Author Topic: Baht strengtening/weakening  (Read 29730 times)

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht stable this week
« Reply #120 on: May 30, 2014, 11:14:52 AM »
Baht stable this week, down slightly on external factors, BOT says

The baht has remained stable despite weakening a little compared with last week on external factors, the Bank of Thailand says.
BOT spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said that between Monday and yesterday morning the currency had moved within the range of 32.56-32.73 per US dollar. Its average value is lower than last week as the US economy and its currency have strengthened.

"Many of the US economic indicators are better than expected, such as the amount of durable goods ordered and the relaxed monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar. Therefore, the baht and other currencies in this region have slightly weakened when compared with the US dollar," she said.

The baht closed yesterday at 32.97 per dollar. Roong said internal factors had no effect on the currency, bond or stock markets even though foreign investors had continued to be net sellers of bonds and stocks, the amounts were not as critical as in the first day after the coup. At that time, some panicked investors sold most of their Thai assets to reduce risks.

"Most foreign investors are still waiting to see the developments of political reform and the economic stimulation process," she said.

As for domestic investors, Roong said their confidence level was still sound and they were net buyers in the stock market, which would help bring the SET Index back to the same level as before the coup.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand closed yesterday at 1,408.51, up 5.72 points from Wednesday.

Five-year credit default swaps protecting Thai government debt against non-payment fell from 133 basis points on May 22 to 122 on Wednesday, the same level as in mid-May. Roong said the drop showed that political factors had only a short-term effect on foreign investors and now they were more relaxed about the situation.

bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht gains on spending pledge
« Reply #121 on: June 07, 2014, 01:40:31 PM »
KUALA LUMPUR — The baht was the best-performing Asian currency this week as Thailand’s junta pledged to boost spending to revive economic growth. Indonesia’s rupiah led losses after the country reported a surprise trade deficit.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, was steady for the week, erasing a decline after the European Central Bank cut interest rates to negative on Thursday, potentially spurring fund flows to emerging-market assets. Thailand’s military administration, which took over in a May 22 coup, promised to step up infrastructure development and increase investment in areas adjacent to the nation’s borders.

“The perception is that the new Thailand government has provided stability and improved conditions for growth,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. The ECB’s stimulus programme is “positive for high-yielding currencies such as those in Asia,” he said.

The baht appreciated 0.9% this week, the most since February, to 32.560 per dollar as of 3.36pm in Bangkok on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Philippine peso rose 0.2% to 43.65, while the rupiah fell 1.3% to 11,834 and Malaysia’s ringgit declined 0.1% to 3.2150.

Foreign funds pumped $523 million baht into Thai stocks and local-currency sovereign bonds in the first four days of the week, exchange data show. The junta plans to speed up investment in a dual-track train project and promote economic development zones near borders with Malaysia, Myanmar and Laos, ACM Prajin Juntong, the head of economic affairs, told reporters in Bangkok on June 1.
Stocks rally

The ECB became the first major monetary authority to use negative deposit rates to spur consumption, and said it would offer liquidity to lenders to boost credit growth. The euro rose against the greenback after the announcement and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares headed for its highest close since October on Friday.

Inflation in the Philippines accelerated to 4.5% in May, the fastest since 2011 and exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg for a rate of 4.2%, data showed on Thursday. That spurred speculation the central bank will raise borrowing costs at its June 19 meeting.

The rupiah had a third weekly drop after Indonesian authorities reported a $1.96-billion trade deficit in April, the biggest shortfall in nine months. The current-account gap may almost double this quarter from the previous period, central bank Governor Agus Martowardojo said in Jakarta yesterday.
‘Rupiah weakness’

“Our view is for more rupiah weakness against the dollar,’ said Mika Martumpal, treasury research and strategy head at PT Bank CIMB Niaga in Jakarta. ‘‘We still see current-account deficit narrowing from 2013, but the second quarter will prove to be a challenging time.’’

Elsewhere in Asia, India’s rupee slipped 0.1% this week to 59.185 per dollar and China’s yuan declined 0.05% to 6.2502. Taiwan’s dollar retreated 0.1% to T$30.08, while South Korea’s won was little changed at 1,020.45 through Thursday, with financial markets in the country closed on Friday for a public holiday. The Vietnamese dong dropped 0.1% to 21,185.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Thai Baht gains 1.3 percent first half of this year
« Reply #122 on: July 15, 2014, 05:44:12 PM »
BOT: Thai Baht gains 1.3 percent first half of this year

BANGKOK, 15 July 2014 (NNT) – The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has revealed that the Thai baht gained 1.3 percent during the first half of this year, while the outflow by foreign investors was valued at about US 3 billion dollars.

Chantawan Sucharitkul, BOT Assistant Governor, noted that Thai baht moved in line with other regional currencies and the global economy during the first half of this year. At the beginning of the year, the Thai baht was weaker due to the political crisis before becoming stronger in February. Later the Thai baht became weaker again in May. Then, from May 22 onwards, after the military took power, the baht has been strong due to the more stable political situation.

