Author Topic: Baht strengtening/weakening  (Read 35207 times)

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Baht strongest in 25 months
« Reply #180 on: July 18, 2017, 02:35:32 PM »
Baht closes at 33.66 baht/dollar, the strongest in 25 months

The Thai baht closed at 33.66 baht against the US dollar, the strongest in 25 months after the currency was trading between 33.73-33.75 baht/dollar throughout Monday (July 17), said Jitipol Puksamatanan, a currency and capital markets strategist of the Krung Thai Bank.

He attributed the quick strengthening of the Thai baht to massive sale of US dollars coupled with the inflow of foreign capital, including fund flow for the takeover of LH Bank.

Mr Jitipol noted the quick strengthening of the baht coincides with the weakening of the US dollar which is unlikely to get stronger while the Bank of Thailand is reluctant to intervene.

He predicted that the Thai baht would get stronger next week to 33.60 baht/dollar and may rise to 33.50 baht/dollar if fund flow continues to pour into the country.

Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #181 on: July 18, 2017, 06:55:12 PM »
The Thai Baht isn't getting stronger at all! Euro and Pound are also gaining against the Baht, though by far not as much as the Dollar is loosing. Investors are loosing confidence in the US economy, since the president proves unable to fulfill his promises.
Fun is the one thing that money can't buy

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #182 on: July 18, 2017, 07:47:24 PM »
The Thai Baht isn't getting stronger at all! Euro and Pound are also gaining against the Baht
SHUSH! they haven't noticed  8)
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #183 on: July 18, 2017, 08:29:28 PM »
SHUSH! they haven't noticed  8)

Maybe they're just too polite to destroy that guy's dream of "making America the greatest (again ;))"
Fun is the one thing that money can't buy

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Strong baht yet to affect growth
« Reply #184 on: July 20, 2017, 02:32:45 PM »
Strong baht yet to affect growth - finance minister

Economic growth has not yet been affected by a strong baht, the finance minister said on Thursday, as the currency hovered near 26-month highs against the dollar.

"The baht's strength has not yet affected growth. We believe big business sectors can still handle it although SMEs may see some impact," Apisak Tantivorawong told reporters.

The baht has risen 6.5% against the US dollar so far this year, the most in Southeast Asia.

The finance ministry has forecast economic growth of 3.6% this year after 3.2% growth last year.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #185 on: September 09, 2017, 01:55:22 PM »
Nod for foreigners issuing bonds in baht

The Finance Ministry will let foreign state agencies and companies apply for baht-denominated bond issuance as a special case from Sept 6 to Oct 6, a move expected to help curb the baht's rapid gain.

Foreign entities that win Finance Ministry approval must issue the baht bonds with a maturity of up to three years between Nov 1, 2017 and March 31, 2018, the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) said in a release.

The issuers will be allowed to use the proceeds only in domestic transactions in baht terms and for onshore spot exchange.

The ministry will open applications for foreign entities to offer baht-denominated bonds three times a year: in March, July and November.

An informed source at the Finance Ministry said the special period for baht bond applications is in line with the initiatives of Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong, since he believes that letting foreign entities issue baht bonds will help stem the sharp appreciation of the baht, as bond issuers must convert proceeds to US dollars.

But the issuance size depends on the Finance Ministry's discretion, the source said.

The baht is among the top-performing currencies in Asia, up 7.7% year-to-date, according to Bloomberg data. In comparison, the Japanese yen has surged 7.9%, the Singaporean dollar 7.6% and the Taiwanese dollar 7.4% since the start of the year.

In related news, the PDMO said the Finance Ministry has approved the issuance of baht-denominated bonds by the Lao government and Nam Ngum 2 Power Co.

Both foreign entities are required to issue the baht-dominated bonds or debentures in Thailand by May 31, 2018, and must use all proceeds from the debentures according to the terms and conditions specified by the Finance Ministry.

Bangkok Post

Wasn't it the Yanks under DT who recently had to raise their debt limit to keep from going bankrupt? They might as well try to borrow from Thais and by that help depreciating the Baht.
Fun is the one thing that money can't buy

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Thai baht hits highest in 2-1/2 years
« Reply #186 on: November 20, 2017, 04:17:35 PM »
Thai baht hits highest in 2-1/2 years

The Thai baht rose to 32.81 per dollar on Monday, its highest since April 2015, driven by strong third quarter economic growth data.

Thailand's economy expanded at its fastest annual rate in 4½ years, although the quarterly pace slowed, indicating monetary policy will likely remain loose to support still-sluggish domestic demand.

"Thailand's third-quarter GDP released this morning was fairly strong so we see the baht staying fairly stable," Mizuho Bank's Chang said.

