

Concerns about Britain's plan toleave the European Union sent the pound to an 11-month lowagainst the greenback on Monday, while U.S.-China trade tensionshelped boost the U.S. currency.

"Some of the political noise we're been receiving across thepond reintroduced the Brexit discount into sterling," said MazenIssa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York.

The pound GBP= fell as low as $1.2917 before retracing to$1.2940, down 0.50 percent on the day.

Worries that Italy will ramp up spending and challengeEuropean Union budget rules, and a drop in German industrialorders in June, also weighed on the euro.**:nL5N1UX0ZJ

The euro zone single currency EUR=EBS fell to a five-weeklow of $1.1527 before rising back to $1.1552, down 0.13 percent.

Technical support around $1.15 may prop up the euro incoming days.

"I think a move below that would require a fresh catalyst,"said Issa.

The dollar, meanwhile, was boosted by trade war rhetoric.

China proposed retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth ofU.S. goods ranging from liquefied natural gas to some aircrafton Friday, as a senior Chinese diplomat cast doubt on prospectsof talks with Washington to solve their bitter trade conflict.*:nL4N1UU4QP

Some analysts see trade tensions as beneficial for the U.S.dollar as the economy is better placed to handle protectionismthan emerging markets, and as tariffs may narrow the U.S. tradedeficit.

"Trade tensions are very much dollar positive so I suspectthat's contributing to the dollar gains today," said ErikNelson, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

Chinese stocks .SSEC fell 1.3 percent on Monday.*:nL4N1UX3LX

Since mid-April, the dollar index .DXY has gained 6percent while an emerging-market local currency bond exchangetraded fund LEMB.K has fallen more than 10 percent over thesame period.

Against a broad basket of currencies .DXY , the dollar waslast up 0.24 percent to 95.367. It is within striking distanceof a more-than-one-year peak of 95.652 reached on July 19, whichis also seen as having technical resistance.

The main U.S. economic focus this week will be Friday'sconsumer price inflation report for July, which is expected toshow a 0.2 percent increase in core inflation in the month,according to a Reuters poll.

Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - baht shines as rate rise beckons
« Reply #200 on: September 28, 2018, 11:45:35 AM »
baht shines as rate rise beckons

The baht has been a standout performer in what’s been another tough quarter for many emerging currencies. Along with an outsize current-account surplus, the country is luring investors thanks to prospects for the first interest-rate hike since 2011.

The baht has strengthened almost 2% this quarter against the dollar, the top performer among 12 major Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. It’s also good enough for No.2 in emerging markets, behind Mexico’s peso, which has benefited from a US trade deal. The gain takes back some of the previous quarter’s loss, when the baht put in Asia’s worst performance.

"The baht got an additional support during this quarter as the Bank of Thailand became hawkish, with the economy showing a solid recovery and inflation returning back to the central bank’s target range," said Takahide Irimura, the head of economic research in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co, which managed $121 billion as of the end of June. "The currency may continue to perform well into the final quarter of the year, when tourism revenue seasonally picks up and pushes up the current-account surplus."

After years of wallowing in the "middle-income trap" -- subpar growth for countries that made the initial jump up the development ladder -- Thailand’s economy has been kicking into higher gear as its government gets going on infrastructure projects.

Prospects for a political transition have also emerged. A royal endorsement this month paved the way for a long-delayed general election, boosting hopes that spending related to the vote will lift consumption and jobs.

With growth clocking a pace just under 4% for a second straight year and forecasts for a similar pace next year, according to the IMF, inflation pressures are expected to pick up.

The baht reached a three-month high last week after the Bank of Thailand said the need for accommodative policy is expected to decline. Two of seven voters on policy favoured an immediate hike in the 1.5% benchmark rate.

The nation’s current-account surplus of nearly 10% of gross domestic product has also provided support in a period of emerging-market rout triggered by selloffs in Turkey and Argentina.

Foreign investors poured almost $3.5 billion net into the Thai bonds since the quarter began, and though they pulled some out of equities, the SET Index has been the best performer among major Asian markets, headed for its biggest quarterly rally since 2013.

Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob signalled on Monday that policymakers will be careful not to hurt growth prospects if they do raise rates, with a pause likely after any such move.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Newsy

Oil prices, strong baht take toll on industrial sentiment

The Thailand Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) dropped in September due to concerns about a hike of oil prices and the baht's appreciation, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported on Thursday.

The survey in September showed the index stood at 91.5 points, down from 92.5 in August.

"Most business operators are concerned about oil prices, which hit US$83 per barrel in the global market. They affect the country's overall transportation cost," said FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree.

"The baht strength is now a worrisome issue when compared to the currency movements in Southeast Asia countries," he added.

The FTI foresaw pressure from the prolonged trade war between the United States and China to affect export sentiment but the promised general election will push the index to 105.6 over the next three months.

The FTI index surveys 45 industry sectors, with 1,045 member businesses in the country. The index below 100 indicates declining confidence of the industry sector and above 100 demonstrates its better economic mood.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht expected to remain under pressure
« Reply #202 on: October 29, 2018, 02:27:29 PM »
Baht expected to remain under pressure this week

A research agency involved in one of Thailand’s high-street bank projects, expects the baht will remain under pressure and weaken against the U.S. dollar this week.

Kasikorn Research Center forecasts the Thai currency will trade between 32.30 baht and 33.20 baht per U.S. dollar this week, when the focus will be on the Bank of Thailand’s September economic report and the Ministry of Commerce’s October Thai inflation report.

KResearch noted that the baht has weakened against the U.S. dollar to 33.09 baht per greenback last week, after the country’s exports contracted more than expected while the market has been under the pressure from a foreign investors’ sell-off of Thai shares throughout the week.

The agency added that the U.S. dollar meanwhile, has been strengthening on the back of investors’ aversion to risk from worries about the budget conflict between Italy and the European Union as well as on the Chinese economic slowdown.

It went on to say that the dollar has also been supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data released late last week.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #203 on: January 03, 2019, 09:01:07 PM »
Still wondering why expats and tourists prefer to stay at home?

No matter how tall the mountain is, it cannot block the sun. - Chinese Proverb