Besides, the flow of foreign investors’ funds returned in June. The Thai bourse has gained 14.4 percent since the end of last year. Foreign investors sold 41 billion baht in the Thai stock market. Foreign investors sold 42 billion baht in the bond market, and now holds bonds accounting for 9.7 %, a 10.34 % decline since the end of the previous year. In addition, yields of government bonds decreased 17-34 bps due to the economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, from the BOT’s point of view, the Thai baht is moving in an acceptable range, not fluctuating too much. Economic recovery and progress in forming a government will be positive for the Thai baht. As for moves to make the Yuan a major global currency, the BOT considers that it will be beneficial for Thai entrepreneurs engaged in border trade with China. As well, BOT diversifies its reserves in various currencies. So, it should not affect the Thai baht.

NNT
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht set for fifth weekly gain
« Reply #123 on: July 25, 2014, 11:55:46 AM »
Thailand’s baht was headed for a fifth weekly gain, its longest winning streak in more than a year, as overseas investors pumped US$2 billion into the local bond market in the last four days.

The currency strengthened 0.8% from a week ago to 31.876 per dollar as of 9.39am in Bangkok, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It declined 0.1% today. Global investors have been net buyers of Thai debt on each of the last 20 days, boosting their holdings by $5.3 billion in that time, according to figures from the Thai Bond Market Association. They also pumped $700 million into Thai equities during the period.

“Large money inflows in the domestic bond market have accelerated the baht’s strengthening,” Kampon Adireksombat, an economist at Tisco Securities Co. in Bangkok, said by phone. “Most investors are very optimistic about the Thai economic outlook from the government’s investment policies.”

Thailand’s economy, which shrank in the first quarter, can return to growth rates of between 5% and 6% as the military government’s policies help “jump-start” expansion, Pridiyathorn Devakula, a former finance minister and an adviser to junta leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha, said on July 21. On July 15, the National Council for Peace and Order, a group of military leaders, approved a budget starting Oct 1 with a 2% increase in investment in infrastructure projects.

The yield on sovereign bonds due April 2024 fell six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, this week to 3.77%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It dropped to a two- month low of 3.68% on July 22.

Reversal Signal

The baht may retreat to between 32.50 and 33 per dollar by the end of this year as the pickup in domestic demand is likely to fall short of market expectations, Tisco’s Kampon said. The baht’s 14-day relative strength index was 29, holding for a fifth day below the 30 level that suggests to some traders that the currency is poised to weaken.

Thailand’s military leaders on July 22 delayed a decision on the transport ministry’s infrastructure investment plan to next week. The government said last month it plans to spend 2.4 trillion baht ($75 billion) to build and expand networks such as highways, railways and airports between 2015 and 2022.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Growth optimism boosts baht
« Reply #124 on: August 01, 2014, 01:19:43 PM »
Growth optimism boosts baht, bonds

The Thai baht posted its biggest two-month gain since October as overseas investors increased purchases of the nation’s assets on optimism the military government will revive economic growth.

The junta, which took control in a May 22 coup, approved an infrastructure investment plan on Tuesday that will include the construction of new railways, mass transit systems in Bangkok and nationwide highways. The economy, which shrank in the first quarter, may expand 5% in 2015 from about 2% this year on higher spending and a rebound in exports and tourism, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday.

The currency appreciated 1% in July to 32.128 per dollar as of 4.30pm, adding to June’s 1.2% gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached an eight-month high of 31.74 on July 23. Global funds bought a net $5.05 billion of local debt this month through Wednesday, the biggest inflow since February 2012, Thai Bond Market Association data show.

“There is room for more foreign fund inflows because Thailand’s economic outlook has turned more upbeat,” said Pongtharin Sapayanon, a fixed-income fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management. “Foreigners have raised their positions in Thai financial assets after selling them off during the political deadlock.”

The SET Index of Thai shares rose 1.1% in July for a sixth straight month of gains as overseas investors pumped a net $460 million into the nation’s equities through July 30, halting two months of outflows. It dropped 1% on Thursday.

In the local bond market, 10-year notes posted the first monthly gain in three. The yield on sovereign debt due in April 2024 fell 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, to 3.74%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached a two-month low of 3.68% on July 22.

"ING Groep NV predicts the yield will drop to 3.4% by year-end," Singapore-based economist Prakash Sakpal wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht, bonds rise for 3rd month
« Reply #125 on: August 29, 2014, 03:51:02 PM »
The Thai baht rose for a third month and bonds gained as the military-led government stoked an economic recovery, spurring inflows to the nation’s stocks.

The currency appreciated 0.5% in August to 31.95 per dollar as of 10:17am in Bangkok, taking its three-month advance to 2.7%, the best among 24 emerging-market exchange rates tracked by Bloomberg. Thailand attracted a net $76 million into equities during the month, adding to July's $427 million, stock exchange data show.

National Council for Peace and Order leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha has boosted state spending and restored political stability since a May 22 coup. Gross domestic product increased 0.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier, after contracting 0.5% in the previous three months. While the baht has rallied, gains may be subdued ahead of current-account data today that's forecast to show the surplus more than halved in July.