The baht firmed fractionally after the GDP news, gaining up to 0.09%.

Most Asian currencies were muted on Monday in the face of political uncertainty in Germany and lingering doubts about the prospects for US tax reform, dimming sentiment.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rivals, was up 0.3% as the euro slid, hit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's failure to form a three-way coalition government, increasing the level of political uncertainty.

Merkel said on Monday she would meet the German president to inform him that she had failed to form a coalition government with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) after the FDP unexpectedly pulled out of the coalition talks.

Recently, the dollar has been weighed down by uncertainty over US tax policy, notably cuts for business and the wealthy.

While the baht hit its highest in more than 2½ years, the Malaysian ringgit was up 0.1% at its highest for more than a year. The ringgit continued its gain after data on Friday showed that Malaysia's economy expanded in the third quarter at its fastest pace in more than three years, raising expectations of a interest rate hike at the central bank's next policy meeting in January.

"Even though we see a bit of a euro weakness having an impact on Asian currencies, there is also quite a bit of positivity within Southeast Asia where we have quite strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers coming through from Malaysia and the Philippines that is likely to be quite supportive of these two currencies - at least in the near term," said Wei Liang Chang, FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

"So markets are likely to be paying attention to idiosyncratic factors especially given that you have quite a good story coming out of Asia."

Losses in the region were led by an 0.2% decline in the South Korean won, and the Singapore dollar that slipped 0.2% because of the fall in euro.

The Indian rupee fell 0.15% after having led gains in the region in its previous session after Moody's Investors Services upgraded its ratings on India's sovereign bonds on Friday.

The Taiwan dollar was marginally higher ahead of balance of payment data due later in the day, while the Chinese yuan ticked 0.1% lower.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation
« Reply #187 on: January 18, 2018, 02:42:14 PM »
BoT sounds alarm on baht speculation

In a rare move, the Bank of Thailand has threatened to investigate some financial institutions with operations in Thailand for possible involvement in baht speculation.

The central bank's announcement comes amid the baht's continued rally against the US dollar. The local currency, up nearly 2% versus the greenback in 2018, is now the second-best performer in Asia this year after the Malaysian ringgit.

The central bank has found that some financial institutions' behaviour could indicate involvement in baht speculation through heavy transaction volume, said Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, who added that such practices have been done in favour of customers who may be speculating in baht.

Regulators need to launch an in-depth examination of such activities and consider tightening the rules to thwart speculators, Mr Veerathai said without mentioning any names.

He said the speculative activities were unlike the ones in the past that prompted the central bank to require financial institutions to monitor and report the activities of non-resident (NR) accounts.

Each foreigner who puts money in a non-resident baht account (NRBA) is prevented from holding the outstanding balance in all accounts opened at domestic financial institutions at more than 300 million baht at the end of day.

An NRBA, with the exception of a fixed account with a maturity of six months or longer, normally offers no interest to account holders.

The NRBA and the non-resident account for securities (NRBS) are among the central bank's measures to prevent foreigners from speculating in baht.

Other measures include a restriction on baht liquidity, curbing capital inflows and non-deliverable forward (NDF) -- similar to a regular forward FX contract but not requiring physical delivery of the designated currencies at maturity.

Mr Veerathai has repeatedly said that the baht's strength this year could be due to the US dollar's slump against other major currencies.

Thailand's high current account surplus and offshore fund inflows to the local bond market could also be contributing to the baht's strength, he said.

The US dollar is down about 2% to the euro since the start of the year.

The stronger baht, however, is in line with firming regional currencies, Mr Veerathai said.

"The Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring fund inflows to short-dated bonds, but no irregularity has been found," he said. "The central bank will continue to keep the existing measure of downsizing short-term bond issuance in place."

The central bank began tapering its new short-term bond supply in April last year after hot money was spotted flowing into short-dated notes, resulting in the baht's rapid appreciation.

Mr Veerathai said the baht's strength is unlikely to deal a direct blow to Thai exports, though exporters' income could ebb.

Foreign exchange rates will not have a direct impact on goods pricing, he said, as value-added products, productivity and business potential all play a role in honing competitive edge and increasing Thai business operators' price-setting power.

Mr Veerathai said the time is right for business operators to import equipment and machinery, as their costs will be lower in baht terms and such investment will help beef up competitiveness.

Thailand's economic recovery and current account surplus, which could continue to rise above US$40 billion (1.3 trillion baht) this year, are factors driving the baht higher, Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) said in a note.

The baht's value is expected to continue appreciating in the first months of this year, reflecting movement of capital inflows and market sentiment about Thailand's economic fundamentals and recovery impetus, K-Research said.