"As the military junta is making progress in revitalizing the economy after disruptions in the first quarter, we've seen a return of portfolio inflows, helping the baht recover some of the earlier losses," Jessica Liang, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd, wrote in a research note Thursday. "However, we remain cautious on the baht given its weak current-account cushion and uncertain political outlook."

Trade Data

The Bank of Thailand was expected to report today that the current-account surplus narrowed to $620 million in July from $1.84 billion in the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The baht was little changed today and for the week.

Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy may expand 5% in the next four quarters, central bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on Aug 27. Credit Suisse Group AG raised its 2015 growth estimate to 4.5% from 3.9%, Santitarn Sathirathai, a Singapore-based economist, wrote in a research note yesterday.

Overseas investors bought a net $181 million of the nation's debt this week through yesterday, according to Thai Bond Market Association data. The yield on the 3.625% government notes due in June 2023 fell 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 3.46% in August, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. That adds to the 17 basis point drop in the past two months. It declined two basis points today.

One-month implied volatility in the baht, a measure of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, rose three basis points today and 14% basis points this month to 4.45%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht gains on US Fed-induced inflows
« Reply #126 on: September 17, 2014, 01:21:51 PM »
The baht gained for a second day before the Bank of Thailand’s interest-rate meeting as speculation the US Federal Reserve will keep rates low for an extended period boosted demand for emerging-market assets.

The Thai central bank will hold borrowing costs at 2% today, according to all 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on Wednesday ahead of the decision at 2.30pm.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major counterparts, fell the most since June yesterday as the Fed started its two-day policy meeting.

“The baht is more stable along with other regional currencies as concern about an increase in US interest rates eases,” said Thammarat Kittisiripat, an analyst at TMB Bank Plc. “The central bank will maintain the benchmark interest rate at this low level for the rest of this year as the domestic economy still has a very slow recovery.”

The baht rose 0.1% to 32.214 per dollar as of 9.45am in Bangkok after earlier climbing as much as 0.2% to 32.184, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency advanced 0.1% on Tuesday, halting a six-day run of losses.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, was little changed at 4.96%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge has climbed 15 basis points this week.

Overseas investors bought a net US$37.7 million of the nation’s debt and equities on Tuesday, according to data from the stock exchange and Thai Bond Market Association.

Bond Market

The economy will improve next quarter and the government will focus on boosting exports and increasing the value of products, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha, who is also the junta leader, said Tuesday after a weekly Cabinet meeting. The appointed National Legislative Assembly also passed a budget bill calling for 2.575 trillion baht ($80 billion) in total spending for the fiscal year starting Oct. 1.

Government bonds of two, five and 10 years were little changed before the rate decision. The yield on the 5.4% notes due in July 2016 was at 2.48%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield fell seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, in the past three weeks. It reached 2.46% on Sept 12, the lowest level since June 20.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht is expected to remain weakened next week
« Reply #127 on: October 04, 2014, 06:23:12 PM »
BANGKOK, Oct 4 --
The Thai baht is projected to remain weakened during next week after it slipped to 32.50 baht per US dollar on Friday, its weakest position in the past three months, according to a report issued by Kasikorn Research Centre.
 
The Centre has projected that the Thai baht is expected to move between 32.35 – 32.65 baht per dollar next week as traders cautiously watch dollar movements early in the week while they take into account the latest U.S. employment data.
 
A report issued by the US Labor Department on Friday said US jobless rate declined to a six-year low of 5.9 per cent in September and that employers hired more workers than projected.
 
The unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since July 2008, down from 6.1 per cent.
 
Traders are also closely monitoring the US Federal Reserve and the number of unemployed applying for weekly welfare so that they could assess the direction of US interest rate, according to the Centre report.
 
The baht remained weak throughout this week due to buying of US dollar before the end of the third quarter and on concerns over the ongoing unrest situation in Hong Kong which has already depressed Asian currencies, it said.
 
Also, the baht was weak in line with net selling in the bond market and Thai equities by foreign investors while the greenback strengthened late in the week as investors adjusted their positions, the Centre added.

MCOT online news
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht falls on economic outlook
« Reply #128 on: November 04, 2014, 03:07:43 PM »
The baht declined for a 10th day, the longest losing streak since September 2011, and bonds gained on concern the economy’s outlook is deteriorating.

The baht declined 0.1% to 32.679 per dollar as of 9.55am, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.73 earlier, a five-month low.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, rose 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 4.84%.

Consumer prices rose 1.48% last month from a year earlier, the slowest pace in a year, the Commerce Ministry reported on Monday. That compares with the median estimate of 1.6% in a Bloomberg survey. The Finance Ministry cut its 2014 economic growth forecast last week to 1.2-1.7% from a previous estimate of 2%.

“Yesterday’s inflation data continue to show a weaker economic backdrop,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, a Singapore-based strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. “There’s still a question of how strong growth is going to be in Thailand.”

Five-year bonds advanced for a third day.

The yield on government notes due June 2019 slipped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.59%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

One-year interest-rate swaps dropped two basis points to 1.86%, below the central bank’s benchmark 2% policy rate. The contracts declined to 1.85% on Oct 16, the lowest since June, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht's weakening in line with other regional currencies
« Reply #129 on: December 09, 2014, 10:42:43 PM »
Baht's weakening in line with other regional currencies, BOT says

The Bank of Thailand says the weakening of the baht is in line with the depreciations of other currencies in the region caused by market speculation that the US Federal Reserve will be able to increase its policy interest rate faster than expected.
The latest market consensus is that the United States will increase its policy rate in the third quarter of 2015.

The US announcement on Friday of a better-than-expected increase in the non-farm payroll in November has led to a strengthening of the dollar, BOT Assistant Governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul said. The payroll increased by 321,000 positions, against expectations of only 230,000.

Chantavarn said the baht was currently in the middle of the park when compared with other currencies in the region.

Asset outflows remain normal, with foreigners still net-sellers in the capital market. In the first 11 months of the year, they net-sold around US$1 billion. Currently foreigners hold 10 per cent of Thai government bonds, she said.

According to the Bloomberg website, the baht was at 33.074 per US dollar as of 5.45pm yesterday.

Supavud Saicheua, director of Phatra Capital, said the baht could reach 34 next year on the strengthening of the dollar.

Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: baht has moved in line with regional currencies
« Reply #130 on: December 17, 2014, 06:57:17 PM »
Thailand’s Bonds Fall as Central Bank Keeps Key Rate Unchanged

Thailand’s 2023 government bonds fell for a third day after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged amid a selloff in emerging-market assets.

Sixteen of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the Bank of Thailand would keep its benchmark rate at 2 percent today, while seven forecast a 25-basis-point cut. Overseas investors have pulled $608 million from Thai stocks this month as crude oil’s slide to a five-year low and a plunge in the Russian ruble to a record deterred risk-taking.

The yield on government bonds due June 2023 climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.80 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That took this week’s increase to 10 basis points. The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET) of shares rose 1.2 percent, halting a six-day drop. The baht was steady at 32.95 per dollar.

“The central bank continues to highlight the slow pace of the recovery and appears willing to cut rates in the coming quarters if growth remains weak,” Barclays Plc analysts including Rahul Bajoria wrote in a research note. “We believe the balance of risks is towards the BoT providing further monetary accommodation in the first quarter, although this would be contingent on global financial stability.”

The baht has fallen 1.6 percent this quarter, declining along with 22 of the 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Federal Reserve may signal U.S. rate increases for 2015 after a policy meeting that ends today.

The Bank of Thailand has no plan to impose measures to limit fund outflows, Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul told reporters in Bangkok yesterday. No unusual capital outflows have been detected and the baht has moved in line with regional currencies, he said.

bloomberg
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #131 on: April 23, 2015, 02:00:08 PM »
BOT admits Thai baht continued to appreciate

BANGKOK, 23 April 2015, (NNT) - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has admitted that the Thai baht has recently appreciated, due to under-performing economic figures in the United States causing the dollar to depreciate.

BOT Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul stated that Asian currencies are also experiencing depreciation due to country-specific factors. He said these elements will be further explored during a meeting between the BOT and the Monetary Policy Committee on April 29.

However, he said that he believed Thailand’s economy in the second and third quarters would improve from the first quarter.

The National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand (NESDB) has forecast three percent growth in the first quarter of 2015. Mr. Prasarn has pointed out that the NESDB’s projection has two implications.

The governor explained that if the figure is compared to the same period last year, then it is considered high growth. However, if the figure is compared to the previous quarter, then growth is minimal.

NNT
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Offline Roger

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Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #132 on: April 25, 2015, 07:06:45 AM »
On UK Forex the interbank rate showed Baht 49.4 to the GBP at close yesterday. Good news. More please.
 

Offline Roger

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Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #133 on: April 28, 2015, 07:10:58 AM »
Baht 49.6 to GBP. More again please !
 

Online jivvy

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #134 on: April 28, 2015, 08:30:47 AM »

my UK pension  came yesterday @ 48.29 bahts to the pound :(
 

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #135 on: April 28, 2015, 02:13:32 PM »
Yes roger Good news. More please.

Buying Rates    Selling Rates  bangkokbank

  48.86            50.39    

So i've been told, you can open a pound account, then when you think the time is right, change up whatever you need.

The way uk has been performing well enuff said........

The euro

Buying Rates    Selling Rates

 34.91            36.12

I dread to think what you get at the airport.
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Offline Roger

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Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #136 on: April 29, 2015, 05:16:32 PM »
Baht 50.4 to GBP on my screen today !
Onwards and upwards - 75 would be nice.
 

Offline thaiga

Re: Baht has biggest weekly loss
« Reply #137 on: April 30, 2015, 06:16:04 PM »
Baht has biggest weekly loss

The baht dropped, capping its biggest weekly loss since 2013, as the Bank of Thailand eased curbs on fund outflows a day after unexpectedly cutting interest rates.