Despite how global financial markets are fixated on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate normalisation, this is not the sole factor affecting the local currency's value, as other factors have to be taken into account, the research house said. Factors include Thailand's current account surplus, political developments in the US and geopolitical issues.

"Although [the Bank of Thailand's] monetary policy remains in an accommodative stance to support a recovery in domestic economic activities, it has to be admitted that the yield of the Thai bond market, particularly long-term yield, could rise in line with the direction of foreign bond yields," K-Research said.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - baht will stay secure
« Reply #188 on: January 27, 2018, 01:26:16 PM »
What do you believe, first the problem that the Baht was too strong,They wanted it to weaken, now, well you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what's going on, why don't the uk follow suit. Investment abroad totaled $2.9 billion in January to April, according to the central bank.

BOT chief says baht will stay secure

Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Veerathai Santiprabhob vowed on Friday to keep the baht secure against the weakened US dollar and said the baht and other regional currencies would regain strength more quickly than normal.

“The BOT is ready to review additional measures to safeguard the baht against any abnormal currency movements,” he said.

The baht on Friday opened at 31.44 per US dollar, a 50-month high going back to October 2013. It also trade Bt31.35 per US dollar in this morning.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline Johnnie F.

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening
« Reply #189 on: February 06, 2018, 10:30:57 AM »
Europeans and Brits can keep breathing, they get a little more now for their Euros and Pounds, but Americans still need to keep the belt a little tight, though Happy Donald keeps boasting how much he has done for the economy, probably mistaking business owners' profit interests as the economy. The Fed is expected to keep the dollar inflation rate accelerating by raising the interest rates not only three but four times this year..
Fun is the one thing that money can't buy

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strengtening/weakening - Cruelest month
« Reply #190 on: April 09, 2018, 03:54:19 PM »
Cruelest month for baht could be worse than usual this year

A seasonal downturn in the baht driven by dividend outflows and a lack of tourists could be worse than usual this year amid rising global bond yields and less liquidity, according to Kasikornbank.

A dropoff in tourists after the Songkran festival in mid-April and payouts to foreign stock investors usually spell declines for the currency in May. Last year was the first time the baht managed to rally in that month since 2009.

Rising developed-market bond yields and the gradual winding down of stimulus by the European Central Bank could prompt overseas investors to rebalance their portfolios away from emerging markets like Thailand, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital market research at Kasikornbank.

“The baht may see bigger downward pressure this year than usual,” he said. “Many clients are asking about this dividend season, while exporters are hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel.”

A decline in the baht may provide some relief to exporters who have complained about an 11% rally against the dollar over the last 12 months. Some 87 billion baht ($2.8 billion) of stock dividends will be paid out to non-resident investors in April and May this year, Kasikornbank estimates.

If the dollar rises beyond its 50-day moving average against the baht, that could open the way for the Thai currency to test its support area between the March 2 low at 31.587 and the 31.638 trough on Feb 22. Beyond that, the next support lies at the low of 31.957 reached on Feb 9.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.

Offline thaiga

Yes of course it makes perfect sense, nothing to worry about. :spin

BOT calls for calm over valuation loss on foreign reserves

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) on Monday said there was no need for alarm over a news report concerning its foreign reserves, explaining that that the valuation loss that had been made was the natural result of its responsibility for currency stability during a period of baht appreciation.

In response to news on social media involving the central bank’s loss, BOT assistant governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul denied that it had engaged in currency speculation. However, the BOT had bought foreign currency in order to prevent the baht appreciating too quickly, she said.

The increase in foreign reserves followed an influx of foreign capital as a result of several consecutive years of current-account surpluses and foreign direct investment, she said.

When the baht appreciates, a valuation loss occurs in regard to the country’s foreign reserves, whereas there is there is a valuation gain when the baht weakens, the assistant governor explained.

When the economy improves and the currency tends to strengthen, the central bank usually registers a valuation loss, but if the economy worsens and the baht depreciates, it normally records a valuation gain, she said.

At the end of last year, the BOT had about US$240 billion (Bt7.64 trillion) in foreign reserves.

If the Thai currency appreciated by Bt1 against the US dollar, the BOT would have an instant valuation loss of Bt240 billion on such a level of reserves.

On the other hand, if the baht depreciated by Bt1, the central bank would make an immediate valuation gain of Bt240 billion, Chantavarn said.

She was also at pains to explain that the foreign reserves were still in the form of foreign currency, which was something that did not deteriorate, unlike like agricultural products or commodities as the social-media reporting had compared them to.
Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist should have his head examined.