The central bank will raise limits on foreign-currency deposits at domestic banks and on overseas property investments, assistant governor Chantavarn Sucharitakul told a briefing on Thursday. It will also allow local investors to invest directly overseas and non-residents will be able to borrow more baht from local banks, he said.

“The central bank’s new currency measures and interest-rate reduction will accelerate the baht’s weakness faster than the market had expected,” Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, an economist at Kasikorn Research, said by phone. “The strong currency makes it harder for exporters.”

MORE HERE: Bangkokpost

I can hear roger shouting from here,comon the pound. there have been seven movements today @ bangkokbank

Buying Rates    Selling Rates

50.09    £££££      51.70   


36.38      €€€€€   37.64
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Offline thaiga

Re: Thailand takes a hammer to the baht
« Reply #138 on: May 06, 2015, 02:06:03 PM »
Thailand takes a hammer to the baht

 Thailand's baht has long out-muscled regional peers, but amid a stumbling economy, the central bank has pulled the plug on supporting the currency.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) last week sent a triple whammy to the markets: In a surprise move, it cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis-points to 1.5 percent. In its statement, the BOT mentioned its concerns about the continued strength of the baht. That was followed up with the easing of some of the country's capital controls, which will allow more funds to flow out of the country.

LOTS MORE HERE: cnbc
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Online Taman Tun

Re: Baht strongest in 2 months
« Reply #139 on: May 06, 2015, 04:19:19 PM »
Oh s*it, I just took a Contract in THB. But as Harold Wilson once said " The pound in your pocket..."  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-IHVQU9BSks
We are masters of the unsaid words, but slaves of those we let slip out. Churchill
 

Offline thaiga

Re: Pound jumps
« Reply #140 on: May 08, 2015, 01:22:34 PM »

Buying Rates    Selling Rates

50.09    £££££      51.70   

Pound jumps

                                  Buying Rates    Selling Rates
                   
GBP    United Kingdom    50.10       51.71  7/5/2015   

GBP    United Kingdom    51.08       52.72  8/5/2015   
   
The pound has has increased by almost 1 bht overnight.    @bangkokbank
   
Pound jumps above $1.54 after election exit poll puts Conservatives in the lead

The pound jumped to its highest level in a week on Thursday after a closely watched exit poll from the U.K. general election showed surprisingly strong support for David Cameron’s Conservative Party.

marketwatch
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht sinks to weakest level since 2009
« Reply #141 on: May 12, 2015, 02:29:11 PM »
Baht sinks to weakest level since 2009

The baht, Asia’s worst-performing currency of the past month, sank to its weakest level since September 2009 as global funds reduced holdings of the nation’s bonds.

The baht fell 0.2% to 33.759 a dollar as of 9.43am in Bangkok, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency has lost 3.6% in the past month. A gauge of dollar strength climbed 0.4% on Monday as investors bet the Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates this year while global peers retain unprecedented easing.

FULL ARTICLE: Bangkokpost
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht to remain volatile for now
« Reply #142 on: May 22, 2015, 10:37:51 AM »
Baht to remain volatile for now, BOT warns

THE BAHT will continue to be volatile, the Bank of Thailand has warned, suggesting that business operators keep guarding against foreign-exchange risks.
Meanwhile markets are keeping an eye on the monetary policies of major economies and the baht's depreciation will help reduce Thailand's competitive disadvantages, the central bank said.

Vachira Arromdee, senior director of the Financial Markets Department at the BOT, said the Thai currency would tend to con-tinue its volatility in the next periods, given internal and external factors.

Markets are still watching for |the United States' likely interest-|rate increase, and monetary stimulus in Japan and the European Union.

Markets are still concerned over China's economic slowdown as that could affect exports, which have contracted in Asia since the beginning of the year.

Given uncertainties over the global economic recovery and its fragility, there remains possibility for two-way directions and business operators should shield themselves against foreign-exchange risks, Vachira said.

Since the beginning of the year, the baht had been appreciating against the currencies of Thailand's trading partners and competitors partly because of drops in global oil prices. In March, however, the Thai currency started moving with volatility in two directions, following the country's economic and monetary-policy movements, US moves and economic situations across the globe.

Vachira noted that most US |economic figures had been weak of late, prompting the US dollar's depreciation against regional currencies in this region, including the baht.

This month, the baht has moved in a range of 33.18-33.88 per US dollar, and since the beginning of the year, it has depreciated by about 2 per cent. Given such rapid changes, the baht's volatility rate rose from 3-4 per cent to 6-7 per cent. However, that is still lower than the currency volatility seen in other countries in the region.

Exporters see relief..........

FULL ARTICLE: The nation
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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht continues downward trend
« Reply #143 on: June 04, 2015, 03:32:54 PM »
Baht continues downward trend

The downward trend of the Thai baht continues on the back of US dollar rally.

As of 2.25pm, the baht was at 33.74 per dollar, from yesterday close of 33.64. It recently fell to the six-year low at 33.78-79. The greenback has also strengthened against other major currencies as well as the currencies in Asean.

Yesterday, the dollar was above 13,000 Indonesian rupiah, the level unseen since 1998.

The baht has fallen sharply since the Bank of Thailand cut the policy rates while the central bank governor signalled the bias towards a weaker curreny, to revive the domestic economy.

Many currency strategists predicted the dollar upswing would start next month on expectations that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will set the stage for a hike in the third quarter at the upcoming policy meeting.

The Fed has said that a rate rise, which most economists expect will come in September, will be dependent on improving economic data. Friday’s employment report could provide a spark if new jobs created in May exceed the 225,000 market consensus.

"The onus on economic data to surprise sharply to the upside over the next few weeks is fairly high, else the Fed may be unable to prepare the market at the June FOMC for hikes commencing in the third quarter," analysts at Barclays wrote in a note.

The US currency is up more than 20 per cent since last summer.

What could have a big impact is a resolution to the stand-off between Greece and the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. Currency speculators have been long dollars and short euros in recent days as worries over a potential Greece default have risen.

In the latest Reuters poll, forecasters have moderately upgraded their expectations of the euro, although they expect the common-currency to trade lower in the coming twelve months.

The euro is expected to fall to $1.05 in six months and further to $1.04 in a year.

But the number of analysts who forecast the euro to trade at or below parity against the dollar has fallen - from 22 in April, 19 in May to 15 in the current poll.

The poll also showed strategists were confident that sterling will be less vulnerable to a dollar rally.

Although the consensus that the pound will weaken to $1.50 in six months and $1.51 in a year, from $1.53 currently, this represents a significantly stronger set of forecasts when compared with the May poll.

After the centre-right Conservative party unexpectedly won an overall majority in May’s election, easing political uncertainty, a majority of the common contributors raised their forecasts for the pound from last month’s poll.

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht gains slightly after Fed keeps US policy rate steady
« Reply #144 on: June 19, 2015, 12:39:55 PM »
Baht gains slightly after Fed keeps US policy rate steady

The baht strengthened slightly after the US Federal Reserve decided to maintain its policy interest rate.
The Thai currency gained by 0.9 per cent yesterday, to 33.59 against the US dollar, after closing at 33.62 on Wednesday.

"The US dollar depreciated after the Fed's meeting, which has contributed to the slight appreciation of the baht, but the movement is normal and is in line with other currencies in the region," said Bank of Thailand spokesman Chirathep Senivongs Na Ayudhya.

Kasikorn Research managing director Charl Kengchon said Thailand would briefly escape the pressure from potential capital outflows. The baht movement would mainly be influenced by US economic indicators, he added.

Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday said the interest-rate decision was still up in the air and that she wanted "more decisive evidence" that the US labour market was healing, and that wages would increase beyond their current "subdued pace".

While an increase in the Fed funds rate from the current level of 0-0.25 per cent is anticipated in September, the Fed lowered its 2015 economic growth forecast for the US economy to 1.8-2.0 per cent versus the range of 2.3-2.7 per cent that was projected earlier.

Tim Leelahaphan, Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) economist, said the comments Yellen made after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were "less hawkish than expected" but the securities firm maintains that the Fed rate increase will lift off in September at the earliest.

"The FOMC has revised down the US economic projection and it has revised down the path of the rate increase, while Yellen has also commented that its decision on the interest rate would be data-dependent, so the overall comments seem to be toned down," he said.

Maybank expects a 50-basis-points increase in 2015 and 100 basis points in 2016, and the momentum of the increase will be in a "go-stop-go" motion. The US policy interest rate has been in the range of 0-0.25 per cent since 2008.

Izumi Devalier, an economist at HSBC, said the important thing regarding the Fed rate increase was how quick it would be and where it ended up, and there was still a lot of uncertainty there.

Rate hike expected in Dec

"We expected the Fed to raise the interest rate in December, but in a very gradual manner, and that should be good for Asia's economy, as a very gradual rate normalisation in the United States means that there will be less volatility in Asia," she said.

HSBC expects an increase of 25 basis points this year and 50 basis points next year.

One risk that people should be keeping an eye on is a "very sharp and abrupt steepening" of the US long-term bond yield curve as the yield curve is quite flat. The short-term interest rate is zero and the 10-year yield is fluctuating at 2-2.5 per cent, but there are signs that the curve has steepened a bit and it could move up quite sharply in the future from a variety of factors, Devalier said.

"If the negative term premium becomes positive and if that happens in a very aggressive manner, it would be very disruptive for many Asian economies that have current-account deficits and high-level foreign ownership in portfolio debt, such as Malaysia and Indonesia," she said.

Thailand is not one of the countries at risk at the moment as foreign ownership in Thai government bonds is only at 11 per cent and the Kingdom is expected to have a current-account surplus of around US$12 billion this year, she concluded.

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht weakens
« Reply #145 on: June 29, 2015, 11:59:52 PM »
Baht weakens to $/33.85

Thai baht weakened to 33.85-86 against US dollar at the open Monday, as most emerging Asian currencies led by the Malaysian ringgit lost ground.
"Failures to reach the bailout package that lead to bank closure weaken the euro against the greenback," said a currency trader in Bangkok. He expected the Thai baht to move in the range of 33.75-95 today.

Some economists foresee the $/34 rate soon. The level was last seen in 2009.

The ringgit today traded at a 10-year low as Greece looked to be heading for a default on its debt, causing investors to head for safer assets. The ringgit came under additional pressure due to concern that Fitch Ratings may downgrade Malaysia’s credit rating due to the debt problems of state fund 1MDB.

South Korea’s won slid to a 3-1/2-month low, while the Indonesian rupiah fell to around a 17-year trough.

Emerging Asian currencies are likely to stay under pressuredue to a strong US dollar and growing risk aversion, with the prospect of Greece being forced out of the euro, analysts said.

"The stronger dollar outlook coupled with risk-off sentiment emanating from Greek risks is clearly negative for Asian FX," said Heng Koon How, Credit Suisse Private Bank’s senior currency strategist in Singapore. "Particularly, we are negative on ringgit because of an imminent sovereign credit rating downgrade," he said.

The ringgit lost 0.4 per cent to 3.7830 per dollar, its weakest since July 2005. Malaysian companies bought the dollar for month-end payments, hurting the local currency further. The Malaysian unit’s downside was limited by caution over possible intervention by the central bank to support the worst-performing Asian currency so far this year.

The Korean won fell nearly 1 per cent at one stage to 1,127.9 perdollar, its weakest since March 18. The South Korean currency pared some of its losses as exporters chased it for month-end settlements, and that caused some traders to cover short positions in the won.

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht sinks to 6-year low
« Reply #146 on: July 08, 2015, 04:07:25 PM »
Baht sinks to 6-year low

The baht plunged to its weakest level since September 2009 amid sustained outflows from local assets and a selloff in Chinese equities.

Global funds have withdrawn a net US$199 million from stocks and bonds this month, taking total outflows for 2015 to $1.2 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The benchmark SET Index of local shares fell 0.5% on Wednesday after dropping to an almost seven-month low Monday as investors grapple with potential risks stemming from Greece's likely exit from the euro and a stock rout in China.

The baht declined for a third day, retreating 0.2% to 34.007 a dollar as of 11:49am in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency, which has lost 4.3% in the past three months in Asia's second-worst performance, sank as low as 34.055 earlier. A gauge of dollar strength rose for a fourth day.

"Foreign outflows signal a weaker outlook for the baht," said Thanomsri Fongarunrung, an economist at Phatra Securities in Bangkok. "The ongoing anxiety in China's stock market and its economy has further weakened sentiment for the baht and other currencies in the region."

China, Asia's largest economy, is the second-biggest export market for Thailand after the US, accounting for about 11% of total overseas shipments in the January-May period, according to a commerce ministry statement dated June 26.

Sovereign bonds climbed, pushing the 10-year yield down four basis points to 2.89%, on course for its lowest close since June 3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht weakens further on drought, Fed bet
« Reply #147 on: July 24, 2015, 12:02:24 AM »
Baht weakens further on drought, Fed bet

The baht is poised to breaking the 35 level against the US dollar for the first time since 2009, after weakening by 2% this week.

Chantavarn Sucharitakul, assistant governor for financial markets operations, said the local currency had depreciated quickly this week due to both internal and external factors.

The US Federal Reserve will likely increase the policy interest rate this year since the economy is recovering steadily.

Gold prices, which plummeted below US$1,1oo an ounce, have triggered higher demand for the precious metal and the US dollar.

At home, worries about the economy and impacts from the drought, as well as public investment delays, have led to downward revisions of economic forecasts in the latter half of this year.

"Investors have sold some Thai assets as a result, while importers slightly accelerated their purchases. In any case, the Bank of Thailand has yet to find any signs of speculation.

"Although a weak baht is necessary to support economic recovery, too fast depreciation might create volatilities and hamper adjustments by the real sector. We're monitoring the situation closely," she said.

Since the beginning of the year, the baht weakness is in line with regional currencies. It traded at 34.5366/9336 at 8pm on Thursday.

In Asia, Bloomberg reported South Korea's won led losses as a report showed the economy expanded 2.2% in the three months through June, missing estimates and decelerating for a fifth straight quarter.

Asian exports are already contracting as growth falters in China, the top destination for many of the region's manufactured goods. Global funds have cut their equity holdings in six of eight Asian markets tracked by Bloomberg in July.

"There's a shift in investor interest from Asia to places like Europe due to growth considerations and expectations for higher yields," said Saktiandi Supaat, head of foreign-exchange research at Malayan Banking Bhd. in Singapore. "Growth fundamentals seem a bit weak for Asia."

South Korea's won fell as much as 1.1% to a three-year low against the dollar, followed by a 0.4% loss in Malaysia's ringgit. The baht dropped 0.2 percent. Indonesia's rupiah declined to the weakest since the Asian financial crisis that roiled markets in 1997-98.

Falling commodity prices are also weighing on raw-material exporters such as Malaysia, whose currency is Asia's worst performer this year amid a slump in Brent crude. The Bloomberg Commodity Index slid Wednesday to the lowest close since 2002, dragged down by a plunge in gold.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region's 10 major currencies, was little changed after earlier falling as much as 0.2% to a five-year low.

Growth in China, the region's largest economy, is projected to slow to 7% this year, the least since 1990. Overseas investors sold a combined net $2.5 billion of shares in South Korea and Taiwan this month, both of whom count China as their biggest export markets.

Elsewhere on Thursday, India's rupee dropped 0.2% and the Philippine peso fell 0.3%. Taiwan's dollar depreciated 0.3%, while the yuan and Vietnam's dong were both little changed at 6.2095 and 21,818, respectively.

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht plunges 'quite fast'
« Reply #148 on: July 24, 2015, 11:10:26 AM »
Baht plunges 'quite fast' to six-year low against US dollar



The continued strength of the US dollar and the weak gold price have led to the baht depreciating to a six-year low, trading at Bt34.84 to the greenback yesterday.
Chantavarn Sucharitakul, the Bank of Thailand's assistant governor for Financial Markets Operations Group, admitted that the baht is dropping "quite fast", losing about 2 per cent against the dollar this week.

This is faster than the depreciation of other currencies in the region, which have depreciated 0.3-1.5 per cent.

"The external factor is driven by market speculation that the US Federal Reserve will hike its policy interest rate within this year based on the Fed's comments and recent positive US economic data while the price of gold has dropped below US$1,100 per ounce, which has led to increased demand for the precious metal and demand for the US dollar as well," she explained.

In addition, there are concerns that Thailand's economic performance could be hit by the ongoing drought and the delay in the government's investment projects.

Such an outlook has prompted analysts to lower the country's gross domestic product forecast for this year, with second-half growth to be less than the first half.

Chantavarn said the BOT has not seen any irregularity in the forex markets with relation to the baht.

"The weakening of the baht is needed to support the economic recovery but too rapid a deprecation would make it difficult for the private sector to adapt so the BOT is keeping a close watch," she said.

According to Kasikornbank, the baht is projected to drop below Bt35 to the dollar in the fourth quarter of this year, trading within the target of Bt35.25.

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said the weakening baht has benefited the export sector, but importers will be negatively affected, especially those importing consumer and luxury goods.

Kasikornbank said in a report that Thai authorities had acknowledged that the use of the exchange rate during this time is more effective than cutting interest rates to buoy the flagging economy.

Vallop said imported raw materials, which will be re-exported, would not be affected significantly as it can be offset by foreign exchange income.

However, imports of machinery or capital goods may also be delayed to avoid a higher cost due to the baht's weakness, but long-term projects should not be affected.

Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said the baht's weakness should boost export growth in the second half of the year after facing a contraction in the first six months with June shipments estimated to be down 6-7 per cent year on year.

Exports in the first half of the year dropped about 5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Charl Kengchon, managing director of Kasikorn Research Centre, said the US dollar has been supported by recent positive economic numbers, which had led to the deprecation of currencies in the Southeast Asia region, including the Thai baht.

"The market expects the US Federal Reserve to hike the US interest rate in September, which has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the depreciation of the baht, which is a common factor for the region, while the drop in the price of gold has led people to buy gold. This has led to the baht depreciating even further since gold deals would require US dollars as the currency for transaction," he said.

"The capital outflow from Thailand's stock markets is also contributing to the weakening of the baht," he added.

While the baht dropped to a six-year low yesterday, gold prices are now at a five-year low, trading at $1091 on July 22.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index has dropped by 3.33 per cent from the beginning of the year, with capital outflow of Bt35.82 billion to date, including about Bt20 billion this month.

Tim Leelahaphan, Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) economist and assistant vice president of its Research Department said the firm still expects the baht to be around Bt34.50 per US dollar by the end of the third quarter.

"Short-term factors from foreign speculation and the strengthening of the US dollar might push the baht to go beyond Bt35 per dollar," he added.

Prinn Panitchpakdi, country head at CLSA Securities (Thailand), said the baht might go past Bt35 per US dollar as cash is flowing back to the US.

"CLSA expect the baht to be at Bt35-Bt35.5 by the end of the year but it can swing between Bt33.8-Bt35.5 in the next 5-6 months from the US rate hike and the expected improvement of Thailand's economy next year," he said.

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Offline thaiga

Re: Baht weakening has sapped Thailand’s foreign reserves
« Reply #149 on: July 25, 2015, 12:21:08 PM »
Baht weakening has sapped Thailand’s foreign reserves

The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars as of July 17, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The foreign reserves cutback was based on the calculation of the exchange rate of 34.84 baht per dollar.  Just one week earlier, foreign reserves stood at US$158.8 billion or 5.39 trillion baht.

Forward position was kept at US$ 19.5 billion compared to last week’s US$19.3 billion resulting to the reduction of net foreign reserves to US$176.8 billion.

Financial market analysts of commercial banks attributed the drop in foreign reserves to steady weakening of the baht against US dollars. They predicted that the baht would continue to weaken but it should not be a matter of serious concern because Thailand’s foreign reserves are at high level and are sufficient to maintain economic stability.

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